Blackburn host Ipswich in this Championship fixture at Ewood Park on Tuesday in the replay of the abandoned match that stopped at 80 minutes with Blackburn leading 1-0 and Ipswich down to ten men.
The decision caused anger inside the home club and the return fixture carries extra edge. Heavy rain is forecast again which increases uncertainty around conditions.
Blackburn enter with mid-table process. Their non-penalty xPTS total sits at 24.3, placing them eighth. Their non-penalty xGD stands at 3.9. They have produced 22.6 xGF and recorded six home both teams to score from nine fixtures.
Their season defensive total shows 19 goals conceded and a shots-against return of 182, with 58 of those on target. Their discipline numbers show 176 fouls committed and 21 opposition yellows drawn, signalling limited sustained territorial pressure.
In big-chance creation, they sit on 38, which ranks ninth. Their last four games show a limited set-piece threat with 1.98 xG from set plays and defensive vulnerability at 2.29 xGA from set plays.
Ipswich arrive with stronger long-term process but a season marked by inconsistency. Kieran McKenna continues to manage high squad turnover and the side still lacks cohesion.
Their non-penalty xPTS stands at 32.6, placing them second. Their non-penalty xGA sits at 14.5, one of the lowest totals in the league, and their failure-to-score rate at home stands at two from nine. Away trends show six both teams to score from eight.
Their defensive discipline shows 165 fouls committed, 216 fouls won and 51 opponent yellows, indicating control in advanced areas. Across big chances, they sit second with 53. The earlier abandonment adds tension and the expectation of a physical contest played in difficult weather.
How the bookies view it: Tractor Boys favourites
Market prices show Blackburn at 25% and 3/1, the draw at 26% and 5/2, and Ipswich at 49% with 106/100.
Goals markets lean open with over 2.5 goals at 11/10 and both teams to find the net is 11/13.
Recent head-to-head: Recent history with the visitors
Recent head-to-head meetings between Blackburn and Ipswich show a balanced but often open matchup.
Ipswich won the last two fixtures, 1-0 at Ewood Park in March 2024 and 4-3 at Portman Road in September 2023. Blackburn’s last victory came in 2019 with a 2-0 home result.
Several games have produced high totals, including 4-3, 3-2 and 2-2 scorelines, and the last ten meetings average 2.7 goals. Both teams to score has landed in six of those ten, with only three clean-sheet outcomes.
Earlier matches also showed regular scoring, including 3-2 in 2015, 2-2 in 2018 and 2-1 results in 2014 and 2013. The broader record shows both clubs capable of decisive spells, with recent momentum leaning toward Ipswich.
Players to watch: O'Shea to attack set pieces
Dara O’Shea has started 17 league games and recorded at least one shot in 11 of them. His season total shows 15 shots, including multi-shot returns against Preston and Middlesbrough, and consistent attempts across fixtures against Derby, Sheffield United, Portsmouth, Bristol City, QPR, Swansea, Wrexham and Hull.
His involvement is driven by active positioning at attacking dead-ball situations, with the vast majority of set pieces aimed at him. The 1,530-minute sample confirms stable shot output for a centre-back and sustained threat whenever Ipswich generate corners or wide free kicks.
Predicted line-ups
Blackburn Rovers (3-4-1-2): Pears; Miller, McLoughlin, Pratt; Alebiosu, Forshaw, Gardner-Hickman, Hedges; Morishita; Ohashi, Gudjohnsen.
Ipswich Town (4-2-3-1): Walton; Furlong, O’Shea, Kipre, Davis; Matusiwa, Taylor; McAteer, Akpom, Clarke; Azon.
Anything else catch the eye?
Over 2.5 goals rates well based on the short-term profiles of both teams. Blackburn’s recent matches show increasing defensive vulnerability.
Across their last four, they have allowed 7.75 shots inside the box, showing consistent pressure in dangerous zones. Their touches-in-box-against figure sits at 16.25, again signalling sustained concession in key areas.
Their open-play xGA across the same period stands at 0.63, which shifts to 1.20 on the full non-penalty model, showing rising exposure under pressure. Their big-chance return in the last four sits at four conceded, a trend that aligns with matches that open up quickly at Ewood Park.
Ipswich bring strong short-term attacking indicators. Their last-four window shows 2.21 xG, the highest in the league.
They have produced 9.5 shots inside the box, 23.75 touches in the box and nine big chances. Their open-play xG sits at 1.35, supported by 3.43 set-piece xG, giving multiple routes to goal. The last-four supremacy numbers show 6.75 shots-in-box supremacy and 17.25 touches-in-box supremacy, confirming control in the final third. Their away clean sheet rate of one from eight also allows for trading of goals in transition.
Tactical traits add further support. Ipswich often struggle to break down deep blocks and push extra bodies forward to create overloads. This lifts their chance volume but leaves space for counters. Blackburn’s recent openness in central zones and regular concession of close-range shots increases the likelihood of goals both ways.
Goal trends in the relevant windows support the selection. Ipswich away both teams to score sits at six from eight. Blackburn’s last-four numbers point to defensive decline inside their own area. The combined short-term patterns align clearly with over 2.5 goals.
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