THINGS didn't go quite to plan on Monday at the 2013 Internazionali BNL d'Italia when a fairly awful performance from Paulo Lorenzi allowed Kei Nishikori too much of an easy ride in the late-night match.
In front of a virtually empty Centrale Court at around midnight local time Kei saved all seven of the break-point chances against him and didn't have to work too hard against a lacklustre Lorenzi who unforgivably failed to make any returns against a clearly injured opponent.
Nishikori had a medical time out due to a hip problem and with his history of retiring and withdrawing he's one to back against as favourite in the next round.
Tuesday sees the big guns enter the fray at the Foro Italico and Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro and Tomas Berdych all have what appear to be fairly straightforward opening matches today.
Federer doesn't have the best of records here and may be vulnerabl but surely Potito Starace isn't the man to take advantage even in front of his home crowd. He'll certainly need more support than was available for Lorenzi last night.
There are a few I'm interested in today and it's certainly worth another cheeky lay of Nicolas Almagro at 1.22 today against Julien Benneteau. We profited last week from Nico's hip injury when laying him against Mikhail Youzhny and by all accounts he's no better this week which makes the 1.22 a great starting point for a lay-to-back or outright lay.
I actually was under the impression he'd withdrawn from the tournament yesterday but if he does take to the court it's worth a small risk he won't complete today or get beaten.
The lucky loser that was set to play Almagro but now gets Viktor Troicki after Janko Tipsarevic pulled out is Lukas Rosol and what a great draw this is for the Czech after he destroyed Troicki on slow clay in Bucharest during his title winning run there a few weeks ago.
Rosol lost in qualifying here to Andrey Kuznetsov but there may well have been an element of Lukas knowing he was already in the draw as a lucky loser so I'm not putting too much value on that result.
Having won three of his four matches against Troicki and all three played on clay the price on another Rosol win of around 1.71 looks worth taking when this match begins at around 11.30am UK time today.
The match of the day is surely Grigor Dimitrov versus Richard Gasquet and that one is well worth watching but as a betting medium there are too many variables for me to get involved in what is essentially a pick 'em match.
I would say Gasquet is a touch short at 1.73 and I'd probably wait for bigger before betting on the Frenchman today. I have him outright at a silly price which is enough for me in that one.
Recommended Bets
Back Rosol to beat Troicki at 1.71
Lay or lay-to-back Almagro to beat Benneteau at 1.22
Milesey (Betfair)
In December 2020 we sadly 
Every boxer who takes up the sport dreams of winning a world title. The good ones work steadily towards that goal until the time is right but sometimes luck plays a part and opportunity knocks. That’s been the case for Lee Purdy who will be hoping that fortune also favours the brave.
It should’ve been Kell Brook squaring off against IBF champion Devon Alexander but Brook’s injury cast that bout aside for the third time leaving Alexander in need of an opponent. Step forward the enterprising Eddie Hearn and the always willing Purdy to fill the void. This isn’t quite Rocky Balboa taking on Apollo Creed but it’s not far off.
Let’s get it right, Purdy isn’t a club fighter who eats raw eggs but he’s not a world champion in waiting either. Put simply, this is an opportunity Purdy wouldn’t have expected and couldn’t refuse but most boxing fans and punters realise this is an assignment as difficult as it is unlikely. Stable-mate Gareth Rees was in a similar position when facing mission impossible against budding superstar Adrian Broner recently; Alexander isn’t that good but the gap in class could be as wide.
All of which is unfortunate in a way for an honest and improving fighter like Purdy who might have worked his way into this situation anyway. Ironically, Purdy had endured a series of cancellations with Carson Jones (who gave Brook hell last year) which would have put him a step closer to this scenario. I’ve been quietly impressed by Purdy who has developed the punch to go with his aggressive, fan-friendly style. But I’ve said before in this column that I think it’s a style which will only take Purdy so far. In terms of ability, this is plenty far enough.
Alexander is good, he’s won world titles at two different weights but he’s also extremely fast and that’s a dangerous combination for a front-foot fighter like Purdy. The St Louis man has been in against champions or former champs in each of his last seven outings, only the classy, tough-nut Timothy Bradley has beaten him during that run. That includes wins over Argentinian hard men Lucas Matthysse and Marcos Maidana who gave Amir Khan such a roller-coaster night. Purdy is working his way toward fringe world class but Alexander has been there for a while if not among the elite.
Purdy fans will be banking on Alexander underestimating their man or hoping that Purdy can get close and land a big punch, both of which are possible but unlikely. Alexander has survived and beaten bigger punchers and better men than Purdy so this would be as big a shock as any in recent years. Harsh critics would say Alexander has appeared ‘flaky’ at times but not at this level, it simply shouldn’t come into the argument. The question for punters here is how long Purdy lasts and can he push Alexander at least all the way?
The champion has been the distance in four of his last five fights and can be safety first as witnessed by the dull, points win over the reluctant Randall Bailey last October, so there is hope for those that fancy DEC/TD 2.62 as method of victory. But Alexander has been ruthless on occasion in the past when circumstance or opponents allow and that looks the case here. Junior Witter (who beat Colin Lynes) was halted in eight, as was Juan Urango who fans will remember going 12 rounds with Ricky Hatton. Urango, like Purdy, is a strong, aggressive fighter and he was unhinged by an uppercut in spectacular fashion. I see that sort of fight and that sort of finish unfolding here. If there is an angle in it might be to look at round betting rounds six through nine.
I’m told that promoters Goldenboy desire an Alexander v Amir Khan bout in December and if Khan wins he gets the Charlie Bucket ticket to face Mayweather next May. So as ever there is a lot riding on this for Alexander and pressure with it but there is massive incentive, financial and otherwise, too. I don’t expect any mistakes from Alexander and I don’t think the likeable Purdy is good enough to ask those questions anyway. Alexander should look good winning here and he’d be favoured to beat another Brit in Khan down the line too.
Recommended Bet
Back Devon Alexander to win by KO/TKO at 1.62
Milesey
‘Styles make fights’ is one of the most oft-repeated boxing adages, but it’s not one that Britain’s Lee Purdy will draw much comfort from as he tries to shock IBF welterweight title-holder Devon Alexander in Atlantic City on May 17th. The Essex banger received his surprise chance due to yet another injury delay denying us the chance to see Sheffield’s Kell Brook tested at the highest level.
The problem is that the 25-year-old Purdy hasn’t even proved himself the cream of the crop in domestic circles. It’s only five fights back that he was losing to the likes of Colin Lynes, although he’s stopped four in a row since that decision defeat, his record now standing at 20 wins in 24 fights (three losses, one draw).
Purdy is a tenacious fighter with good power; handy tools for an underdog to have. Unfortunately, the American he’s up against has exactly the wrong style to be caught out by Purdy’s bombs. The 26-year-old Alexander is a slick, speedy southpaw who’s comfortable fighting off the back foot. He has bags of natural ability and, while he sometimes flatters to deceive and drifts unspectacularly through fights, he’s lost only once in 25 fights (to Tim Bradley in a unification fight).
