Wealdstone vs Barnet
The title favourites travel across London to play Wealdstone in the late kick-off on Saturday night.
The hosts have won just one of their opening nine games, losing five. Games have been tight and close, with a total of just 17 goals, an average of 1.89 goals per 90 minutes. Wealdstone have managed just one clean sheet this season, when they beat a poor side, Fylde, 1-0.
Over their last 40 league games, they have won just 12 and lost 18, and more recently, they have just six wins from the last 29 fixtures. My rankings have them 18th on xPTS, scoring six goals from an xG of 9.37, with only four teams having registered fewer shots than the Stones. Defensively, they played to their xG, with nine goals conceded from an xGA of 10.94.
Barnet opened the season with W6-D0-L3. Defeats came on the opening day: a 2-1 reverse at Halifax, with Barnet winning on xG 1.54 vs 0.89; a 3-1 defeat at Maidenhead despite winning the xG battle 1.72 vs 1.05; and a 2-0 defeat at Gateshead, where again they won the xG battle 2.0 vs 1.38. They have won the xG battle in every game this season, averaging 1.97 vs 0.72.
I have them top of the table on xPTS with no team having generated more xG with 19 goals scored from 17.05 xG whilst at the back they have conceded 11 goals from a xGA of 7.84.
The odds clearly reflect Barnet's three road defeats, but they have been unfortunate.
- Best Bet: Barnet to beat Wealdstone at 1.75 with Betway
Sutton vs Ebbsfleet
Ebbsfleet have conceded 18 goals from their nine games, of which 12 have come on the road. They conceded five at Gateshead, three to Yeovil and four to Altrincham, although they did manage a 0-0 stalemate with draw specialists Braintree. There is no surprise to see that the away team have conceded 119 shots so far this season, an average of 12.03 per 90 minutes. No side in the division has given up more touches of the ball by the opposition in their own penalty area than Ebbsfleet.
Sutton have struggled this season with W3-D3-L3 scoring 14 goals and conceding 13 in the process. They did put five past Altrincham at the start of the season, the side that put four past Ebbsfleet. Sutton held league leaders York to a 2-2 draw at home and have found the net in three of their four home games.
Sutton sit 15th in the league table, but on xPTS they lay in 10th position. Only six sides have scored more goals and have a greater xG, whilst only four sides have had more shots. The hosts have it in them to score at least two goals here and this can be backed at an attractive 1.8
Best Bet: Sutton to score 1.5 goals at 1.8 with Bet365
Solihull Moors vs Southend
The hosts have found some consistency over the last few weeks with back-to-back wins over Rochdale and Yeovil. They started with W1-L2, losing at Fylde and Eastleigh, but since the defeat to the latter, they have returned W3-D2-L1.
The opening day defeat was a poor result but the 2-1 defeat at Eastleigh was unfortunate as they won the xG battle 1.15 vs 1.01, although they did lose the shot count. Since that game they have won the xG battle in each of their games. My rankings have them second on xPTS and only Rochdale have a lower xGA than Moors. They have been unlucky to concede 10 goals with a xGA of just 6.42.
Southend are 17th in the league standings whilst I have them 12th on xPTS, but their record this season is poor with W2-D4-L3. Their two victories have been against Boston, who sit 18th and Eastleigh who are sixth although I have them 11th on xPTS. Last time out they lost to Fylde who are one of the poorer teams in the league.
The Shrimpers have only won twice in their last 10 league games. If the game ends in a draw we get our stake back, so I am happy to take the hosts on the draw no bet at odds of 2.1 with Skybet.
- Best Bet: Solihull Moors Draw no bet (DNB) at 2.1 with Skybet.
