Azaniya 10/3 – Saint-Cloud 11.48
It's an early start to racing in France, and I think we could get the Lucky 15 off to a good start with Azaniya.
She was behind Miss Justice when the pair raced in France last time out, but Azaniya was returning from a much longer absence than the winner, and I think with fitness now in her favour, she can reverse that form and beat the new challengers.
Owen Burrows has to be the most in-form trainer in Europe at the moment, with six of his last eleven runners being winners (55% strike rate), and it's timed well for this filly, who loves testing ground and running in France. She has recorded half of her wins in France and her win on heavy ground over today's course and distance last November was very impressive. Anything close to that performance would make her very difficult to beat.
Jabracadabra 5/1 – Saint-Cloud 2.50
With a lot of Group 1 staying contests within the last month, it has resulted in this contest being full of horses who aren't really Group 1 level horses, but one of them has to win it, and I thought Jabracadabra could benefit.
Queenstown is the one to beat after two very good efforts in the last month in the two Group 1s, but he has had two hard races in quick succession, and I think that might catch up with him. The rest of the field have questions which need to be answered, whether that's the trip or the ground.
Amy Murphy's three-year-old has improved plenty throughout this year and has gotten better with every attempt at a longer trip. He won a Group 2 at Longchamp at the start of the month over half a furlong shorter, but was powering away at the finish. That was a career best, but I think he will be better on today's slower ground. 5/1 is a bit ridiculous, especially with the weight-for-age allowance in his favour.
Dubai Honour 2/1 – San Siro 3.00
If Dubai Honour still has his ability at the age of eight, he should be able to win this race quite comfortably.
We have seen him run this year, so we have a gauge of what's left in the tank, but I don't think it's a true representation. Over the years, Dubai Honour has done his best performances in Australia, but on testing ground. This year, he has raced on good to firm and good to soft, and still ran well on every start. Last time out, he was second to Goliath, who we know is a very talented horse around the 1m 4f trip.
With the ground being heavy, I think he has no excuses for today's race. It's in Italy at the San Siro track, a track I'm not familiar with, so I can't say if the track will suit him or not, but based on his ability on testing ground, he has to be the one to beat.
Western Monkey 9/2 – Aintree 12.40
Taking on a Skelton horse at the moment is risky, as the yard is thriving and pumping out winners, but Western Monkey is a horse with plenty of ability if he can iron out his jumping problems.
Backing a horse as inexperienced as Western Monkey is and a horse who showcased jumping issues on his debut last year, is risky, but he has had 326 days off the track and a long time to work on his flaws.
I really like that Harry Derham hasn't rushed his horse, and he has nursed him. Harry Derham is a great trainer, and I have confidence that he has drilled his jumping to ensure he has the lowest possible chance of making jumping errors.
GambleAware