The odds on Purdy are long for a two-horse race, but given how the pair match-up, it’s very difficult to make a case for an upset victory. That’s not the case in the card’s main event, however, where I think the odds are surprisingly lopsided.
Going back to that old adage and it’s stylistically understandable why Lucas Matthysse starts as a favourite against controversial Amir Khan-conquering Lamont Peterson. Matthysse is one of the heaviest-handed fighters in boxing, while Peterson tends to fight in an aggressive, pressurising style. The consensus opinion is that this suits his Argentinean opponent down to the ground; most envision Peterson walking onto Matthysse’s chopping right hands and uppercuts, then finding himself hurt and on the canvas.
It makes sense, especially as the 29-year-old Peterson is the smaller man and, while never stopped, he’s been knocked down by Tim Bradley, Victor Ortiz and Amir Khan. Still, I get the feeling Matthysse is being ever so slightly overrated. The 30-year-old is a strong, solid boxer with good fundamentals and should arguably be undefeated. His only two losses came in disputed, split-decision defeats against Zab Judah and the aforementioned Alexander.
However, he’s a tad one-paced and one-dimensional. Peterson has edges in speed and punch output. If – and it’s a pretty whopping if – he can avoid the majority of Matthysse’s power punches (and handle those that will inevitably land at some point), he has the workrate to outlast Matthysse. It’s a high-wire act without a net, as Matthysse’s record of 31 knockouts in 35 pro fights chillingly illustrate. But if the all-action Peterson can box to his maximum, there’s a good chance he can sneak a decision, even if he has to climb off the canvas in order to do it.
Recommended Bet
Lucas Matthysse against Lamont Peterson looks an evenly matched fight to me. So I’d say the odds on Peterson to win on points are currently too long at 4.4. There’s always the danger that Matthysse can render that foolish with one powerful blow, but Peterson has shown a survivor’s heart in the past and so I’ll be backing him to get the decision.
Milesey
GAYLE TOP SCORED WITH 77 RUNS :) :)
Milesey
Royal Challengers Bangalore v Kings XI Punjab
Tuesday 14 May 2013 at 11:30 BST
Live on ITV4 and itv.com
Royal Challengers Bangalore
RCB stand on the brink of qualification but it’s been a mixed season for Virat Kohli’s men who need to bounce back following a lacklustre display against KKR. The Royal Challengers will forever be accused of being a one-man team and there will be some concerns after Chris Gayle’s subdued performance along with a general all-round failure to come to terms with a difficult Ranchi pitch.
The good news for RCB fans lies in a perfect home record that has seen them won six out of six at the M.Chinnaswamy Stadium and while home advantage is a debatable benefit in the short format, you simply can’t ignore that kind of return.
Kings XI Punjab
Kings won the reverse fixture in Mohali earlier this month thanks to the lone efforts of David Miller who scored the third fastest century in IPL history. That knock proved that it only takes one major innings to upset any T20 result odds but can anyone in the away side repeat that feat in this crucial tie?
Miller’s own form has fallen away slightly since that game and David Hussey has now lost to place to Luke Pomersbach after a string of low scores. Adam Gilchrist has returned to the side but has made little impact and while Shaun Marsh has performed well, he does seem to be playing at less than full fitness following a hamstring issue.
There remains real danger amongst that roster of overseas players but you feel that only a knock of David Miller’s magnitude will give Kings any chance of claiming the points.
Venue and Conditions
First innings scores at the M.Chinnaswamy have been fairly consistent and in six matches, four of those totals have fallen between 152 and 161. The only real anomaly came in RCB’s match against Pune when Chris Gayle’s 175 drove them to make 263 but that only boosted the average to 167 – a minimum target for anyone taking first knock. The forecast for this match suggests some heavy cloud cover and even a threat of rain which could bring the lottery of Duckworth Lewis into the equation.
Match odds
Bangalore are clear favourites at 1.55 while Punjab are out at a very generous 2.6. Kings XI certainly have a chance and there is some real value in that price but will need either a big innings approaching three figures from one of their batters, or some help from the DL method in a shortened game. Either of those scenarios could happen and it could be a close affair but a RCB win seems far more likely.
Top Bangalore Batsman
I’d correctly called Chris Gayle for Bangalore’s last match against KKR but I hadn’t expected him to top score with just 33 from 36 balls. It’s said that the patient Cheteshwar Pujara is a perfect foil for his opening partner but perhaps his 5 from 14 balls put Gayle under too much pressure in that contest.
There are other contenders in Virat Kohli and AB De Villiers but if Pujara is rested it should free Chris Gayle up to play his natural game and he would give you the return at around 2.75.
Top Punjab Batsman
Shaun Marsh is the favourite here at 3.0 or better while Miller remains a danger despite his lack of form and will attract a lot of money at around 4.5. However, Punjab fans have yet to see the best of Luke Pomersbach and the power hitting Aussie should make a major contribution here at 5.0 or better.
Recommended Bet
Back Chris Gayle to top score for Bangalore at around 2.75
Milesey
The Volvo World Match Play Championship
Tournament History
First staged back in 1964 and won by Arnold Palmer, the Volvo World Match Play Championship is now a very different event to the old autumnal Wentworth treat that many will remember with much fondness. It was oh so easy back then – a collection of the world’s best would turn up at Ernie Els’ gaff, saunter round Surrey’s finest for a few days and then Ernie Els would collect the trophy and all those that followed the most obvious selection in the golfing calendar collected their winnings, halcyon days indeed.
But like many good things in life, it didn’t last forever and for reasons best known to others, it was decided that the event required a complete overhaul and now we have a very different format in a different country at a different time of year.
Format
24 players contest over four days. The first half of the tournament, Thursday and Friday, is spent whittling 24 down to 16. I know, I know, surely they’d be better off just having 32 entrants and a straight knockout from the start but no, that’s obviously far too simple. Instead the top 16 players have been seeded, and they’ve been put into eight groups of three, with each group containing one of the eight un-seeded players. Seed one has been paired with seed 16, seed two with seed 15 and so on and so forth. The two seeds in each group play each other on Wednesday afternoon, and then each seeded player takes on the non-seed in their respective groups on Friday. First and second in each group of three then advance to the last-16 and they play on Saturday morning. The quarter-finals are on Saturday afternoon and the semi-finals and final are staged on Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon. All matches are over 18 holes.
Venue
Thracian Cliffs Golf & Beach Resort, Kavarna, Bulgaria
Course Details
Par 72, 7291 yards
Judging by some of the pictures and videos, we’re in for a real treat this week. Course designer, Gary Player, declares that, “You will not find a golf course like this anywhere else on the planet” and he may have a point. Nicknamed the Pebble Beach of Europe, the Black Sea is in view on every hole. Please see links below for more details, paying particular attention to the spectacular 6th hole and the unique 7th tee, which sits out to sea!
