We enjoyed a very intense clash between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona just three days ago on Saturday. It’s time for more of the same, but this time with a huge prize at stake—a spot in the Champions League semi-finals.
Atletico Madrid hosted Barcelona in a La Liga Matchday 30 fixture, marking the fourth meeting between the teams this season. On Saturday, we got absolutely all our predictions right, although Los Colchoneros’ red card complicated things somewhat.
This time, Barcelona will be hosting, and the factors will be a little different, though some of our predictions will be similar.
On Saturday, Atletico started the match decently, even scoring the opening goal in the 39th minute. But Gonzalez’s red card changed everything, and Barcelona dominated completely in the second half.
To understand exactly how dominant they were, Atletico didn’t have a single shot in the second half and had just 17% possession over the 45 minutes.
How the bookies view it: Huge advantage for the hosts again
Barcelona were the favourites both on Saturday and in every other match between the teams this season, but this time their advantage is significantly greater.
Currently, you can back the home team at 11/20, while Atletico Madrid are available at 17/4. A draw, though unlikely, is also an option at 15/4.
Recent head-to-head: Blaugrana won three out of four this season
This will be the fifth match between the two teams in the last five months. They have faced each other twice in La Liga and twice in the Copa del Rey.
So far, Barcelona have three wins over Atletico, two of which were 3-1 and 3-0 victories at home.
Los Colchoneros, meanwhile, secured a shocking 4-0 home win in the first leg of the cup tie, and that result was enough to send them through to the tournament final.
However, the overall picture shows seven wins in the last 10 H2Hs for the Blaugrana. More impressively, Barcelona have not lost a H2H at the Camp Nou since 2006.
Players to watch: Yamal can break a massive record
While we didn’t bet on Robert Lewandowski in Saturday’s clash, we predicted that he’ll score, and he did so in the 87th minute, completing the comeback for Barcelona.
With Raphinha still out of action, we believe that Lewa is once again a top pick. Moreover, he played only 12 minutes on Saturday, and should have a place among the starters in the UCL.
Alternatively, Lamine Yamal has a record to break. He can become the youngest player with 10 goal contributions in a single UCL campaign if he scores or assists on Tuesday.
Probable line-ups
Barcelona: Garcia, Cancelo, Cubarsi, Martin, Kounde, Pedri, Garcia, Rashford, Lopez, Yamal, Lewandowski
Atletico Madrid: Musso, Ruggeri, Normand, Hancko, Molina, Simeone, Llorente, Koke, Lookman, Alvarez, Griezmann
Anything else catch the eye?
The atmosphere will be even more heated on Tuesday following the intense match three days ago, and we have reason to expect plenty of cards. On Saturday, we saw 10 yellow cards and one red card in 90 minutes.
Although we don’t expect the match to be quite that rough, Betano is offering 13/20 odds that both teams will receive 2+ cards.
Corners are also a great option, just like in the previous match. It’s typical for Barcelona to get a lot of corners against Atletico; in their four matches so far, they’ve had eight, nine, 15 and five corners. The options are over 9.5 corners in the match at 7/10 or over 5.5 for Barcelona at 1/2.
And of course, goals are always an option in this matchup, as each of the four clashes this season produced at least three goals.
When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
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