THERE are two David v Goliath ties tonight as football giants Uruguay and Mexico attempt to take a giant leap towards the World Cup finals.
Both have suffered poor disappointing qualifying campaigns but have a second chance with play-offs against minnows Jordan and New Zealand respectively.
The Uruguay game is the one that interests most with the South Americans boasting a fearsome strikeforce of Luis Suarez, Edinson Cavani and Diego Forlan.
It's the biggest match in Jordan's history but it's even more important Uruguay win and qualify for finals on their own continent.
Jordan will put up a fight but there is no doubt their South American rivals are a class act and no bigger than 1-33 at McBookie.com to qualify for a reason. To win the two-legged affair the Arabs are 16-1 at bet365.
Suarez has netted eight goals in six games for Liverpool after returning from his ban for biting and is 10-11 at bet365 to net tonight and 31-10 with 888sport to break the deadlock. To score two or more Suarez is 5-1 at 888sport.
He was top scorer in South American qualification with 11 but of course has plenty of competition from the likes of Cavani and Forlan.
Last time out Uruguay beat Argentina 3-2 but had to settle for this tie while Jordan beat Uzebekistan 9-8 on penalties after their play-off was deadlocked.
With a home leg to follow Uruguay don't need to go hell for leather tonight but they'd love to take a lead home and are 1-4 at Coral to do so.
Jordan are 16-1 at McBookie.com to win with the draw paying 11-2 at William Hill – but either would be a huge surprise.
In their last seven matches Jordan haven't scored more than one goal so shouldn't have the firepower to worry the South Americans.
I'm on Uruguay but I'm not sure if they'll win by that many. This is their fourth play-off in successive campaigns and away from home they've won two 1-0 and lost one 1-0.
Jordan are unbeaten in 16 at home but against weaker opponents but are without skipper Amer Deeb and top scorer Hasan Abdel-Fattah.
So while I expect Uruguay to win the stats suggest a low-scoring game – 1-0 or 2-0 to the away side. Under 2.5 goals pays 21-20 at bet365 and William Hill.
Elsewhere Mexico entertain New Zealand in the first leg of their play-off and are 1-12 at Paddy Power to make it to Rio.
There is no doubt New Zealand are huge underdogs but will have they have a glimmer of hope against a side who lost recent qualifiers to Costa Rica and Honduras.
Mexico finished fourth in their qualifying group and pipped Panama only because of two late goals by the USA in the final qualifying round and have just appointed their fourth coach in six WEEKS.
Miguel Herrera is the man in charge now and his side are just 2-9 at Paddy Power and Coral to win tonight. It's too short for and a better bet could be under 2.5 goals at 13-10 with Coral.
Herrera has taken a risk by leaving foreign-based stars such as Javier Hernandez out for the play-offs and chosen 10 players from his Club America side because they'll know the style and tactics he wants to use.
I'm pretty sure Herrera would settle for any kind of narrow win to take to New Zealand who are no mugs and remember were unbeaten in the 2010 World Cup finals despite exiting at the group stage.
The draw pays 13-2 at bet365 and I quite like New Zealand plus two at 5-4 with bet365.
Recommended Bets
Suarez to score first (3pm)
(3-1, Titanbet)
Suarez to score
(10-11, bet365)
Jordan v Uruguay under 2.5 goals
(21-20, bet365, William Hill)
New Zealand +2 (8.30pm)
(5-4, bet365)
Mexico v New Zealand under 2.5 goals
(13-10, Coral)
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GambleAware
Just a warning for anyone using 888sport for first goalscorers. They void bets if the first goal is an own goal, rather than just not counting it. Cost me a few quid in an Inter Milan game a few weeks back.
mr f mexico are at home first…..
Madi, yeah Mexico are at home first. I may have suggested they weren’t so I’ll fix. Still think they’ll stutter to a narrow win.
Think if Suarez doesn’t score most punters will be reaching for the scotch tonight fixer. thanks for the treble last night, just gutted I couldn’t get the SS on.
Just a comment, but I think the jordan vs uruguay will easily be over 2.5 goals. And i decided to be safer with new zealand and gave them a +3 handicap. For the other two, they look completely agree with ya!
Pete, the great thing is with no fixture history between Jordan and Uruguay no one really knows. It could go either way and I’ve got to make a call but no sure I’ll be right.
Hi Mr F,
Quick question please…if you do not mind me asking.
Do you use a stake plan as such ?
Regards
Mr Fish, I use staking plans for the single and treble. I plan to do a similar staking plan to The Dane when site changes take place soon.