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 12.00pm on Thursday
Last Five Winners
2012 – Nicolas Colsaerts
2011 – Ian Poulter
2010 – No event
2009 – Ross Fisher
2008 – No event
2007 – Ernie Els (Staged at Wentworth)
2006 – Paul Casey (Staged at Wentworth)
Is there an identikit winner?
Match play experience is massive at this event, as it is at the WGC World Match Play. Last year’s winner, Nicolas Colsaerts, didn’t have the richest match play pedigree, although he had reached the last four the year before, and he went on to show victory in this event was no fluke when impressing greatly at the Ryder Cup.
As a rule of thumb, if you’re backing someone with no form in this event, the WGC World Match Play or the Ryder Cup, think very carefully before you press the blue back button.
Don’t concern yourself with temperament when it comes to weighing up match play wagers. Last year’s victor, Colsaerts, gets in his own way in stroke play events and with just one win in well over 200 European Tour starts he’s rarely a value proposition in stroke play, but match play is very different. You only have to concern yourself with what your opponent’s doing and many a wobbly stroke play exponent has excelled in this format.
In-Play Tactics
There was plenty of value about on Thursday and Friday at last year’s event, as there was in 2011, and I’m pretty sure it will be the same this year. Over the last two years, layers didn’t seem to fully grasp that losing your first match is far from fatal and both the last two winners traded at very handsome prices in-running.
Ian Poulter, in 2011, like last year’s champion, Colsaerts, managed to win the title despite failing to win either of his first two matches. Poults drew both his round-robin matches two years ago and Colsaerts fared even worse twelve months ago. After drawing with Charl Schwartzel on Thursday, he lost to Retief Goosen on Friday morning and spent the afternoon sleeping. A surprise win by the Goose over Schwartzel meant that that the big Belgian needed waking for a sudden-death playoff with Schwartzel, which he duly won.
It’s also worth scanning the market while the early matches, in particular, are in progress. I see from last year’s notes, that I backed eventual runner-up, Graeme McDowell, at a very decent price, the moment he was guaranteed a place in the next round when Martin Kaymer lost to Richard Finch. It’s laborious but it can be worth the effort.
Market Leaders
It’s no surprise to see first and second seeds, Graeme McDowell and Ian Poulter, vying for favouritism. G-Mac is a very experienced Ryder Cupper with event form to boot -he lost last year’s final to Colsaerts. Having only just won the RBC Heritage in the States he’s in better form than Poulter but I prefer the Englishman.
Poulter almost single-handedly won the Ryder Cup last year, is arguably the best match play exponent in the world and is impossible to discount in any match play tournament. I know he’s missed his last two cuts and hasn’t looked great all year but you can never ever discount him in this format.
The 2007 WGC World Match Play champ, Henrik Stenson, is in fine form (tied 5th at The Players Championship on Sunday) but I’d be a bit worried about the effect a weekend in-contention will have and I’m not mad keen on the defending champ either…
It’s never easy to defend a title and those that do so are usually mentally strong, something I’m not convinced the big-hitting Belgian is. Colsaerts was perfectly suited to last year’s especially long venue and although he could very well take to this one too, at just 12.0, he’s definitely not for me.
Selections and Tactics
I fancy the best way to play any knockout event is to pick out a player from each quarter and to aim for the perfect scenario of getting all four semi-finalists onside but I’m going to put a slight twist on that tactic.
I’ve played just two from the start, one from each side of the draw, and I’m going to try and back a couple more in-running. As detailed above, opportunities often arise during the event and I was able to back both last year’s finalists’ in-play, at odds of 11.0 and 38.0.
First up is Ian Poulter, who I simply can’t leave out from the start. The price isn’t spectacular but Poults’ match play record is and if he gets on a roll he could be impossible to stop.
My only other pre-event pick is Bo Van pelt, or as he’s often cruelly dubbed, Bo Van Melt. There are pros and cons about the American this week but I fancy the pros outweigh the cons nicely and I thought he was a great price at 23.0 – I’ll start with the cons…
As his nickname suggests, Bo is far from the greatest in-contention, and given his unquestionably immense talent, it’s almost criminal that he’s only ever won just one official PGA Tour event but as detailed above, that means diddly-squat in this format.
The other negative is his lack of match play pedigree. He won a few amateur events but he hasn’t exactly shone as a pro, having never gotten past the second round in three attempts at the WGC Match Play tournament, but if you dig a little deeper, maybe he’s been a little unlucky at that event.
All three opponents to knock him out there, Mark Wilson, Poulter and Matt Kuchar, went on to reach at least the semi-finals so on each occasion, he clearly bumped into a tough adversary.
On the positive side, unusually for an American, Bo clearly likes to travel and is seen in a much better light away from home. He won the Handa Perth International on the European Tour last October and a year earlier, he won the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic in Malaysia, on the Asian Tour.
He’s the number four seed here and the 26th best player on the planet, according to the world rankings, and I fancy he’s a very fair price at 23.0.
Selections:
Ian Poulter @ 9.8
Bo Van Pelt @ 23.0
Milesey
THURSDAY PREMIER LEAGUE – DARTS
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It’s semi-finals time in the Premier League with two mouthwatering clashes as Michael van Gerwen takes on James Wade and Phil Taylor meets Raymond van Barneveld in London.
Raymond van Barneveld v Phil Taylor
Taylor is trading as a strong favourite here which is unsurprising given that Barney hasn’t beaten him on the big stage since 2008. But I fancy the Dutchman to end that run. Why? Well, let me tell you.
For starters, Phil isn’t as good as he was. He’s still the main man, the one who the others see as their biggest threat, but he gets beaten a lot more often these days and the players don’t fear him like they used to. Raymond’s record against Phil in the Premier League is shocking but Barney is playing, in my opinion, the best darts of his career right now. The big man is focused and he’s confident, all the things he hasn’t been in the last five years that’s why I think he’ll beat the Power at a good price. It’s also worth backing Barney to hit most 180s as Phil will switch far more often.
And while that big games stat is not in his favour here’s one that will provide comfort for Barney backers: the Dutchman has beaten Taylor more than any other player.
Recommended Bets
Raymond van Barneveld to win at 2.62
Van Barneveld to hit the most 180s at 1.53
Michael van Gerwen v James Wade
Let’s not beat around the bush here; if Michael plays well he wins. Wade knows how to win scrappy matches, but I just can’t see this being a scrappy affair. MVG WILL score well, that’s what he does and this will mean that James will have to hit his doubles to a 50% ratio at least or rely on Michael missing. Wade is capable of winning anything, we know that, but this is the decade of dominance starting for the Green Machine. Top up the Match Odds bet by backing MVG to hit most 180s.
Recommended Bets
Michael van Gerwen to win at 1.28
Van Gerwen to hit the most 180s at 1.4
BETFAIR
ENGLAND V NEW ZEALAND BETTING
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England have lost only one of their last 14 Tests at Lord’s
Only once in 15 matches have New Zealand come away from Lord’s with a win, back in 1999 when they beat Nasser Hussain’s England by nine wickets thanks in large part to eight wickets from Chris Cairns and a Matt Horne century.
