England and Croatia meet at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on Wednesday night in a Group L opener between two nations whose recent World Cup history is closely intertwined.
Croatia's extra-time victory in the 2018 World Cup semi-final remains one of the defining moments for both countries, but eight years later the landscape looks very different. England arrive in Texas as one of the tournament favourites after a flawless qualifying campaign under Thomas Tuchel, while Croatia enter the competition with an ageing squad and a manager who has already signalled a cautious approach. Here are our expert predictions, stats and top betting tips.
Tuchel has transformed England into one of the most organised sides in international football. England won all eight of their World Cup qualifiers, scored 22 goals and conceded none, producing one of the strongest qualifying campaigns of any nation. Their average xGF across those matches was 1.56, while opponents generated just 0.51 xGA per game, highlighting England's balance between attack and defence.
The 4-2-3-1 system has quickly become established. Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson provide protection in midfield, allowing Jude Bellingham greater freedom between the lines. Bukayo Saka remains England's primary creative outlet from wide areas, while Harry Kane arrives after the most productive club season of his career. England's preparations included comfortable 3-0 victories over both New Zealand and Costa Rica, with the only blemish a narrow 1-0 defeat to Japan in an experimental friendly without several key starters.
Croatia continue to outperform expectations at major tournaments but there are signs this squad is approaching the end of a cycle. Zlatko Dalic guided his side through qualifying unbeaten, although the standard of opposition offered limited evidence of how they would cope against elite teams. Their final warm-up matches raised further concerns. Croatia generated just 0.43 xG in a defeat to Belgium and were second best on the underlying numbers in a victory over Slovenia, losing the xG battle 2.11 to 1.23.
Dalic has already outlined his plans for this fixture. “We will certainly be tougher and more defensive against England, playing with more midfielders.” That admission provides a clear indication of Croatia's priorities. Their objective appears to be avoiding defeat rather than taking the game to England.
How the bookies view it
England are priced at 3/4, implying a 57.1% probability of victory. Croatia are available at 9/2, implying 18.2%, while the draw is 14/5, implying 26.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 6/5, implying a 45.5% probability. BTTS is available at 11/10, implying 47.6%.
Head to head: England have the advantage
England and Croatia have met four times since the 2018 World Cup. England have won two, drawn one and lost one, with all four meetings producing under 2.5 goals. Those matches have averaged just 1.50 goals per game.
England recorded a 1-0 victory at Euro 2020 and a 2-1 Nations League win in November 2018. The other two meetings were Croatia's 2-1 extra-time success in Moscow and a 0-0 Nations League draw. The rivalry has generally been tight, but the low-scoring trend stands out across every recent encounter.
Player to watch: Is Harry Kane the best striker in the world?
Kane remains England's most influential player and the focal point of everything they do in possession. Croatia's defensive gameplan will be built around limiting his involvement, although recent evidence suggests few teams have managed that successfully.
The Bayern Munich striker has just completed the best scoring season of his career, finishing with 67 goals in 59 appearances across all competitions. He also scored 14 times in the Champions League and signed off his club campaign with a hat-trick in the DFB-Pokal final.
His England qualifying numbers were equally impressive. Kane started all eight qualifiers, scored eight goals, registered 31 shots and hit the target 17 times. Averaging close to four shots per game, he remains one of the highest-volume forwards in world football.
He also arrives in Dallas having scored in each of his last three England appearances. His combination play with Bellingham and Saka remains central to England's attacking structure, while his movement inside the penalty area continues to separate him from most international strikers.
Croatia may be forced to start Marin Pongracic alongside the 21-year-old Luka Vuskovic if Duje Caleta-Car fails to recover from injury. That pairing would face a significant challenge against Kane's movement, aerial ability and experience. England's strength from set-pieces only increases the pressure, with Rice, Saka, Marcus Rashford and Bellingham all capable of delivering dangerous balls into the box.
Predicted lineups
England 4-2-3-1: Pickford; James, Stones, Guehi, O'Reilly; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Bellingham, Rashford; Kane.
Croatia 3-4-2-1: Livakovic; Gvardiol, Pongracic, Vuskovic; Stanisic, Modric, Kovacic, Perisic; Pasalic, Kramaric; Budimir.
Anything else catch the eye?
Croatia's switch to a 3-4-2-1 is the key tactical development ahead of this match. Dalic has confirmed the system is being used specifically to provide additional defensive security against England. Josko Gvardiol is expected to operate as part of a back three rather than an attacking full-back, while Ivan Perisic will be deployed as a wing-back.
The concern is whether Croatia can withstand sustained pressure for 90 minutes. Belgium exposed them repeatedly in their final warm-up game and England possess many of the same qualities. Tuchel's side press aggressively, recover possession quickly and have midfielders capable of sustaining attacks deep inside opposition territory.
The Elo ratings reinforce England's advantage. England enter the tournament with a rating of 2024, compared to Croatia's 1912. The gap has increased steadily over the past 12 months as England have improved under Tuchel while Croatia's rating has declined.
Conditions should also favour England. With AT&T Stadium's roof closed and climate control maintaining comfortable temperatures, the physical demands will be determined by intensity rather than heat. England's younger squad appears better equipped for that type of contest than a Croatian side still heavily reliant on experienced veterans.
Croatia's defensive approach, their 0.43 xG against Belgium and England's perfect defensive qualifying record all point in a similar direction. England look stronger in every area and have the tools to control both territory and possession. The evidence suggests they are the more likely winners in Dallas.
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