Blackburn Rovers host Preston North End in the Championship on Friday night at Ewood Park, with both sides entering the Lancashire derby under pressure at opposite ends of the table.
Michael O'Neill has made a positive start since taking charge, guiding Blackburn to a 3-1 win away at Queens Park Rangers last weekend. That result ended a long wait for an away victory and offered a lift to a side sitting three points above the relegation zone.
Despite the win, the underlying numbers remain modest. Over the last eight matches Blackburn average 0.68 xG and 1.37 xGA, collecting 7.2 xPTS and eight actual points. In the last four they post 0.64 xG and 0.82 xGA with 4.8 xPTS.
At home across the season Blackburn average 1.18 xG and 1.12 xGA, with 25% failed to score and 19% clean sheets. They continue to manage injuries. Augustus Kargbo and Scott Wharton are progressing but are not expected to feature, Todd Cantwell remains sidelined, and Lewis Miller is out for the season.
Preston arrive chasing the playoff places but have won just one of their last six. Over the last eight they average 0.85 xG and 1.48 xGA with 7.8 xPTS and 11 points. Away from home they post 0.94 xG and 1.31 xGA. Robbie Brady remains unavailable, limiting options in wide areas as they seek a response.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Blackburn are priced at 21/20 in the match winner market, which equates to a 48.8% implied chance of a home victory. The draw is available at 12/5, representing a 29.4% probability, while Preston are priced at 3/1, implying a 25.0% chance of an away win.
The goals markets lean toward a moderate scoring expectation. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 7/5, which equates to a 41.7% implied probability. Both teams to score is available at 11/10, representing a 47.6% implied chance of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Close contests
Blackburn and Preston have met regularly in recent Championship seasons, with results often finely balanced. The reverse fixture in November finished 2-1 to Blackburn at Deepdale, while last season produced a 2-1 Blackburn home win and a 0-0 draw. Other recent meetings have included 2-2, 2-1 and 1-1 scorelines, underlining how tight this Lancashire derby has been.
Across the last 19 league encounters Blackburn have won six, drawn five and lost eight. The aggregate return in that spell stands at 29 goals scored and 31 conceded, with 3.16 total goals per game. The split between the sides is narrow at 1.53 and 1.63 goals per team per match, highlighting minimal separation in overall output.
Recent clashes have frequently been decided by one goal or finished level. There have been four draws in the last 12 meetings, alongside several narrow victories in either direction. The historical pattern points toward competitive matches with limited margins rather than sustained control from either side in this fixture.
Players to watch: Devine shots
Alfie Devine has started 25 Championship matches and has recorded 2+ shots in 17 of them, a 68% strike rate. That level of consistency makes the 2+ shots line a data driven play rather than a speculative one.
Across those 25 starts he has taken 61 shots, averaging 2.44 per game. He has cleared the line in a range of match states, including high output displays with five shots against Wrexham and Derby, four against Hull and three in several other fixtures. Even when Preston have not dominated, he still finds ways to register attempts from the edge of the box or through late runs into central areas.
His positional profile supports the volume. Devine has featured as an advanced midfielder and occasionally higher up, regularly occupying pockets between midfield and defence. That role brings repeat shooting opportunities, both from open play and second phases.
With a 68% hit rate and an average comfortably above the two shot mark, the 2+ shots line aligns with his established production across a meaningful sample of starts.
Predicted line-ups
Blackburn Rovers (4-2-3-1): Toth; Alebiosu, Carter, McLoughlin, Cashin; Tronstad, Baradji; Morishita, Jorgensen, Afolayan; Gudjohnsen.
Preston North End (3-5-2): Cornell; Storey, Gibson, Offiah; Valentin, Whiteman, McCann, Devine, Vukcevic; Dobbin, Jebbison.
Anything else catch the eye?
Under 2.5 goals is supported by the recent profiles of both Blackburn and Preston.
Across the last eight matches Blackburn average 0.68 xG while Preston post 0.85 xG. Combined attacking output sits at 1.53 expected goals per game, well below the league’s more open contests. In the last four that drops further, with Blackburn at 0.64 xG and Preston at 0.57 xG. Total xG in the last four by fixture is 4.14 and 4.12 respectively, reinforcing the low event pattern.
Shot data aligns with that view. Blackburn average 10.25 shots and 3.31 on target at home, Preston 9.9 shots and 3.4 on target away. Shots inside the box across the last eight sit at 4.3 per game for Blackburn and 5.8 for Preston. Big chance volume is also limited, with Blackburn creating five and conceding eight in eight matches, Preston creating two and conceding nine.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Blackburn’s home games and 40% of Preston’s away games. Both sides rank in the bottom half for xG ratio over the last eight and neither has shown sustained attacking control.
With modest xG, limited big chances, and consistent sub 2.5 trends in their respective home and away splits, the numbers point toward a tight derby likely decided by one goal rather than three or more.
GambleAware