However, four of the last six England-New Zealand clashes at Lord’s have ended as a draw, including the most recent meeting in May 2008.
That drawn match was the fifth in a line of six successive Test match draws at Lord’s, but since England drew with South Africa in July 2008 only one of nine matches have not seen a winner. England winning six of the eight matches they were involved in during that period.
Should the weather hold up, of which there is no guarantee, then the statistics suggest that the 2.0 about a victory for Alastair Cook’s men are more than fair. New Zealand are justifiably big at odds of 15.0
Recommended Bet: Back England to win @ 2.0
England average over 400 in their last nine first innings at HQ
Over the last 10 matches played at Lord’s the average first innings score is 335.35, with the team batting first averaging 411.1. Those statistics include a couple of dismal Pakistan innings when they scored just 74 against England and 148 against Australia in the space of six weeks.
Of course, these statistics offer no revelation that Lord’s is an ideal batting track, but do reinforce the idea of going big on the first innings runs markets once liquid. Especially if England are batting first – the hosts average 446.56 in first innings in our sample pool.
Ian Bell averages over 60 and has three Lord’s centuries
Alastair Cook is seventh on the list of all-time run scorers in Test matches at Lord’s having accumulated 1088 runs at an average of 47.30 and with a high score of 106. The England captain has made three centuries and seven half centuries in 14 matches since 2006.
Next on the list, of those likely to be involved this week, is Ian Bell who averages a much more impressive 61.33 with three centuries and a top score of 199 from his 12 matches.
Matt Prior also averages an imposing 54.42 here having scored three half centuries and three triple figure scores in his 16 innings, while Jonathan Trott has scored 740 runs at an average of 74.00 in 11 innings, including a top score of 226.
The best bet here has to be a toss up between Trott at 5.0 and Bell at 6.0, with the slightly larger odds perhaps tipping it in favour of the latter. But despite his position towards the top of the list Cook is worth avoiding as the favourite in this market.
Recommended Bet: Back Bell top England run scorer @ 6.0
Finn averages more than three wickets per innings in short Lord’s career
While there can be some discussion about the Top England Batsman market, in terms of statistics there is little argument to be made about England’s gun bowler. James Anderson has 51 wickets in 12 Test matches here, and Stuart Broad has 39 in 18, both featuring in the top 10 all-time wicket takers at HQ. But it is Steven Finn’s record of 25 wickets in just four matches, including a five-for, that jumps from the page.
Finn’s economy rate may not be the best, at 3.62, but that doesn’t concern us in this market. Statistically speaking Finn is a standout bet at odds of 3.8 to be England’s top wicket taker over the two-match series.
Recommended Bet: Back Finn top England series wicket taker @ 3.8
Milesey
( betfair )
EUROVISION 2013
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Patriotic pop pride has been well and truly dented over recent Eurovisions. Recent United Kingdom entrants have been nothing short of disastrous and while Engelbert Humperdinck’s entrance last year wasn’t quite a Jemini shaped disaster; his disappointing 12 point haul hardly set Europe on fire either.
Once again this year the United Kingdom has turned to a veteran performer in order to perk up our hopes. But is husky-voiced Welsh popster Bonnie Tyler the hero we’ve been holding out for, or is her entrance little more than another Fools Lullaby?
The first thing to point out is that Tyler is not another Humperdinck. You can obviously tell that just be looking at her, but unlike Engelbert the Welsh singer’s best days aren’t quite so far behind her. In fact from what we’ve seen so far, the 61-year-old still has the pipes and the stage presence to mix it with Europe’s best. She’s also, unlike the country she’s representing, still popular on the continent where not so long ago she was topping European charts.
Then there’s the song. ‘Believe In Me’ is classic Euro-bait, an uplifting rock ballad with a hearty chorus. Ballads of course tend to do well with both jurors and televoters alike. In fact, both Iceland in 2009 and Estonia last year have placed well with similar-ish efforts; so can Tyler achieve similar success?
The answer sadly is probably not. There are already plenty of better ballads that have been entered into this year’s finals, many of which performed by female vocalists who are altogether more memorable than our Bonnie.
Then there’s the problem of Britain’s lack of voting allies. The old mantra that it’s who you know not what you know rings particular true for Eurovision, which is littered with partisan voting from geographical and political allies who are all but guaranteed to award douze-points to their voting partners.
It’s an idea that explains why Balkan and other Eastern European countries tend do so well, providing seven of the last 12 competition winners. And an idea that all but insures that aside from the intervention of Malta and Ireland we’d be lucky to walk home with double figures by the end of the night.
At 32.0 in Betfair‘s Eurovision 2013 Winner market it’s hard to believe that Tyler’s ‘Believe In Me’ could walk away as an eventual winner come May 18th. However patriotic punters determined to put their money where their mouths are might find more value in the Top 10 market, an altogether more plausible achievement where 3.7 looks like a much better bet considering the sway the 80’s icon still commands on the continent.
Denmark – 3.65
The favourite in the early running is Denmark’s ‘Only Teardrops’ a folksy number which the locals no doubt hope will bring the top pop prize back across the Øresund Strait come mid-may. It’s undoubtedly one of the most polished songs in the competition. It’s not the most memorable of tracks though, but it does have pedigree having been co-written by Lisa Cabble, whose previous contributions to the contest “Fra Mols til Skagen” (1995) and “New Tomorrow” (2011) both finished in fifth place. Perhaps its biggest strength however lies in 19-year-old songstress Emmelie de Forest, a captivating and intense performer whose floaty dresses and bare feet clearly recall last year’s eventual winner Loreen. It’s arguably not as good, but at 3.65 punters clearly fancy it to go all the way.
Norway – 7.0
It looks like 2013 will be another strong year for Scandinavian entrants with Norway joining Denmark and Sweden amongst this year’s early favourites. The Norwegians have been on many betters’ radars ever since Alexander Rybak’s landslide victory in 2009, but this year’s entry looks like it might finally deliver on some of that promise. ‘I feed You My Love’ is an unashamed piece of electro-pop, a broody synth-heavy song performed with ice queen like coolness by Margaret Berger. Like last year’s winner Euphoria, it’s a well-produced piece of pop; the type of song you can imagine finding life beyond the fish bowl of continental competition. It’s got plenty of quality and a heap of early hype, but whether that translates to success in Sweden remains to be seen, particularly as voters have tended to favour more uplifting numbers in previous years.
Netherlands – 13.0
Hard as it may be to believe, the Netherlands tend to fair even worse than England when it comes to the Eurovision song contest. The Dutch haven’t qualified for the live televised finals since 2004 and last won the whole shebang all the way back in 1975. As a result it’s somewhat surprising to see them mixing it up with some of this year’s musical favourites. But in ‘Birds’, a haunting ballad performed by Anouk (a sort of diet Alanis Morissette), they’ve undoubtedly found their best entry in recent memory. The song itself is likely to be a hit with jurors, whilst the televoting public will I suspect warm to its singer. However at 13.0 the market definitely reflects uncertainty over the Netherlands’ Eurovision pedigree.
