SOMETIMES you can't ignore that stats even if the form is shouting the opposite.
Take Aberdeen for example. They crashed to a 10th defeat in a row against a Celtic side heavy-legged after a midweek trip to Russia and not firing at their best.
But once again the Dons failed to grasp their chance and even conceded a second when Celtic were down to 10 men.
The result was a blow not only to the Pittodrie side but to Rangers as well as they were hoping to keep the gap at the top to more than six before they entertain Celtic in a couple of weeks. Although Graeme Murty will take heart from the fact his men are now favourites to finish second.
Despite my better judgment I risked Aberdeen draw no bet as the Super Single and took them to score on the Top Treble so both were beaten.
I was spot on with my Carabao Cup tips and while there weren't many shocks I managed to pick two of the sides who were surprisingly beaten in my moneyback fivefold – Lyon and RB Leipzig.
Well done to Jordan for his two winners on the Lazio game while Greg like me could have done with Aberdeen hitting the target. Scott Allot's treble became a winning double after the Juventus game was called off by snow.
On Monday there are a couple of big teams in action with Napoli heading to Cagliari and Dortmund entertaining Augsburg. In La Liga entertainers Real Betis are off to Levante and there other games dotted about the Continent.
Napoli are in great form and are a best 4-11 at Willliam Hill to win at a venue where they have recorded 5-0 and 3-0 wins on their last two visits. At home this season they beat Cagliari 3-0 and this should be another convincing victory.
Talking of stats Napoli have won 14 out of 15 away from home in Serie A and netted at least three goals in their last six against Cagliari.
Dortmund are also in good shape with four wins in a row and a draw at Atalanta that put them into the last 16 of the Europa League. Augsburg on the other hand have won one out of five and lost heavily on three of six visits to the Westfalen.
I don't mind keeping it simple with a double on Napoli and Dortmund that pays a best evens with BetVictor and Ladbrokes among others. But I'd like to reduce the accumulator losses before the month ends so I'm making it a treble.
Levante v Real Betis looks good for goals with Levante's last five going over 2.5 goals and it's the same for five out of six for Betis who lost 5-3 at home to Real Madrid last time out.
Betis should win this with Levante having failed to take three points from any of their last 12. They are a best 2-1 at Marathonbet but stick to goals with over 2.5 paying as much as 5-6.
Elsewhere there are a couple of Jupiler league games to look at while in Portugal there should be wins for Braga and Sporting at home to Tondela and Moreirense respectively.
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2pts Top Treble
- Dortmund (7.30pm)
- Napoli (7.45pm)
- Levante v Real Betis over 2.5 goals (8pm)
- (27-10, Marathonbet)
February Super Singles Total: +17.6pts
February Advised Accas Total: -26.8pts
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