As the National League season enters its final stretch, the stakes could not be higher — and this weekend throws up another round of crucial fixtures with value to be found in the markets.
Barnet continue their relentless pursuit of the title and a return to the Football League as they host an out-of-form Gateshead side rapidly losing momentum in the play-off race. With Barnet in red-hot form and Gateshead struggling at both ends of the pitch, all signs point to another strong home performance.
Over at Spotland, Rochdale look to strengthen their top-seven ambitions against an Aldershot team that has struggled for consistency. The visitors are still clinging to play-off hopes, but their defensive fragility could be exposed here.
Meanwhile, down at the bottom end of the table, Woking welcome Braintree in a huge clash with survival implications. Both sides are scrapping for points, and this one could be tighter than the odds suggest.
We’ve broken down each fixture with form, stats, and betting insight.
Barnet vs Gateshead
If it’s not broken, don’t fix it — and right now, Barnet are absolutely flying. They have lost just once in their last 20 matches and come into this fixture having won 12 of their last 13, conceding only twice in that stretch. One of those goals came in a 3-1 win over second-placed York.
At home, Barnet have been near-perfect: W16-D3-L0, conceding just 12 goals — an average of 0.63 per game. Take out the 3-3 Boxing Day draw with Sutton, and they have allowed just 0.5 goals per home match. They welcome a Gateshead side in terrible form — winless in seven and having lost their last five. Away from home, Gateshead are W7-D6-L6, conceding an average of 1.42 goals per game, with five clean sheets and four blanks in front of goal.
Against sides currently eighth or higher on the road, Gateshead have yet to win (W0-D3-L2) — and still have Barnet and Forest Green to play. Barnet have proven they can grind out wins, and while they have had a couple of big victories (5-0 vs Yeovil, 7-0 vs Tamworth), 15 of their 17 home wins have averaged just 3.07 goals, with only two going over 4.5 goals.
Given Gateshead's struggles and Barnet’s consistency — W9-D1-L0 in their last 10, conceding just twice — the smart play looks to be Barnet to win and under 4.5 goals.
- Best Bet: Barnet to win and under 4.5 goals at 1.85 with Coral
Rochdale vs Aldershot
Aldershot have become one of the most entertaining teams in the league. Their last 20 games have averaged 3.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 18 of those. They have found the net in 18 of those 20 matches and conceded in 18 as well. On the road, they have scored in 10 of their last 11, with both teams finding the net in nine of those 11.
Their away record stands at W5-D6-L8, with 53% of those games going over 2.5 goals. They have managed three clean sheets on their travels and failed to score in just three of 19 away games — two of those clean sheets came against the bottom two.
They now travel to a Rochdale side clinging to a playoff place, sitting just one point above eighth-placed Altrincham, though they do have two games in hand. At home, Rochdale are W10-D3-L6, scoring 30 and conceding 28. They have kept just four clean sheets at home and failed to score six times — though four of those blanks came against the current top four (Barnet, York, Forest Green, and Oldham).
Against teams fifth and below, Rochdale have scored in 13 of 15 home games. They are winless in their last three, with both teams scoring in each, and have just two clean sheets from their last eight at home.
Aldershot are in free-scoring form — only Barnet have scored more in the last 10 games — while Rochdale remain leaky, with only six sides conceding more over that same period. Backing both teams to score looks like strong value in this one.
Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.80 with Ladbrokes
Woking vs Braintree
Braintree Town head to Woking knowing that one more win could all but secure their National League survival — a remarkable turnaround considering their start to the season. After 10 games, they had just seven points, one win, and only five goals scored — the lowest in the division at the time. However, a managerial change has completely shifted their approach. They are now playing more openly, scoring goals, and picking up crucial results.
In their last 10 matches, only Aldershot, Boston, and Barnet have collected more points than Braintree. They have scored 16 goals and won five of those games. While a slim chance of relegation still exists, they currently sit eight points clear of the drop, with Dagenham & Redbridge, Wealdstone, and Woking between them and the bottom four.
Woking are six points behind Braintree but do have a game in hand. Their home record is W7-D6-L5, and their matches have been low scoring — averaging just 2.0 goals per game, with only 27% going over 2.5. They have kept six clean sheets at home but failed to score in five.
Woking’s form has collapsed at a key stage — just two wins in their last 13 matches, with an average of 0.92 goals scored and only two clean sheets in that run. They have failed to win any of their last six.
In contrast, Braintree have lost just twice in their last nine and recently beat second-placed York. Their away form has transformed: after collecting just five points from their first 11 away games, they have now taken 15 from the last eight (W4-D3-L1), scoring 17 goals — an average of 2.13 per game. Only Barnet have picked up more away points in that period.
Braintree should avoid defeat here, but with momentum on their side, backing them on the 0.0 Asian Handicap looks like a smart, lower-risk play at a decent price.
- Best Bet: Braintree 0.0AH at 2.08 with Bet365
Further Reading
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