Sweden – 17.0
The question on many punters’ lips will be whether Sweden can follow up the euphoria of Loreen’s win last time out by scooping the Eurovision gong for the second year in succession. Robin Stjernberg’s ‘You’ is undoubtedly one of the better songs that will invade your earholes in this year’s competition, but it faces an uphill struggle if Sweden is going to retain its title. After all, out of the 57 previous contests only Luxemburg, Ireland and Israel have won twice in a row, which explains why confidence isn’t exactly skyhigh in the markets.
Ukraine – 17.5
Ukraine were amongst the first entrants to show their hands for this year’s contest, announcing back in December that Zlata Ognevich will represent the nation’s hopes with ‘Gravity’. The song itself is one of the more saccharine entries from this year’s contest; a mediocre musical number that you’ve forgotten before the singer’s even stepped off stage. However it’s amongst this year’s favourites for two reasons. First is Zlata herself, a singer who’ll probably prove to be amongst the best vocalists in this year’s contest and one who’s as easy on the eyes as she is on the ears. The second is Ukraine’s ever burgeoning block of voting allies, whose partisan support should put it there or there abouts when the finals get underway in Malmo.
Milesey
HORSE RACING TIPS
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WEDNESDAY 15TH MAY 2013
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2:15 YORK
NOCTURN 8/1 ladbrokes
He has won three times at 6f on good to firm and good ground. Won on his latest outing when 2-1fav at Windsor over 6f (good to firm) earlier this month, beating Blue Jack by a neck. Carries a 6lb penalty today for that success. Has won twice at Windsor this season.
2:55 UTTOXETER
DESCARO SP
Successful in two hurdle races at 2m on good and good to soft ground. Won on his latest NH outing in a claiming hurdle race when 4-1co-fav at Ludlow over 2m (good) last month, beating Lauberhorn by 4l.
3:15 YORK
MINCE 4/1 paddypower
Winner of seven races at 6f on ground varying from good to firm to soft. Won on her latest outing when 9-4fav in the Group 3 John Guest Bengough Stakes at Ascot over 6f (soft) in October last year, beating Soul by a head
3:40 FONTWELL
OWNER OCCUPIER 10/1 bet365
Successful in two chases at 2m on good ground, but last win was over two years ago. Finished 14l behind Peak Seasons when fifth of 8 at 9-2 on his latest outing in a chase at Towcester over 2m (good) last month.
4:25 YORK
PENIAPHOBIA 5/1 bet365
Foaled 8 Apr. Half-brother to Safari Sunset, won at 5f. A winner at 17-2 at Pontefract over 5f (good to firm) on his latest outing earlier this month, beating Sartori by 2 1/4l.
5:10 UTTOXETER
ROBIN WILL SP
Successful in two chases at 2m 7f and 3m on good to soft and soft ground. Third of 8 behind Regal Rumpus beaten 9l at 4-9fav on his latest outing in a chase at Exeter over 2m 3f (good) last month.
8:10 BATH
ALMALEKIAH 4/1 BETVICTOR
A winner at 6f on the all-weather. Beaten 3 1/2l by Purcell when second of 6 at 9-2 on her latest outing at Lingfield over 6f last month
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DOUBLE
2:55 UTTOXETER
DESCARO SP
5:10 UTTOXETER
ROBIN WILL SP
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3:40 FONTWELL
OWNER OCCUPIER 10/1 bet365
I am so confident on this one today, i am going to make it my NAP, it has dropped to a nice mark, and if it has a good run will take all the beating here, market confidence will make me feel abit better on this too, for i expect it to be hammered in before off time.
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Milesey
If it’s May, it must be Eurovision Song Contest time again. This year, the competition is taking play in Malmo in Sweden and yesterday evening saw the first of two semi-finals to determine the 26 finalists for Saturday’s big show.
Great Britain have gone back to the 1980s for this year’s entry, calling up the Welshwoman with the powerful lungs and enormous hair, Bonnie Tyler. ‘Believe in Me’ was written for her by acclaimed songwriter Desmond Child, who has composed Top 40 hits for artists as diverse as Kiss, Ricky Martin, Aerosmith and Kermit the Frog. The British camp have been careful to keep expectations low following last year’s overhyped and underwhelming Engelbert Humperdinck number, but picking a vintage performer has become something of a gamble in recent Eurovisions, as the voters tend to go for either the younger acts or the quirkier ones (for example, Lordi in 2006).
At odds of 90.0 Tyler’s not only a big outsider, she should probably be grateful that Britain is one of five countries guaranteed a bye into every Final.
Britain’s record in recent Eurovisions isn’t that great, with no win in the last 14 contests. Ireland, on the other hand, has a far greater pedigree. With seven victories, the Emerald Isle has won more often than any nation.
However, it is even longer since they topped the table, last winning in 1996. There’s been a perception in subsequent years that the Irish were not fielding their strongest acts in order to avoid winning, largely because the cost of staging the event (as each winner must do the following year) is so high. These rumours have, of course, always been denied by the Irish, but they are among those who have to take part in the semi-finals, which means that last night we were treated to the first sight of Ryan Dolan and his backing troupe of semi-naked, leather-trousered drummers.
One thing that the British haven’t really learned is that sometimes winning Eurovision can be as much about the spectacle as the song (surprising, given the skirt-ripping antics of Bucks Fizz) and Dolan’s act is classic Eurovision. He’s currently 70.0 to win, but expect that price to shorten in coming days. Perhaps more realistically, he’s 3.7 to finish in the top 10, a price which looks a steal at the moment.
The winner of the first semi-final – and the hot favourite to win overall – is the Danish entry. Emmelie de Forest’s ‘Only Teardrops’ ticks all of the right boxes for a winning Eurovision entry in the current era. It is theatrical, with a huge finish which will almost certainly involve bigger pyrotechnics and more glitter than we saw last night. It is sung by a young woman who combines the stage presence of a Florence Welch with looking a little like a young Cosette from Les Miserables. At 1.97 to win she is a very short price in this market and although the song is a definite candidate for the win, don’t back her until that price is over 4.0.
Also going through from the semi-final was the Dutch entry, ‘Birds’ by Anouk. It is the first time in nine years that the Netherlands have made it to the final, and it is clear that they have put a real effort into this number, calling upon one of their leading singers and a top songwriting/production team to turn out a song which has a real chance of winning this contest, certainly better than the 36.0 it is currently priced at.
The second semi-final is on Thursday evening, when ten more acts will be chosen to take part in the final. Norway, Georgia and Azerbaijan are strong favourites to qualify, but have a look at San Marino, who are handily priced at 5.6. Valentina Moletta is their representative for the second year running. She just missed out on last year’s final but ‘Chrisalide (Vola)’ is a better song than then and was written by the man who wrote the winning entry in 1982, Nicole’s ‘A Little Peace’.
