Aston Villa v Sunderland
Aston Villa

Aston Villa vs Sunderland

, KO: 20:00 , Villa Park
Sunderland

Aston Villa are closing in on Europa League glory but can't afford to take their eye off the ball in the Premier League run-in, starting with a visit from shock troops Sunderland.

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Unai Emery's side booked a place in the semi-finals of the Europa League on Thursday night as they sealed the deal against Bologna, whom they battered 4-0 in the second leg for a 7-1 aggregate victory.

If they go all the way in that tournament then it will stamp their ticket for entry to the more lucrative Champions League next season.

But Villa can also secure a seat at Europe's top table by finishing in the Premier League top five so this clash with the Black Cats is also huge for them.

They went into the latest round of fixtures with a seven-point lead over sixth-placed Chelsea and racking up another three points would take Aston Villa a big step closer to their goal.

It won't be easy against Sunderland though, with Regis Le Bris' men in good form after claiming back-to-back wins over Newcastle and Tottenham Hotspur.

That has left the Black Cats sitting just two points behind Chelsea so they could also end up landing a place in Europe next season if they keep their recent resurgence going.

How the bookies view it: No Euro hangover for Villa

Sunday domestic games after Thursday night European engagements are often tricky but Aston Villa are still odds-on favourites at a best 8/13 with Ladbrokes. Sunderland look overpriced at 25/4 with BetMGM while the draw pays 3/1 with Coral.

Recent head to head: Unlucky 13 for Sunderland

Sunderland came from 1-0 down with 10 men to salvage a point when these sides faced off at the Stadium of Light earlier this season. But there hasn't been much for the fans to cheer against Villa of late, with just one win in the last 13 meetings.

Players to watch: Tielemans back in business

Having Youri Tielemans back from injury will be huge for Aston Villa in the run-in and he should bring a creative spark to their midfield. The Belgian is a decent 7/4 with Bet365 to score or assist.

Battering ram Brian Brobbey should spearhead the Sunderland attack once more and he's 12/5 with the same firm to grab a goal or set one up.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Probable line-ups

Aston Villa could be without Boubacar Kamara again, but Emiliano Martinez, Jadon Sancho and Tyrone Mings were in the squad in midweek. I'd imagine Emery will make a few changes from Thursday's line-up to add a bit of freshness.

Sunderland boss Le Bris will probably stick with a winning side and still has Jocelin Ta Bi, Romaine Mundle, Bertrand Traore, Nilson Angulo, Dan Ballard and Simon Moore in the treatment room.

Aston Villa: Martinez, Cash, Lindelof, Konsa, Digne, Tielemans, Onana, McGinn, Barkley, Rogers, Watkins.

Sunderland: Roefs, O'Nien, Alderete, Mandava, Mukiele, Rigg, Diarra, Sadiki, Le Fee, Xhaka, Brobbey.

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Villa to win low scoring game

Aston Villa enter this game with a stronger overall profile, particularly at home where they average 1.26 NPxG and maintain solid defensive numbers with 1.22 NPxGA.

Sunderland’s away data shows clear weakness, producing just 1.00 NPxG while conceding 1.57, alongside high shot concessions of 15.88 per game. Villa generate consistent attacking volume with 13.38 shots and 4.81 on target, which should be enough to break down Sunderland.

However, Villa’s games are not typically high scoring, with 50% over 2.5 and controlled chance creation. Sunderland’s limited attacking output also reduces the likelihood of a high total.

This points towards a home win driven by superior process and chance volume, but within a game that remains under the higher goal thresholds.

Anything else catch the eye?

Chances were at a premium in Sunderland's win over Spurs and I'd be surprised if this one was a thriller given Aston Villa are coming off the back of a European game.

Under 2.5 goals pays a decent 19/20 at William Hill while betting against BTTS is a bit shorter at 10/11 with Ladbrokes.

Another feature of Sunderland's clash with Tottenham was Brobbey's physical battle with Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero. The giant striker puts himself about and looks good at 6/5 with Bet365 for over 1.5 fouls.

Aston Villa vs Sunderland Betting Tips & Predictions
Brian Brobbey over 1.5 fouls
6/5
Bet365
Youri Tielemans goal or assist
7/4
Bet365
Under 2.5 goals
19/20
William Hill
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