Next England manager odds: Significant Guardiola movement splits opinion

Another international break is coming to an end, but the FA still don’t appear to be in any rush to find a permanent successor for Gareth Southgate. 

Southgate decided to call time on his eight-year spell in charge of the England national team shortly after the Three Lions’ heartbreaking 2-1 defeat to Spain in the final of Euro 2024.

Here are the latest market-best odds for the 10 likeliest candidates to be the England manager:

The top-five favourites to be next England manager

Thomas Tuchel – 4/7

Thomas Tuchel has been without a job since he parted ways with Bayern Munich at the end of last season. During this time, there’s also been some chatter about him possibly taking over from Erik ten Hag at Manchester United. However, a recent article from the German publication Bild suggests he might be leaning towards the England national team position.

It seems as though Bild might be onto something, with further rumours that Tuchel is already in talks with the FA. While having a German manager might not sit well with some English purists, the 51-year-old has had a pretty impressive run as a manager lately, clinching league titles in both France and Germany, and even winning the Champions League with Chelsea in 2021.

Further reports of advanced talks with the FA also began to break on Tuesday 15th October, with a flurry of bets for Tuchel's appointment causing markets to react by shortening to as little as 2/7. Bet365's Sports and Trading expert Steve Freeth spoke out on this development, saying: “There was plenty of support for Pep Guardiola after reports linking him with the job seeing him cut from 10/1 into 6/4 since Sunday night.

“But once news of Tuchel – who was as big as 50/1 at the beginning of October – being in talks with the FA had broken it was all hands to the pump with punters gobbling up the 6/4 before he was slashed into 2/7.

Pep Guardiola – 5/1

Early in the week following England's October win over Finland, the Man City supremo saw his odds slashed with certain bookmakers, with William Hill even making him a favourite over Tuchel. For those who believe he can translate his club-level tactics to the international scene, this is exciting news.

Guardiola has shot down rumours that he’s already made up his mind to leave City after the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup wraps up. However, Txiki Begiristain is set to leave the Etihad Stadium at the end of the season after being the director of football since 2012.

He was instrumental in City’s early achievements, including a Premier League title and a Carabao Cup win, before bringing Guardiola on board in July 2016. The two have a history together, having collaborated at both Barcelona and the Spain national team.

It’s not easy to speculate whether this development will cause Guardiola to finally leave the Etihad Stadium. But there is also the matter of City’s hearing against 115 alleged breaches of financial regulations, which could still see drastic points deductions that affect City’s long-term future, and have a knock-on effect on Guardiola’s final decision.

Guardiola has entered the last year of his contract and he has hinted that this could be his last season at the Etihad. Not only has Guardiola overseen unparalleled success with City, but he has completely transformed English football as a whole with his total football philosophy.

Lee Carsley – 10/1

England’s new era under Lee Carsley started positively, with the interim boss steering his side to a pair of 2-0 UEFA Nations League wins over both the Republic of Ireland and Finland back in October. That led Carsley to stay as the favourite to be the next England boss, but then came a disaster, as England lost 2-1 to Greece in a shambolic performance that showed little defensive nous or positional awareness.

Even a 3-1 win over Finland on Sunday failed to convince a lot of people about his credentials. Although the England Under 21 manager is believed to be well thought of by the FA, this latest price represents a drastic lengthening from the 1/5 he enjoyed with some bookmakers after September’s internationals.

Eddie Howe – 10/1

The Newcastle boss is well-regarded after piloting the Magpies from the relegation zone to the top four in the Premier League – not to mention the miracle he pulled off when taking Bournemouth from League Two to the top flight in the space of just six years.

Howe’s contract with the Magpies is set to run until the summer of 2027, so a costly compensation obstacle would have to be overcome, giving logic to his current market-best price.

Graham Potter – 11/1

Initially the bookmakers' favourite to replace Southgate, Graham Potter seems to be a less likely candidate, even though the shortening of his odds from as much as 16/1 in late September hints that he is not entirely out of the running yet.

The 49-year-old has been out of work since April 2023, following an ill-fated seven-month spell in charge of Chelsea. Prior to his brief spell at Stamford Bridge, Potter enjoyed plenty of success at Brighton.

Southgate was criticised throughout his tenure for his risk-averse tactics, and Potter would certainly inject a more proactive approach into an England team laced with world-class talent.

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