Recommended Bet
Back Ireland at 3.9 to finish in the top 10
Milesey
PREMIER LEAGUE DARTS – THURSDAY 16TH MAY 2013
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For the players, Premier League Finals night at the O2 Arena is one of the biggest nights of the year.
Remember, the top 10 players get to play on TV every Thursday night while the rest of the professionals are sitting at home and doing nothing. It shows how essential it is to get into the Premier League.
There’s no question we’ve seen the best 10 players in the world taking part this year. Sometimes with the wildcard system you can argue otherwise, but that hasn’t been the case this year.
That’s not to say there hasn’t been some indifferent performances. The biggest disappointment has been Adrian Lewis who hasn’t found any form this year and the same could be said for Gary Anderson. It’s a shame that the two players with the most raw talent in the game have had poor seasons.
But overall it’s been a good Premier League and unlike most TV events I’d say the best four players – Michael van Gerwen, Raymond van Barneveld, Phil Taylor and James Wade – are in the semi-finals.
You’ve got four real contrasting styles; Van Gerwen is the extrovert; Barney is the great who beats himself up; Wade is someone who gets up and focuses on the job in hand; and Taylor just likes to beat the player in front of him.
If you’re going on form you’d be tipping the table-topper Van Gerwen to win on Thursday night. However, a little bit like Wigan in the FA Cup Final, you can forget the form book at this stage.
Some commentators talk about the history between various players, but that means nothing in semi-finals and finals, compared to league matches. If you can step up and get into the game early then anything can happen.
This is the most open Premier League we’ve seen both in the league stage and in the finals and I’m really looking forward to being at the O2 Arena on Thursday night. Here’s a look at the players involved…
Michael van Gerwen
Michael van Gerwen has been the star of the show this year. His passion and love for the game has been brilliant, as has his relationship with the crowd. This is a show – it’s completely different from a regular tournament which is why it isn’t ranked – and the players are asked to react with the crowds on TV. Some players don’t but Michael has done it every single week. He was seven darts into a nine-darter last week and it would have summed up his season if he’d got it. He deserved it because he’s been brilliant this year.
He’s been a superb player since the age of 14, but he didn’t have the winning mentality to finish games off under pressure and he got frustrated with himself because of that. People didn’t used to be scared of him, but he picked up a winning mentality by playing on the Youth Tour. He was winning week in and week out and then he went on the Pro Tour and it worked straight away for him. That increased his confidence in his own ability and that’s why he’s where he is now and it’s nice to hear him praise the Youth Tour whenever he gets the chance. Nowadays he just gets up, throws darts and doesn’t care what his opponent hits. That’s the perfect attitude to have.
James Wade
James has been brilliant at times this season, but pretty average on other occasions. Some weeks he turns up on a high, but in other weeks he’s on a low and that’s the way it is with him. He might be playing the form man in Michael van Gerwen, but write him off at your peril. His performance against Phil Taylor last week in Newcastle was one of the best displays of the Premier League for me. Nobody gave him a chance, we all thought The Power would win comfortably, and Wade needed to get a point to reach the semi-finals. There’s no bigger pressure and yet he managed to take a point off the guv’nor. He was 6-5 down in the last leg and a lot of top players would have bottled it, but James stepped up to the plate and threw a 13-dart leg. It doesn’t get any better than that.
He looked really focused last week and if he goes up with the same attitude and Van Gerwen is off the mark in the first few legs then Wade looks like good value. I’m not saying he will beat him but he’s got decent odds and knows what it takes to win a major. A lot of punters will take the value on him, but I wouldn’t touch that match with any of my money! We have the best four players in the semi-finals and I’m sitting well and truly on the fence. On form you would have to pick Van Gerwen, but I have a sneaky feeling Wade’s display last week will set things up for a very good game.
Raymond van Barneveld
I can’t remember the last time Barney beat Taylor on TV. He has never beaten him in a Premier League match (although they did have a draw a few weeks ago) and he seems to have this thing in his head where he so wants to beat him to prove something (to himself more than anyone else) that sometimes it ties him up. However, Barney has got the game to beat Phil and I expect it to be another great semi-final.
He has been playing really well this year, but we often see him suffer dips of form during the match where he doesn’t score as well. He will need to be careful that Taylor doesn’t punish him on those occasions. It wouldn’t surprise me if this match went either way, but I just think Phil has the edge over him when it comes to the mental side of things.
Phil Taylor
Phil Taylor is not quite as good as he was. He’s changed his darts, his averages are down and I think he may have worked too hard on the road. More importantly, the other players have stepped up to the plate more and aren’t as afraid of him as they used to be. They want his scalp, they attack him more and they take more doubles out under pressure. Just look at Robert Thornton, who beat him three times last year and stepped into the Premier League and did it all over again. That’s why it’s been closer this year and why Phil didn’t top the table.
However, The Power is very good at doing the right things at the right time and he can produce an extraordinary shot at a vital moment. If he can do that early in the semi-final against Barney, and get in front of him, then he’ll have a great chance. People say I always go for Taylor, but I am going for him to edge it and make it into the final. If he does play Van Gerwen in the final it will be hard to call. Over a long distance I’d pick Taylor, but the shorter format brings it into the realm of Van Gerwen. The form book says Van Gerwen should win on Thursday, but you might as well chuck that out of the window when you start talking about semi-finals and finals!
World Youth Championship Final
I must finish by mentioning the Youth Tour Final, which will also be held on Thursday night with Michael Smith taking on Ricky Evans. Smith has been around for a few years now, while Evans has come out of our youth system and has been taking scalps on the Pro Tour. I expect another close game, although maybe Smith is the favourite because of his experience although he has had a bit of back trouble. Evans will get up there and play his own game, he’s very focused and very talented.
We’re going to increase the Youth Tour in future years because there’s so much talent out there. There’s 500% more talent than I expected there to be and I could name 30 players who will be contesting big events in the next five years, possibly even more. We had a cracking World Youth Championship Final between Van Gerwen and James Hubbard last year and I expect more of the same this time. It’ll be a good spectacle.
Raymond van Barneveld v Phil Taylor
Taylor is trading as a strong favourite here which is unsurprising given that Barney hasn’t beaten him on the big stage since 2008. But I fancy the Dutchman to end that run. Why? Well, let me tell you.
For starters, Phil isn’t as good as he was. He’s still the main man, the one who the others see as their biggest threat, but he gets beaten a lot more often these days and the players don’t fear him like they used to. Raymond’s record against Phil in the Premier League is shocking but Barney is playing, in my opinion, the best darts of his career right now. The big man is focused and he’s confident, all the things he hasn’t been in the last five years that’s why I think he’ll beat the Power at a good price. It’s also worth backing Barney to hit most 180s as Phil will switch far more often.
And while that big games stat is not in his favour here’s one that will provide comfort for Barney backers: the Dutchman has beaten Taylor more than any other player.
