Bournemouth v Brentford
AFC Bournemouth

AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford

, KO: 19:30 , Vitality Stadium
Brentford

Brentford are buzzing as they head into the business end of the season but their European ambitions will face a tough examination on the road against AFC Bournemouth.

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Keith Andrews's side sit seventh in the Premier League with just 10 games to go and have a chance of qualifying for Europe for the first time.

Lady luck smiled on Brentford at the weekend as VAR ruled out two Burnley goals in a seven-goal thriller.

I backed Burnley in the double chance that day so I was far from amused when Ashley Barnes's last-gasp leveller was chalked off for a debatable handball.

Andrews would have heaved a sigh of relief at full-time as it looked like his side had thrown victory away after leading 3-0 in the first half.

They now head south to take on a Bournemouth side who sit just three places and four points behind them in the table.

The Cherries could only draw 1-1 at home to Sunderland at the weekend but they're now unbeaten in eight Premier League games and will fancy their chances in this one.

How the bookies view it: Bournemouth by a nose

This is a tricky one to call with both sides in good form but Bournemouth are slight favourites at 7/5 with Paddy Power. Brentford are 15/8 with most firms while the draw pays 13/5 at BetMGM.

Recent head to head: Game's a bogey for Cherries

Brentford have dominated this fixture of late, winning the last five meetings and going unbeaten across the last nine. They won 2-0 in August away to Bournemouth in the EFL Cup.

Players to watch: Rayan of sunshine

Brazilian kid Rayan looks like another shrewd signing for Bournemouth, with the forward making a big impact in recent weeks. He's 11/10 with Bet365 for a goal or an assist here.

Igor Thiago scored at the weekend for Brentford and that took his tally for the season to 19. The Brazilian is 5/4 with Unibet to smash the 20-goal barrier in this game.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Probable line-ups

Evanilson is a doubt for Bournemouth after going off late on in the draw with Sunderland. Ben Gannon-Doak, Matai Akinmboni, Justin Kluivert, Julio Soler and Lewis Cook remain sidelined.

Aaron Hickey, Josh Dasilva, Antoni Milambo and Fabio Carvalho look set to miss out again for Brentford.

AFC Bournemouth: Petrovic, Truffert, Senesi, Jimenez, Hill, Christie, Scott, Adams, Tavernier, Rayan, Kroupi.

Brentford: Kelleher, Henry, Van den Berg, Ajer, Kayode, Schade, Jensen, Henderson, Ouattara, Damsgaard, Thiago.

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Both teams to score

Both teams to score stands out as the strongest angle in Bournemouth vs Brentford based on the data profile of both sides.

Bournemouth have scored in 11 of 14 home games, with both teams to score landing in nine of those 14. They average 1.58 NPxG and concede 1.56 NPxGA, which reflects open game states rather than control. Their attacking output sits at 13.00 shots and 4.62 SOT per match, so they consistently create chances at home.

Brentford have scored in 10 of 14 away fixtures and have won five of their last seven on the road. Their away matches average 3.21 total goals, showing a clear trend toward open contests. Defensively they have conceded 2+ goals in 11 of 14 away games, which strengthens the case for Bournemouth finding the net.

With Brentford posting 1.53 NPxG and Bournemouth allowing regular chances, both attacks have a platform. The combined scoring consistency supports both teams to score as the strongest bet.

Anything else catch the eye?

These teams are well matched so I'm expecting a close game and the half-time draw appeals at 7/5 with Unibet.

Given Brentford's recent record in this fixture, there could be some value in backing them to win either half at 10/11 with 888Sport.

We saw 17 corners when these teams last faced off and 15 of them went to Bournemouth, even though they lost that game 4-1.

That suggests over 10 flag kicks stand a chance at 10/11 with Bet365, while Bournemouth -1 in the corner handicap pays evens with the same firm.

AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford Betting Tips & Predictions
Half-time draw
7/5
UniBet
Rayan goal or assist
11/10
Bet365
Bournemouth -1 corner handicap
Evens
Bet365
Further Reading
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