Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Luton and Leicester shared 12 first half corners as our bet won inside the opening 30 minutes of the game. Come the of the match there had been 17 corners as our bet won with ease.
Bet 3 – Genoa vs Venezia – Sunday 25th October at 14:00
Sunday's Serie A meeting between Genoa and Venezia at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris looks a strong candidate for goals, with both sides showing defensive vulnerabilities that make over 1.5 match goals an attractive selection at 1.30.
Genoa have seen at least two goals in all four of their home league fixtures this season, although their results have been mixed. A 2-0 defeat against Napoli was followed by a 4-1 loss to Como, before a 1-1 draw with Frosinone and a 2-1 victory over Fiorentina. Those four matches have produced 12 goals, with Genoa scoring four and conceding eight.
The underlying numbers suggest Genoa's defensive problems are more than a temporary run of poor results. They are allowing an average of 5.50 shots on target and 2.50 big chances per home game, alongside an xGA of 1.32. Their own attacking output has been relatively modest, averaging 1.20 xG, but Venezia's away record offers encouragement that the hosts can contribute.
Venezia have lost all three away league matches, conceding eight goals against AC Milan, Frosinone and Atalanta. More concerning is the quality and frequency of opportunities they are allowing, with an average of 8.00 shots on target and 5.33 big chances conceded per away fixture. Their xGA of 2.10 reinforces those defensive concerns.
However, Venezia have also shown some attacking threat despite their results, averaging 1.82 xG on their travels and scoring against both Frosinone and Atalanta.
Across the seven relevant home and away fixtures, Over 1.5 goals has landed every time, with an average of 3.29 goals per match. While the sample remains relatively small, the underlying attacking and defensive figures provide further support for the selection.
With both teams regularly allowing opponents opportunities and Venezia particularly vulnerable defensively, over 1.5 match goals at 1.30 is my selection.
- Bet: Over 1.5 goals
- Odds: 3/10
- Bank: 14.88 units returns 19.34
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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