Recommended Bets
Raymond van Barneveld to win at 2.62
Van Barneveld to hit the most 180s at 1.53
Michael van Gerwen v James Wade
Let’s not beat around the bush here; if Michael plays well he wins. Wade knows how to win scrappy matches, but I just can’t see this being a scrappy affair. MVG WILL score well, that’s what he does and this will mean that James will have to hit his doubles to a 50% ratio at least or rely on Michael missing. Wade is capable of winning anything, we know that, but this is the decade of dominance starting for the Green Machine. Top up the Match odds bet by backing MVG to hit most 180s.
Recommended Bets
Michael van Gerwen to win at 1.28
Van Gerwen to hit the most 180s at 1.4
Milesey
( betfair )
IPL CRICKET – THURSDAY 3:30 ITV4
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Kings XI Punjab vs Delhi Daredevils
Kings XI Punjab
Every time we write Punjab off, they fight back as Bangalore have twice found to their cost in the past few days. After being matched at 890.0 to win the tournament, Adam Gilchrist’s men are back in the hunt and merely double figure odds. They still need a minor miracle, involving winning their two remaining matches and results in another three going their way, just to make the play-offs. Nevertheless, stranger things have happened, Kings XI are on a roll and must be rated strong favourites for today’s match. Most encouragingly, Gilchrist has at last found some form, taking some pressure off their key men Shaun Marsh and David Miller.
Delhi Daredevils
In stark contrast to today’s less fashionable opponents, Delhi have nothing to play for besides a humiliating struggle to avoid finishing bottom and in some players’ cases, a last-ditch attempt to save their contracts. Their demise has been the surprise story of this year’s IPL and big changes must be expected after the post-mortem. The principal problem has been batting, with Tuesday’s 135 the latest in a series of poor totals. Nobody besides David Warner has taken responsibility for the middle-order in the absence of Kevin Pietersen, and this core weakness will make it hard to register a competitive total at this generous ground.
First Innings Runs
We’ve become used to big totals at Mohali, but the last match there saw a change of conditions. The pitch had already been used and was notably slower, producing scores of 150 and 120. Given that both of these sides have been prone to being bowled out cheaply, I’ll be laying 140 plus at around 1.35.
Match odds
If both sides had something to play for, the betting would be much tighter and taking odds of just 1.7 involves the dubious assumption that Punjab’s extra incentive will make the difference. That doesn’t appeal much but then nor does this atrocious Delhi batting line-up. Teams generally need the middle-order to contribute significantly in order to win on this ground, so supremacy on that score makes Punjab a tentative selection.
Top Punjab batsman
Now David Miller hasn’t top-scored for a couple of matches, this emerging superstar is reasonable value again at around 5.5. He’s won this market four times in ten appearances and is bound to be at the crease during the second part of the innings, when runs tend to flow fast here.
Top Delhi batsman
The only Delhi batsman to have consistently performed is David Warner and he is a fair price even at just 4.0. Given Delhi’s habit of collapsing, however, I prefer to look for bigger prices further down their order. Irfan Pathan nearly landed a touch for us when finishing a close second in this market away to Sunrisers, and the all-rounder remains decent value at around 17.0.
Recommended bet
Back Kings XI Punjab @ 1.7
Milesey
The HP Byron Nelson Championship
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Tournament History
First staged in 1944 as the Dallas Open and won by the man that the event is now named after, the HP Byron Nelson Championship has an impressive list of champions. Indeed, Sam Snead and Ben Hogan won the next two stagings, two top quality maiden winners in Jason Day and Keegan Bradley won the 2010 and 2011 renewals, and top-class performer, Jason Dufner, took the title last year.
Venue
TPC Four Seasons Resort, Irving, Texas
Course Details
Par 70 -7,166 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 – 71.09
Designed and built by Robert Trent Jones Jr and opened in 1983, TPC Four Seasons was remodelled in 1986 by Jay Moorrish, Byron Nelson and Ben Crenshaw, and it underwent a major renovation again in 2008 by D,A Weibring. It has tree-lined Bermuda grass fairways and large undulating Bentgrass greens. In benign conditions low scores are perfectly possible and the course record of 61 has been shot four times in total but it’s a different beast altogether when the wind gets up – as it’s forecast to do this year.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky, starting at 8.00pm on Thursday
Last Five Winners
2012 – Jason Dufner -11
2011 – Keegan Bradley -3 (playoff)
2010 – Jason Day -10
2009 – Rory Sabbatini -19
2008 – Adam Scott -7 (playoff)
What will it take to win the HP Byron Nelson?
No clear stat emerges as the most important here. Driving distance is largely irrelevant and most winners need to drive it straight but three of the last five winners, Jason Day, Rory Sabbatini and Adam Scott all ranked outside the top-25 for accuracy off the tee.
Greens in Regulation has been a key stat over the last couple of years but Day ranked 50th for GIR when he won and Sabbatini ranked 39th. Par 4 Performance has been a key stat but that’s hardly surprising on a par 70 course and to add to the confusion, Jason Dufner ranked just 54th for both scrambling and putting last year.
All in all it’s a bit of a murky picture but I’d definitely favour accuracy over power and I’d certainly be looking at excellent wind players, especially this year, as the forecast suggest it will blow fairly hard all week.
Is there an angle-in?
The last two winners here, Jason Dufner and Keegan Bradley, played out a playoff for the 93rd PGA Championship at Atlanta Athletic Club in Georgia, leaderboard here, and that might not be a coincidence. Scott Verplank, Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia, all winners here, finished tied 4th, 7th and tied 12th respectfully and Luke Donald tied 8tt at Atlanta and Kevin Na and D.A Points, who both finished tied 10th all have form here.
Is there an identikit winner?
As you’ll see from the list above, the last five winners have all been top-class players. Rory Sabbatini maybe a bit regressive nowadays but he’s a multiple PGA Tour winner and a real tough nut to crack when on song.
Vastly experienced players tended to win here, but that’s changed of late. Day and Bradley won their first PGA Tour titles here and Dufner had only recently broken his duck, at the Zurich Classic, when he won 12 months ago. So again, nothing stands out.
In-Play Tactics
If you’re going to play in-running then you may need to side with the front-runners. It’s incredibly tough to come from behind and since 2000, every winner, bar Bradley, has been within two at halfway and Dufner had already reached the front after 36 holes last time around.
That said, the wind blew ridiculously hard on day four two years ago, when Bradley won from four back after round three, and if that happens again this year, the up-with-pace plan might go out of the window.
The par 4 16th is the second-easiest hole on the track with the other long hole, the 7th, consistently ranking slightly easier, but other than that, it’s a tough finish once the players reach the 14th tee, so if someone does post a score from off the pace on Sunday, especially if the winds howling, then it will make sense to get them onside.
Market Leaders
With form figures reading 1-5-9, it’s patently obvious that Jason Day plays the track superbly. He did himself proud at the US Masters recently, where he finished third, but he just looks a shade short to me. His win here in 2010 is still his only success on the PGA Tour and although he played very well in-contention at Augusta, I’m not sure I trust him enough to back him as short as 15.5.
