Birmingham City host Leeds United at St Andrew’s on Sunday afternoon in the FA Cup, as the current League One champions take on the reigning Championship winners in a tie that brings together two ambitious clubs at different stages of their development.
Birmingham arrive in strong domestic form. Since the 3-0 defeat at Watford on New Year’s Day, they are unbeaten in eight matches across Championship and FA Cup action, posting five wins and three draws. A 0-0 stalemate with West Bromwich Albion in midweek extended that run, although it ended a long sequence of scoring at home.
In the Championship table they sit 10th, just one point off the playoff places, and their home record is a major reason why. They have lost only one of 16 home league games this season and remain unbeaten in their last 11 at St Andrew’s.
Leeds travel in confident mood after a 2-2 draw at Chelsea on Tuesday. That result means just two Premier League defeats in 12 fixtures since the start of December. In the previous FA Cup round they won 3-1 at Derby County, showing their ability to manage lower league opposition away from home. League form has lifted them to 15th in the Premier League, six points clear of the relegation zone. With momentum building and squad confidence high, this tie sets up as an intense contest between two upwardly mobile sides.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
Birmingham are priced at 9/4 in the match winner market, which equates to a 30.8% implied chance of a home victory. The draw is available at 13/5, representing a 27.8% probability, while Leeds are priced at 5/4, implying a 44.4% chance of an away win.
The goals markets point toward an open contest. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/5, which equates to a 55.6% implied probability. Both teams to score is available at 4/6, representing a 60.0% implied chance of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Closely contested
Across the last 14 competitive meetings between Birmingham City and Leeds United, the fixture has been closely contested with little separating the sides. Each team has recorded six wins, while two matches have finished level, underlining a balanced head to head record across Championship campaigns.
The aggregate score across those 14 games stands at 20–17 in Leeds’ favour. Average goals per game sit at 2.64, suggesting matches that regularly move beyond low scoring territory without becoming consistently high scoring. The average goal difference of -0.21 from Birmingham’s perspective highlights how marginal the overall trend has been.
Recent meetings have produced varied outcomes, including scorelines of 3–0, 1–0 and 5–4. That 5–4 clash in December 2019 showed how open this fixture can become when momentum shifts. Overall, history points toward competitive games shaped by fine margins rather than sustained dominance.
Players to watch: Iwata to resort to fouls
Tomoki Iwata averages 1.3 fouls per match across 30 Championship appearances, but that baseline masks how often he clears the two foul line. He has committed two or more fouls in 13 of those 30 starts, including four against Leicester and three in matches versus West Brom, Coventry, Swansea and Oxford.
In recent weeks his defensive workload has increased. He made three fouls away at Swansea, three at Oxford and four at home to Leicester, all games where Birmingham faced sustained pressure. Across 2,664 minutes he has been heavily involved in duels, drawing 26 fouls himself and collecting seven yellow cards.
With Leeds carrying pace in wide and central areas, Iwata’s role in breaking transitions points toward another high contact outing and at least two fouls committed.
Predicted line-ups
Birmingham City (4-2-3-1): Allsop; Iwata, Klarer, Neumann, Wagner; Doyle, Solis; Vicente, Stansfield, Gray; Priske.
Leeds United (3-4-3): Darlow; Bornauw, Bijol, Ampadu; Gnonto, Tanaka, Gruev, Byram; Piroe, Nmecha, Okafor.
Anything else catch the eye?
Over 2.5 goals stands out in this FA Cup meeting because both teams are producing open games, strong attacking output and consistent scoring patterns in recent weeks.
Birmingham’s eight-game unbeaten run has included goals at both ends. They beat Cambridge United 3-2 in the previous round and have been involved in high energy contests throughout their recent stretch. Across their last 10 league games, Championship sides in similar form have shown elevated over 2.5 trends, and Birmingham’s push toward the playoff places has been built on proactive football rather than risk avoidance. At home they have lost only once in 16, which encourages an aggressive approach rather than containment.
Leeds’ recent matches further support the angle. Their 2-2 draw at Chelsea featured four goals and highlighted both attacking quality and defensive vulnerability. Since early January they have lost just once in six matches in all competitions, and that sequence includes the 3-1 FA Cup win at Derby. In their last 10 Premier League fixtures, over 2.5 goals has landed in 50%, while both teams to score has appeared in 60%. Leeds have scored 15 and conceded 11 in that spell, an average of 2.6 total goals per game.
With Birmingham strong at home and Leeds carrying Premier League attacking quality, the game state is likely to open up. Cup ties between upwardly mobile sides often move away from caution, making over 2.5 goals a logical position.
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