Brentford v Brighton
Brentford

Brentford vs Brighton and Hove Albion

, KO: 15:00 , Gtech Community Stadium
Brighton and Hove Albion

Brighton and Hove Albion have been in Premier League freefall and boss Fabian Hurzeler badly needs a positive result when they travel to Brentford.

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The Seagulls slumped to a 3-0 loss at Anfield in the FA Cup last weekend, bringing up a bet for Greg, and that made it six games without a win.

They've lost their last three and now sit just seven points above the drop zone, piling pressure onto their young German manager.

Brighton haven't even managed to score in their last three outings but the mood music is different at Brentford, with the Bees buzzing.

Keith Andrews' side have lost just two of their last 12 in all competitions and marched on in the FA Cup on Monday as they avoided a shock away to Macclesfield.

Brentford are just five points off the top four in the Premier League so they will be confident of piling on the misery for the sorry Seagulls.

How the bookies view it: Bees ready to sting

With Brighton in such dismal form, they're outsiders for this one at 27/10 with BetMGM. Brentford are evens favourites with most firms and the draw pays 14/5 at BetMGM.

Recent head to head: Brighton on top

Brighton came from behind at the Amex Stadium earlier this season to seal a 2-1 victory over Brentford. They've held the upper hand of late, winning five of the last 11 meetings and losing just three times.

Players to watch: Igor to please

Igor Thiago got the night off in Macclesfield but Brentford's top scorer should return to lead the line. The Brazilian is 21/20 at Bet365 to add to his 18-goal tally.

Veteran striker Danny Welbeck also looks set to return to Brighton's attack after sitting on the bench throughout the loss at Anfield. The former England striker is 9/5 at BetMGM to score or assist.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Probable line-ups

Brentford remain without Fabio Carvalho, Antoni Milambo and Josh Dasilva with injuries. Andrews should revert to his strongest line-up after resting players in the FA Cup.

Brighton have more injury issues, with Jan Paul van Hecke joining Stefanos Tzimas, Mats Wieffer, Yasin Ayari, Adam Webster and Solly March in the treatment room.

Brentford: Kelleher, Kayode, Henry, Ajer, Van den Berg, Henderson, Janelt, Lewis-Potter, Ouattara, Schade, Thiago.

Brighton: Verbruggen, De Cuyper, Veltman, Dunk, Boscagli, Hinshelwood, Baleba, Gross, Mitoma, Gomez, Welbeck.

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Bees to beat the Seagulls

Brentford have the stronger recent profile and that underpins the case for a home win. They are W7-D4-L2 at home and across the last eight matches post 12.14 xPTS compared to Brighton’s 9.53. That reflects better overall control in both boxes.

Brentford average 1.89 xG across their last eight while conceding 1.72 xGA. Brighton in the same spell produce 1.12 xG and allow 1.33 xGA. The attacking gap is clear and becomes more relevant at home, where Brentford’s shot volume remains consistent.

Shots inside the box reinforce that edge. Brentford average 7.4 for and 7.8 against across the last eight, while Brighton concede 8.0. In recent away matches Brighton allow 9.3 shots inside the box per game, suggesting sustained defensive pressure.

With Brentford generating higher xPTS, stronger attacking output and facing a side conceding regular box entries on the road, the home win is supported by underlying performance rather than short term variance. .

Anything else catch the eye?

Brentford have scored a lot of goals from long throws so it could pay to back one of their centre backs at long-odds for an assist as they might get first contact on the deliveries.

Kris Ajer is 11/1 with Betfred to set up a goal while the same firm offer a whopping 22/1 for Sepp van den Berg.

We saw 11 corners when these sides last faced off and there could be some value in backing over 10.5 corners here at 11/10 with Coral.

Dango Ouattara has impressed for Brentford of late and is 4/5 at BetMGM for a shot on target. Doubling that up with the same bet for Thiago boosts the odds to evens.

Brentford vs Brighton and Hove Albion Betting Tips & Predictions
Igor Thiago anytime scorer
21/20
Bet365
Over 10.5 corners
11/10
Coral
Sepp van den Berg assist
22/1
Coral
Further Reading
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