Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Bet 5 – France vs England – Saturday 18th July at 10pm
My bet is over 1.5 goals and France to score in Miami. The case rests on the tournament data, England's defensive record and one of the strongest trends in recent World Cup history.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in four of the last five third place matches. Germany beat Portugal 3-1 in 2006 and Uruguay 3-2 in 2010, the Netherlands beat Brazil 3-0 in 2014, and Croatia beat Morocco 2-1 in 2022. The only exception was Belgium's 2-0 win over England in 2018, which still cleared this lower line.
These games tend to be more open because the pressure of knockout football has gone. Both sides have already lost their semi-final, leaving less reason to protect the result or manage the match cautiously.
France have scored in six of their seven tournament fixtures. Their only blank came against Spain, who have allowed just 0.35 xGA per game. England offer a much easier defensive test. They have conceded nine goals across five of their seven matches, including two against Croatia, Mexico, Norway and Argentina.
My model gives France a 77.8% chance of scoring. The projected total of 2.71 goals also produces an 82% probability of over 1.5 goals.
France average 2.09 xGF per game, the highest figure among the four teams playing on the final weekend. Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola give them enough attacking quality to trouble an England defence that has looked vulnerable throughout the tournament.
The history, France's attacking numbers and England's defensive record all point towards over 1.5 goals and France to score.
- Bet: Over 1.5 match goals & France to score
- Odds: 1/5
- 28.50 units returns 34.20
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
GambleAware