Everton vs Chelsea takes place at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday in the Premier League with both sides separated by five points and chasing a strong finish in the top half.
Everton arrive in mixed form with a W4-D3-L3 record across the last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 11. Their recent five game spell stands at W2-D0-L3, highlighting inconsistency.
At home they average 1.20 goals scored and concede 1.27, while only 33% of matches produce over 2.5 goals. Their underlying numbers show a steady but unspectacular profile, with recent xG around 1.28 and xGA at 1.13 across the last four matches, returning 5.91 xPTS and six actual points.
Chelsea travel with a stronger attacking profile despite a demanding schedule. Over the last 10 matches they hold a W5-D2-L3 record, scoring 20 and conceding 13, while their last five games show W1-D2-L2 with eight goals scored.
Their process remains strong with 2.28 xG across the last four matches and 8.49 xPTS, although they underperformed with four points. Away from home they are one of the most potent sides in the league, scoring 30 goals across 15 matches, an average of 2.00 per game.
Defensively Chelsea have shown vulnerability, conceding 1.14 xGA in recent matches and 1.20 goals per away game. Everton’s home record and controlled tempo contrast with Chelsea’s higher intensity style, creating a clash between structure and attacking output.
Both teams arrive with enough quality in forward areas and inconsistency at the back to suggest an open contest shaped by Chelsea’s attacking edge and Everton’s ability to compete at Hill Dickenson Stadium.
Head to Head: Chelsea hold the edge
The head to head record between Everton and Chelsea across the last 20 meetings shows a clear Blues edge with 10 wins compared to the Toffees' five, alongside five draws. Chelsea have scored 32 goals in that run compared to Everton’s 13, averaging 1.60 goals per game to Everton’s 0.65.
Recent meetings highlight a tighter pattern, with four of the last six producing two goals or fewer, including 2-0, 1-0, and 0-0 score lines. Everton have shown they can compete at home with wins and draws, but Chelsea have taken control in recent seasons with back to back wins in 2025. Overall, the data points to Chelsea’s attacking superiority against Everton’s more controlled approach.
Players to watch: Keane to capitalise on Chelsea set piece issues
Michael Keane stands out for a shot on target angle due to the clear overlap between Chelsea’s defensive issues and Everton’s set piece strength. Chelsea have conceded 14 goals from set plays with 14.79 xG against, one of the highest totals in the league, which shows they allow both volume and quality chances in these situations.
Everton are well equipped to exploit this. They have produced 131 shots and 12.34 xG from set pieces, with a 39.70% shot share and 34.28% xG share, highlighting how often they create from dead ball scenarios.
Keane is a key part of that threat. He has taken 21 shots this season with six on target and scored three goals, a strong return for a centre-back. He has also posted multiple matches with one or more shots, including four in one game against Aston Villa.
Given Chelsea’s weakness and Everton’s delivery, Keane is likely to get chances, making one shot on target a strong angle
Predicted line-ups
Everton 4-2-3-1: Pickford; O'Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Mykolenko; Gueye, Garner; McNeil, Dewsbury-Hall, Ndiaye; Beto.
Chelsea 4-2-3-1: Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Hato, Cucurella; Caicedo, Santos; Fernandez, Palmer, Garnacho; Joao Pedro.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score and over 2.5 cards stands out as the strongest angle when combining attacking output, defensive trends, and discipline data.
Chelsea’s away profile drives the goal expectation. They average 2.00 goals scored per game on the road and have failed to score in only 7% of away matches. Their recent attacking data supports this, producing 2.28 xG across the last four matches along with 7.5 shots inside the box and 6.0 big chances created.
However, they concede regularly, allowing 1.20 goals per away game and posting 1.14 xGA in recent matches. That defensive level aligns with a 73% both teams to score rate away from home.
Everton’s numbers complement this setup. They score 1.20 goals per home match and concede 1.27, while their recent games show a balanced profile with 5.0 shots inside the box for and 5.5 against. Their lower scoring output is offset by Chelsea’s defensive vulnerability and the fact Everton avoid failing to score in 73% of home fixtures.
The card angle is equally strong. Chelsea see both teams booked in 87% of matches, while Everton contribute to a 67% both booked rate. Over 2.5 cards lands in 73% of Chelsea games and 73% of Everton home matches, with over 3.5 also hitting 67% for both teams.
Game state supports this. Chelsea’s aggressive attacking style increases transition moments and fouls, while Everton’s structure leads to physical contests. The combination of high both teams to score rates, consistent chance creation, and strong card trends makes both teams to score and over 2.5 cards the most aligned selection.
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