We're in the limbo-land between Christmas and New Year and the only way I can judge what day it is, is by keeping track of the NFL. In this post, I'll offer you my NFL Week 17 picks, including best spread, total, touchdown and player props.
We're already deep into Week 17 of the season with a triple-header on Christmas Day which saw the Chiefs and Ravens comfortably taking care of business, the Chiefs wrapping up the 1 seed and home-field throughout the post-season. The Seahawks kept their playoff hopes alive with a snoozer on Boxing Day night, winning 6-3 in the first game this season without a field goal.
We were treated to three games yesterday as well as the Chargers beat a poor Patriots team, the Bengals kept their slim playoff hopes alive with an OT win over the Broncos, and the Rams won another low-scoring affair in the NFC West to put themselves in the driving seat in that division heading into the final week of the season.
So we've only got 10 games left of the week, and only two in the late slot tonight as playoff spots get settled and the post-season takes shape.
NFL betting tips – week 17 picks
Best spread – Packers (+1) vs Vikings @ 22/25
The best game of the evening takes place in Minnesota as the 13-2 Vikings host their divisional rivals, the 11-4 Packers, with both teams sitting pretty in the play-offs already. So, there's nothing but bragging right at stake, but that's always a strong motivator in these divisional games.
The Vikings have been outstanding this season and head coach Kevin O'Connell looks like he'll be taking home the Coach of the Year award for getting his team into the playoffs with Sam Darnold who looked like his career was over after leaving the Jets a couple of years ago. It's been a remarkable season with them looking strong on both sides of the ball, and they sit 7-1 at home this year. They have earned their spot in the playoffs and will be hoping the Lions slip up so they are able to snatch the division, but I think the team on the other side is the better one in this game.
The Packers have rounded into form in the second half of the season on the back of a strong run game from Josh Jacobs which allows them to control the pace of games. They shut out the Saints on Monday night and while that definitely won't happen here, their ball-hawking defense has caused teams issues all year and I think they'll do the job in this one. Jordan Love has cut out the interceptions which hurt him in the first half of the season and that's been the key to their charge.
I think the Packers tie the series and get the win.
Best total – Titans vs Jaguars: Under 39.5 @ 10/11
Several times this year I've been taken in by the low totals in the Titans games and several times I've looked foolish, but I'm still going with under in this game.
It's been a tough year for both teams as they have only had the draft to look forward to for the last two months of the season. They both sit at 3-12 on the season and realistically they should be looking to lose this game to “earn” themselves a better spot in the draft, but players don't tank, so I think they'll both be trying to win.
That doesn't mean much though as the Jaguars are starting Mac Jones who has been ineffectual since coming in for Trevor Lawrence and while Mason Rudolph does tend to be safer than Will Levis for the Titans, he's also less explosive which leads to lower scoring.
The Titans run game has at least looked good this season with Tony Pollard but he's been ruled out of the game as well so I think both teams will struggle to move the ball and I'm looking at the under in this one.
Best touchdown scorer – Amon-Ra St. Brown @ 10/11
With so many injuries around the league it's slim pickings in the Touchdown department unless you're plumping for heavy odds-on shots which I won't go for in this post. So, we're heading to Monday Night Football and the matchup between the Lions and 49ers.
The Lions are one of the highest scoring teams in the league and need to keep winning to ensure they take the NFC North with the Packers and Vikings keeping the pressure on them in division, so it's safe to say they won't be taking it easy in San Francisco as they take on a 49ers team who are done for the year.
The loss of David Montgomery means that Jamhyr Gibbs gets more on the ground but he faces a solid defense here, so I think they'll air it out a little more and St. Brown is usually the beneficiary of that move. He's one of the best in the league and having scored in his last two games, I think he'll add to his 11 this season.
Best player prop – Chig Okonkwo longest reception over 15.5 yards @ 10/11
Ok, I have said this game will be terrible and both teams are awful, but one thing I can say since Mason Rudolph took over from Will Levis at QB is that he loves targeting his tight end with Chig having 21 targets over the past fortnight, ending with 17 receptions and a longest of 12 and 22 in those two games.
This week he gets to face a Jaguars team who rank as one of the worst on defense and I don't see why they'd go away from their Chiggy as they look to grind out a result.
