The first El Clasico of the season arrives in the 10th round, just as both Barcelona and Real Madrid appear to be in top form. Will Jose Mourinho turn around his losing record in this derby from his previous spell with Los Blancos?
Barcelona suffered a heavy defeat to PSG in the Champions League this week, though this is not really such a surprise. It is no coincidence that the Parisians won the Champions League in the last two seasons.
This defeat was Barca’s first of the season and does not alter the fact that they are the highest-scoring team in Europe.
To illustrate their dominance so far, consider this: in 6 of their 11 wins this season, they have scored 5 or more goals. In 9 of their 11 wins, they have scored 3+ goals.
However, defensive issues remain, and these are all the more evident when they face a team of their own calibre. We saw this against PSG, and now it remains to be seen whether Real Madrid will also capitalise on their mistakes.
Los Blancos recorded their fourth consecutive victory this week, and their third straight win with four goals scored. If we exclude their two away defeats in La Liga, Real Madrid look almost as dominant this season.
But it is precisely these two defeats that have left Los Blancos six points behind Barcelona. If they lose on Sunday, many people would write them off in the title race, even though the season is still in its early stages.
How the bookies view it: Los Blancos need a stellar performance
The difference in the odds is nothing short of shocking, with bookmakers all but ruling out the visitors’ chances.
At the moment, you can back Barcelona at 13/20, whilst Real Madrid are available at 29/10. If, on the other hand, you reckon they might share the points, you can back a draw at 9/2.
Recent head-to-head: Barca have been flawless
Speaking of draws, we haven’t seen one in the last 13 La Liga H2Hs. Barcelona have certainly had the upper hand in recent years, winning six of their last seven matches against Real Madrid.
Their most recent 2-0 victory in May secured their latest title. Real Madrid’s last away win was in 2023.
For the record, Jose Mourinho has led Real Madrid in 17 El Clasicos in the past, and so far has five wins next to six defeats (D6).
Players to watch: Raphinha rarely misses against Real Madrid
Hansi Flick took some of his first-team regulars off in the 60th minute against PSG, presumably to rest them for El Clasico.
Raphinha was one of those substituted, having failed to make much of an impact on the match. I expect him to return to his early-season form soon, and what better match to shine in than this one.
There’s certainly good reason to keep an eye on him, given that he’s scored seven goals in his last seven appearances against Real Madrid.
Probable line-ups
Barcelona: Garcia, Espart, Martin, Cubarsi, Cancelo, Pedri, Rodri, Gordon, Fermin, Yamal, Raphinha
Real Madrid: Courtois, Cucurella, Huijsen, Konate, Valverde, Bernardo, Tchouameni, Guler, Bellingham, Diomande, Mbappe
Anything else catch the eye?
It’s unlikely we’ll see a repeat of the last match between the two sides, which Barca won 2–0. Real Madrid look considerably better under Mourinho, whilst Barcelona have kept just two clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
And yet the fact remains that they have the highest-scoring attack in the top five leagues, with no one else even coming close. By way of comparison, they have scored 39 goals in La Liga, compared to just 23 for Real Madrid.
Given Los Blancos’ inconsistent form away from home, I really do think Barcelona have a better chance of winning the match.
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