Athletic Bilbao host Real Madrid in La Liga’s only midweek fixture at a time when both teams have a desperate need for points after weeks of inconsistent performances.
Athletic Bilbao picked up a rare win when they travelled to Levante on Saturday and remain four points behind the Top 6. It was an expected result, but it should give them confidence ahead of El Viejo Clasico – one of the most significant derbies in Spanish football.
The Lions have been troubled by inconsistencies since early September and the last time they got back-to-back wins was in August. Since then, Bilbao lost six of their 11 La Liga fixtures and won only three times. Goals have been particularly hard to come by, and Athletic Bilbao have the fourth-weakest attack in the league with just 14 goals in 14 rounds.
Real Madrid were knocked off the top of the table for the first time this season after their third draw in a row on Sunday. Until three rounds ago, Los Blancos had a confident 5-point lead, but are now a point behind Barcelona.
While Kylian Mbappe is having another exceptional season, many of his teammates are displaying poor form, and combined with the injuries in the defence line, Xabi Alonso has had problems winning games.
Real Madrid conceded three draws against teams from the bottom half of the table, including relegation-threatened Girona on Saturday.
How the bookies view it: Los Blancos to return to winning ways
Despite the problems, bookmakers believe Real Madrid have a significantly better chance of winning Wednesday’s clash. You can currently back Athletic Bilbao at 7/2, while Real Madrid are available at 3/4. Draws in El Viejo Clasico have been extremely rare, but you can back that option at 29/10.
Recent head-to-head: Real Madrid won 3 of the last 4
El Viejo Clasico is now the second most-played fixture in Spanish football, only behind El Clasico with 246 total official meetings before this one.
As you can probably guess, Real Madrid hold a convincing all-time lead, but Athletic Bilbao have been quite competitive too. Los Blancos have won 124 times, the Lions have 77 wins, and 45 meetings ended level.
In recent times, Madrid have won more times, with seven wins to two in the last 10 H2Hs. Los Blancos also won three of the last four.
Players to watch: 14 in 14 for Mbappe
It will hardly surprise you that we intend to back Mr. Consistent, otherwise known as Kylian Mbappe. The Frenchman is one of few Real Madrid players who have consistently played up to the team’s standards this season, and has 14 goals in 14 La Liga appearances.
He scored five goals last week alone – the equaliser against Girona on Saturday and four away at Olympiacos in the Champions League on Wednesday.
Mbappe has actually never scored against Bilbao in his four personal H2Hs, so what better time than a time when Real Madrid need to win at all costs.
Probable line-ups
Athletic Bilbao: Simon, Berchiche, Vivian, Laporte, Gorosabel, Jauregizar, Galarreta, Williams, Sanchez, Berenguer, Gomez
Real Madrid: Courtois, Carreras, Rudiger, Militao, Alexander-Arnold, Camavinga, Valverde, Tchouameni, Bellingham, Junior, Mbappe
Anything else catch the eye?
Most recent editions of El Viejo Clasico were very one-sided and involved action from one side, but this feels like a great opportunity for a BTTS bet. Real Madrid’s defence is clearly not in optimal shape, having conceded seven goals across their last five away games in all competitions.
And while Bilbao are one of the lowest-scoring sides in La Liga this season, they scored seven goals across their last five home games. We even see a potential 1-1 at FT, although we wouldn’t bet heavily on a draw.
Generally, we’d prefer to bet on alternative markets, like corners, for example. Four of the last five H2Hs featured 10+ corners and Over 8.5 at 11/20 is a great option. Additionally, we like Betano’s odds for Unai Simon to make 4+ saves at 21/20.
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