Hi Mr F, this is the first time I have left a message and can I start by saying great tips last night ! (Thank you)
Mr F, I am also sure that Mexico are at HOME tonight…
Mr Fish, they’re definitely at home, my mistake in the editing which has been fixed. When I was talking about the travelling I was meaning one reason the foreign-based players weren’t picked was to save them travelling, not that they had to travel to New Zealand.
Avast ye seekers of booty! Both games I think will be pretty similar, with one team looking to try and keep the game as tight as possible for as long as possible. As such I don’t see New Zealand or Jordan scoring which makes correct score betting seem a much healthier prospect here. I’ve covered 2-0 and 3-0 in both matches, plus an extra half bet on 1-0 Uruguay.
Also backed Suarez on just about every avenue available, he’ll be walking the plank if he doesn’t lead me to thee treasure.
Afternoon Folks,
Gar Steve, Gar!
Definitely all over Suarez today, here’s hoping because its such a tricky one to predict. I watched both legs of the Jordan-Uzbekistan playoff, and in truth it was really, really poor!
Awful pitch too, so it could be 0-0, 0-1 and then again Uruguay could rip them apart! Mr F, thanks for the tipping once more, lets all make us some money!
Andrew
Mr F do you really think uruguay vs jordan will be under 2.5?? I’m thinking over?
Not liking Suarez’s positioning out wide !!!!!!
maxi pereira first goal!:(
Suarez looks no where near scoring !!!!!!!!!
suzie, that’s great news! Could do with him scoring but tie is over already.
2-0 half time, will they take suarez off and rest him?
Maybe good news to you Mr F for your unders bet,but i need him to score for £166 lol…
I’m hoping for a Suarez goal, big bet anytime. I fear he is going through the motions a bit though, game is very scrappy and Suarez happy to hang in wide areas. Get the finger out Luis!!!!!!
4-0 and not one goal from suarez or cavani, you gotta be shitting me!
Good thing is I got the over 2.5 on a couple of other bets
That’s that Suarez is off
225 winnings last night lumped onto uruaguay -2 @2/1 happy days
Uruguay be twins as does Uruguay to score in both halves, suarez gl would be good to keep the ew 1st gl double but remember he got permission by Uruguay to play for Liverpool on Saturday so maybe a wee bit jet lagged
Cant believe suarez didn’t score when they’d scored 4 goals then the kick in the teeth in cavani! Ah well it happens i guess
mr f what you think about Atletico-PR chances in brazil tonite they lie 2nd and are 2/1 for the win
koplegends, I haven’t looked at it.
It seemed to be a very mixed opinion on the Uruguay match and I couldn’t decide what to go for, in the end plumped for Uruguay to win and >2.5 goals at 5/6 in a double with New Zealand +3. 1 down, 1 to go.
Evo21up, at the end of the day we all knew Uruguay would win – it was just a question of how many. No form to go on but Jordan worse than most people expected.
Garrr, this be thee worst disaster since the great white catching expedition of Loch Lomond 2002. I’ve been properly jolly rogered!
I said yday that Uruguay would put 4 or 5 past Jordan and hoping Mexico do the same but would be happy with 1-0 ht 2-0 ft
quite fancy a few goals in the mexico game tonight
over 3.5 6/4… looks good
Does anyone know if Mexico v New Zealand is on TV? If so what channel?
Its on premier sports Joseph 8 30 ko
Thanks Craig. Have to pay for that so have to keep up to date on phone. I’ve done -4 handicap for Mexico think hard ask but feel could score a few!
Aye feck that I’ve only ever had it when celtic european games were on about 5 yr ago but will either keep an eye on it in bet365 or try get link on phone
Joseph its in live stream on bet365
Just put fiver on NZ double chance 11/2 as cover since Fleetwood are winning
Craig does that Chris killin still play for them, he was about as good as peter van vossen.
Mr Fixit r u going to cover the U21’s tomorrow if not what u think of the scots U21’s
Marco, yeah I’ll do something. Tough one for Scots who lost in Georgia.
Tony no Chris Killen but they have Leicester Chris Woods starting, can mind that donkey tho haha toss up between him and van vossen but still remeber that miss v celtic wi an open goal
Next ‘friendly’ I go to at Tynecastle I’m getting someone to lift me over the turnstile, fundraiser or not! Didn’t know if I would freeze to death or die of boredom first…..
Damn it Mexico. Thought they would win 2-0
For queen an country,
Van an him, two of the biggest donkeys ever. Hope u are winning, u21 world cup 6 games over2.5 troops