Tennis fans are treated to a rarity this week, as Rafael Nadal plays his third consecutive event in a row, for the first time in the best part of two years. The Spaniard squares off against qualifier Zizou Bergs at the ATP Rome Masters, and we’ve got the best Nadal vs Bergs prediction and betting tips ahead of the first ball.
All eyes will naturally be on Nadal in this clash, given the star power the 23-time Grand Slam champion brings to the court and his history at this event. The 37-year-old has claimed a record 10 titles here at the Foro Italico. This year, it may well be his last time participating, with Nadal open about the fact that he’s unlikely to play beyond 2024.
Nadal has been building nicely across the clay season so far. He picked up a first round victory in Barcelona over Flavio Cobolli, and was competitive for one set against world No 11 Alex de Minaur in the second round. The next week, he backed up with an improved performance, getting revenge on the Aussie en route to the fourth round of Madrid, where he fell to Jiri Lehecka.
Can Rafa continue his comeback and make a deep run here in Rome? Read on for our breakdown of this opening match up.
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How the Bookies View It: Nadal a Heavy Favourite
Bookmakers have clearly been impressed by Nadal’s showing over the last month, and have him as a heavy favourite coming into this round one clash in Rome. The Spaniard pays just 1/8 for victory, with Bergs a big underdog at 5/1. A straight sets win to Nadal is seen as the most likely result, with this outcome paying just 4/11.
Recent Head-to-Head: First Meeting
This will be the pair’s first meeting on the ATP Tour. Bergs is just 24 years old and is yet to crack the world’s top 100, so has had limited opportunities to compete against top players so far in his career.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Don’t sleep on Bergs in this fixture. The Belgian may be ranked No 108 in the world, but he’s in sharp form on clay courts right now. Most recently, he took Frenchman Luca van Assche to a deciding set in Madrid, prior to which he won a Challenger title in Tallahassee. This was off the back of another Challenger final in Sarasota, before which he had taken a set off Ben Shelton in Houston.
Nadal is optimistic about his physical conditioning right now. He’s spoken to media recently, and shared that while he popped home for a few days between Madrid and Rome, he was able to comfortably take to the courts and practice. Given that he played four matches in Madrid–one of which was three hours long–this is a great sign for the Spaniard’s chances this week.
Nadal vs Bergs Betting Tips & Predictions
Expect Nadal to continue his clay court momentum and get through to the second round. However, we’re backing Bergs to play freely and come away with a set, considering he’s been able to do the same against Tsitsipas and Shelton this season.
- Nadal to win 2-1 @ 7/2
- Total games over 20.5 @ 21/20
This match takes place second on Center Court this Thursday, so get your bets in quickly if you’re backing Nadal to prevail here.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
