Lazio have a direct opportunity to close the gap on the top six as they welcome Como to the Stadio Olimpico for the closing fixture of matchday 21 in Serie A on Monday evening.
The hosts sit ninth in the Italian top-flight standings and are six points adrift of Cesc Fabregas’s side, who occupy sixth, meaning victory here would significantly strengthen the capital club’s European push.
Lazio will be looking to build on their narrow victory at Hellas Verona last time out, a contest in which the Biancocelesti were perhaps fortunate to take maximum points. Little separated the two sides in attack, with 10 shots apiece, and Victor Nelsson’s 79th-minute own goal proved decisive. That win also brought an end to Maurizio Sarri’s four-game winless run (D3, L1), with his side now targeting back-to-back victories for the first time this season.
Meanwhile, Como saw their four-match unbeaten streak (W3, D1) come to an end in midweek with a 3-1 home defeat to AC Milan, a scoreline that did not fully reflect the balance of play. The Lariani registered 18 shots, eight of which were on target — twice as many as their opponents — but will hope a similarly encouraging display brings greater reward on Monday.
How the bookies view it: Not much separates the sides
This encounter appears finely balanced, with little to choose between the two teams. Lazio are priced at 17/10 on Ladbrokes, reflecting a 37.0% probability of victory, while Como are available at 2.88, equating to a 34.8% chance. The draw is priced at 19/10.
Head-to-head: A balanced affair since Como’s top-flight return
Since Como returned to Serie A at the start of last season, the sides have met three times, with one win apiece and a draw, the most recent encounter going in favour of the Lariani.
However, Lazio hold the edge across the wider history of the fixture, recording 14 victories from their last 30 meetings (D10, L6).
Players to watch: Nico Paz could be a handful
Nico Paz has contributed six goals and six assists for Como in the league this season, and despite drawing a blank last time out, he remained a constant threat, registering four shots on target.
While an away setting could prompt a more cautious approach and potentially reduce Como’s attacking output, Paz should still find opportunities to test the Lazio defence. The Spaniard averages 1.5 shots on target per 90 minutes in Serie A this season, making the 2/5 on Bet365 for him to register at least one shot on target appealing.
Probable lineups
Lazio do not appear to have any fresh injury concerns, while Como will remain without attackers Álvaro Morata and Assane Diao.
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini; Vecino, Cataldi, Taylor; Isaksen, Noslin, Zaccagni
Como (4-2-3-1): Butez; Smolcic, Ramon, Carlos, Valle; Perrone, Da Cunha; Vojvoda, Paz, Rodriguez; Douvikas
Anything else that catches the eye?
Eight of Lazio’s last nine matches across all competitions have been level at half-time, making the 19/20 on Ladbrokes an attractive option.
Meanwhile, seven of those games have produced more goals after the break, so the 11/10 on Bet365 for more second-half goals offers solid value.
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