Leicester City turned 77% possession into only 0.48 non-penalty xG during their laboured Carabao Cup win over Northampton Town, a figure that highlights the attacking problems facing Russell Martin. Their next test comes at Portman Road on Tuesday, where Premier League Ipswich Town await in a 7.45pm kick-off.
The fixture also follows direct summer business between the clubs. Ipswich signed Abdul Fatawu from Leicester for £20m, while Wes Burns moved back in the opposite direction only days before the teams were drawn together.
Gary O'Neil made a winning start after replacing Kieran McKenna, with Ipswich beating Sunderland 2-1 in their Premier League opener. Substitute Jack Clarke scored the winner against his former club in the 90th minute, curling into the far corner after Sunderland lost possession inside Ipswich territory.
Julio Enciso created the opening goal with a driving midfield run before fellow debutant Emersonn finished. Sunderland equalised through Nilson Angulo's free-kick shortly before half-time, but Ipswich recovered to take all three points.
O'Neil started seven summer signings following an outlay of around £150m, making the late victory particularly encouraging for a new group. Ipswich generated 1.39 non-penalty xG despite Sunderland controlling more possession, showing they carried a consistent threat even while adapting to a new manager and several new players.
Leicester's opening League One fixture produced a 1-1 draw at Notts County, but their second game brought a more damaging result. Burton Albion won 2-1 at Leicester after moving two goals ahead inside 25 minutes, with the home crowd making its frustration clear.
Oliver Skipp received a straight red card before the half-hour mark for a cynical foul, leaving Martin's side to play for more than an hour with 10 men. Burns pulled one back against his former club with his first Leicester goal, but the hosts were unable to find an equaliser.
Martin accepted responsibility for Leicester's poor psychological preparation and felt his players lacked intensity during the opening 25 minutes. Skipp's suspension should also remove an important midfield option from a squad already short of leadership.
The previous cup round did little to improve the picture. Leicester beat League Two Northampton 1-0 but created only 0.48 non-penalty xG despite dominating possession. That lack of cutting edge is a major concern before facing a Premier League defence, particularly when their own back line has conceded chances regularly.
How the bookies view it
Ipswich are 8/13 to win in 90 minutes, implying a 61.9% chance. The draw is priced at 10/3 and carries an implied probability of 23.1%, while Leicester are 17/4 at 19%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 13/20, implying a 60.6% chance. Both teams to score is priced at 7/10 and carries an implied probability of 58.8%.
Head to head: Foxes have a strong record over the Tractor Boys
Leicester have won seven of the previous 14 meetings between the clubs, with Ipswich recording two victories and the other five ending level.
Ipswich have failed to win any of the latest six encounters, although four finished as draws. The most recent meeting ended 1-1 at Portman Road in March 2026, while Leicester's record shows they have rarely been comfortably beaten in this fixture.
Player to watch: Sindre Walle Egeli to step up in second season
Sindre Walle Egeli made 28 appearances during his first season with Ipswich, starting 18 and contributing four goals and one assist as the club won promotion. He operated mainly in attacking midfield but also featured across the front line.
One of those goals came against Leicester during the 1-1 draw at Portman Road in March, giving him relevant form against Tuesday's opponents.
Egeli is expected to feature in Ipswich's front three as O'Neil rotates following the win over Sunderland. A home cup tie against League One opposition provides a suitable opportunity to build on his first season in English football.
Predicted line-ups
Ipswich Town (4-2-3-1): Walton; Furlong, O'Shea, Kipre, Ouattara; Humphreys, Ogbene; McAteer, Egeli, Mehmeti; Akpom.
Leicester City (4-1-4-1): McCarthy; Aluko, Okoli, Souttar, Thomas; Choudhury; Burns, Braybrooke, Cullen, Watson; Reid.
Anything else catch the eye?
The main bet is Ipswich to win and over 2.5 goals. The individual markets price Ipswich at 8/13, implying 61.9%, and over 2.5 at 13/20, implying 60.6%.
Ipswich produced 1.39 non-penalty xG against Premier League opposition in their opening match, while Leicester managed only 0.48 during their cup win over League Two Northampton. The difference in attacking quality becomes more significant when placed alongside the two-division gap.
Leicester have also conceded an average of 1.52 non-penalty xG across their league matches. They allowed Burton to score twice inside 25 minutes at home, while Skipp's expected suspension removes another player capable of protecting the defence.
O'Neil should rotate, but Ipswich's summer spending has created greater depth across the squad. The predicted team still contains established senior players and several attacking options capable of exploiting Leicester's defensive problems.
Home advantage also matters because Ipswich should control territory even with a changed line-up. Leicester have dominated possession without consistently turning it into clear chances, which leaves them vulnerable when moves break down and opponents attack the spaces behind them.
The main risk is Ipswich's recent head-to-head record, with no wins across six meetings and four draws during that sequence. Rotation also introduces uncertainty around their attacking fluency.
Leicester's current performances carry more weight than those previous meetings. Martin's side have taken one point from two League One games, created little against Northampton and conceded chances at a high rate. Ipswich arrive with stronger form, greater squad depth and a major advantage in individual quality.
Backing Ipswich alone looks logical, but combining the home win with over 2.5 goals better reflects Leicester's defensive record and the likelihood of Ipswich creating several clear chances. Leicester have enough attacking experience to contribute, although the hosts are also capable of clearing the line themselves.
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