Another historic Champions League night awaits us, featuring the two most frequent rivals in the tournament’s history: Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. The first leg offered surprises and quite a few questionable decisions that undoubtedly influenced the result. What can we expect in the rematch?
Bayern Munich didn’t hold back in their match over the weekend, crushing St. Pauli 5-0 on the road. With this result, they broke the long-standing record for most goals in a single Bundesliga season—and they still have a few rounds left to play.
History is full of tough battles against Real Madrid at the Allianz Arena, but the fact that the Bavarians have suffered just one loss in their last 28 home Champions League matches certainly points to a spot in the semifinals.
Real Madrid also chose to field their strongest lineup in their La Liga match on Friday, yet still failed to win. The draw with Girona marked their third consecutive match without a win.
Defensive issues are evident, as Los Blancos have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 matches across all competitions. This will certainly be a key factor in the match at the Allianz Arena, where Bayern Munich have 18 wins in 20 matches this season.
How the bookies view it: Huge advantage for the German giants
We’re not used to seeing Real Madrid as such heavy underdogs, and it’s unlikely this would happen against any other team, but against Bayern Munich, it’s a reality. Bookmakers are giving the Bavarians a massive advantage heading into this match.
Currently, you can back Bayern at around 3/5, while Real Madrid are available at a whopping 7/2. A draw is also a possibility and is priced at 4/1.
Recent head-to-head: Los Blancos have the upper hand
This will be the 30th match between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid in European club competitions, which is a record between any two teams. Historically, Los Blancos have the edge, and two years ago they managed to knock the Bavarians out of the semifinals.
Last week’s victory was Bayern’s only win in their last 10 H2Hs in the Champions League. Quite a few of their recent meetings have ended in draws, but the Bavarians hadn’t managed to win in years.
Players to watch
Who will shine and lead their team to the semifinals—Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappe? Both have been phenomenal in the Champions League this season, with the Englishman scoring 11 goals in 10 matches and Mbappe scoring 14 in 10.
You can’t go wrong with either of them, but home-field advantage and current form definitely point to Harry Kane. Additionally, we expect Michael Olise to be in the thick of the action and to provide one of his signature assists. The Frenchman has 17 goals and 26 assists in 41 matches this season.
Probable line-ups
Bayern Munich: Neuer, Laimer, Tah, Upamecano, Stanisic, Pavlovic, Kimmich, Diaz, Guerreiro, Olise, Kane
Real Madrid: Lunin, Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, Carreras, Guler, Camavinga, Bellingham, Valverde, Vinicius Jr., Mbappe
Anything else catch the eye?
The last match was the eighth consecutive one between the two teams in which both scored at least one goal. Expectations are for more of the same, despite Los Blancos’ poor form. Historically, Real Madrid have scored at least one goal in every away match against Bayern Munich, except for the first one in 1976.
We’ll also bet on corners again, because they’re a staple of every match between these two teams. In the first leg, we saw a total of 19, eight for Real and 11 for Bayern.
Finally, given the events of the first match and the bets in this one, we can also expect cards. In the first match, we saw five, and there could have been many more.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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