Matt Kuchar and last year’s winner, Jason Dufner are next in the list and they too look short enough. Both players aren’t player at their best and the latter named may struggle to defend.
There’s been money for Keegan Bradley, the 2011 winner, and that’s understandable given the weather forecast but again, at just a shade over 20.0, he makes no appeal.
Selections
It’s always well worth taking a look at Betfair‘s Fixed Odds market on a Monday as there’s often a few juicy prices about and this week’s tasty morsel was the 51.0 about recent Houston Open winner, D.A Points. Whether he’s worth backing at his current price of 40.0 is debatable but he has both course and current form and he won’t mind the windy conditions.
Great wind players, Brian Gay and James Huh both look attractively priced and my reasons for backing Matt Every are highlighted in the weekly each way piece.
I’ve also taken a chance on three huge outsiders in James Driscoll, Justin Hicks and Patrick Reed. The first two shot 66 and 67 here on day four two years ago when the wind howled and Reed is just a weakness of mine. The Texan young-gun Monday qualified many times last season and he looks to have a bit a class about him.
Selections:
D.A Points @ 51.0 (Fixed Odds)
Brian Gay @ 130.0
John Huh @ 130.0
Matt Every @ 150.0 (Fixed Odds)
James Driscoll @ 260.0
Justin Hicks @ 390.0
Patrick Reed @ 500.0
Bobby Gates @ 550.0
Milesey
ATP Internazionali BNL d’Italia Betting
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It was one winner from two on Tuesday at the Foro Italico and those who took my advice of laying Nico Almagro at a short price were quids in.
The injury hampered Almagro was a shocking price at 1.22 and I’m quite surprised that he played at all, but play he did and he lost in straight sets to Julien Benneteau, who previously won a match in February in Marseille.
Unfortunately, Lukas Rosol threw in a shocker of a performance on serve and went down to Viktor Troicki despite taking the first set of their encounter on a non-televised court.
Wednesday’s play features Rafa Nadal and Andy Murray and the latter takes on Marcel Granollers in an eminently winnable second round match, but I can’t have Murray at 1.19 on clay.
Anyone taking the Scot at short prices on the dirt does so at their own peril and this could be a potential banana skin for Murray if his performances in Monte-Carlo and Madrid are any benchmark.
He played pretty well in defeat to Tomas Berdych in Madrid, but it’s hard to see him figuring in the shake-up in Rome and I’d side with the Granollers +5.5 games if I were betting in this one.
Nadal takes on one of those flaky characters in Fabio Fognini, who lost from 1.01 in Madrid and this one will be well worth watching if only for Fogna’s antics on court. They’re meeting for the the first time and you would like to think that the Italian would at least want to make this close in front of his home fans.
Capable of sublime brilliance when the mood takes him Fogna could trouble Rafa today, but I wouldn’t trust his highly questionable temperament to do so. The +6.5 games on the handicap appeals in this one at around 1.7.
It’s not the most appealing of line-ups today from a betting perspective, with a whole collection of the most flaky individuals on show in the Eternal City on Wednesday, but I do like the chances of Philipp Kohlschreiber to take down Albert Ramos.
It comes to something when Kohlschreiber is regarded as one of the most mentally stable players on the schedule, but he was impressive in his straight sets win over Milos Raonic and has a fine chance of progressing against lefty Ramos.
The German has won five of his last six against southpaws on clay, with the one defeat coming at the hands of Nadal and Ramos is attempting to reach the third round of a Masters 1000 on clay for the very first time today.
Albert has won just three of his last 20 matches against top-25 ranked opposition such as Kohlschreiber and the German has been in the better form of late, reaching the final in Munich and semi finals in Barcelona on the clay.
I think that 1.75 is a fair reflection of Kohlschreiber’s chances in this one and on what looks a really tricky day of men’s tennis betting he is my pick.
Recommended Bet
Back Kohlschreiber to beat Ramos at 1.75
Milesey
The Madeira Islands Open
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Tournament History
Co-sanctioned with the European Tour, the Madeira Islands Open offers a great opportunity to those plying their trade on the Challenge Tour. Now in its 21st year, the event presents a superb chance to bank some big price money or even to leap on to the European Tour with a win.
Venue
Clube de Golf Santo da Serra, Santo da Serra, Madeira, Portugal
Course Details
Par 72 -6,825 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 – 71.27
Designed by Robert Trent Jnr and opened in 1991, Santo de Serra was the regular venue for this event until it moved to Porto Santo Golfe in 2009. We returned here twelve months ago and we’re back again this time around.
It’s a short, hilly, wind-exposed, cliff-top track, positioned 2,300 feet above sea level where low-scoring is possible in benign conditions (Bradley Dredge shot 60 in round three in 2003) but in windy weather it can be very tricky.
There are some stunning views but due to the terrain, a full TV crew never makes it to the venue and we only ever get highlights if we’re lucky!
TV Coverage
Unfortunately, there won’t be any.
Last Five Winners
2012 – Ricardo Santos – 22
2011 – Michael Hoey -10
2010 – James Morrison -20
2009 – Tano Goya -6
2008 – Alastair Forsyth -15 (playoff)
What will it take to win the Madeira Islands Open?
Driving distance is irrelevant at Santo da Serra and to a certain extent, so is driving accuracy as the fairways are fairly generous. The key to success here is finding the tricky, slopey greens. Greens In Regulation is your key stat to look at and the first two home last year ranked tied 3rd and 2nd for GIR.
Course experience is a huge plus. Prior to Daniel Vancsik’s win here in 2007, seven of the previous eight winners had posted a top-25 finish prior to winning here and although he had no form to speak of, Vancsik had still played the gaff a few times. When Forsyth won twelve months later, the last time it was used until last year, he did so following a pair of top-30 finishes and last year’s champ, Ricardo Santos, was playing the course for the 4th time. I’d think twice about backing anyone making their course debut.
Is there an angle in?
When studying the form for the 2010 Madrid Masters, held at Club de Campo, I noticed that when the course had been last used, for the 2007 Open de Madrid Valle Romano, that the leaderboard was littered with players that had previously played well here. A confounding four of the top 13 had all won the Madeira Islands Open (Daniel Vancsik, Christopher Hanell, Jean Van De Velde, and Santiago Luna), and there were others that had finished high up in ’07 with form at Santo da Serra.
Of how much use such dated form is -is debatable but here are the 2007 and 2010 leaderboards from Club de Campo. I remember the 2007 event very well. Vancsik (who I’d backed) threw it away during round four and it was the first time brand new pro, Rory McIlroy, had properly gotten himself in to contention.
Another venue that may correlate quite well is East London – home of the Africa Open – which is probably why South Africa’s Trevor Fisher Jnr has made the trip.
Is there an identikit winner?
As well as great iron-play, the winners tend to be exceptional wind players. Given its exposed and lofty position, this course can get very windy indeed and experienced, patient players have fared well over the years. Don’t be surprised if some wily old fox you’ve not heard of for ages suddenly springs to life this week.
In-Play Tactics
An awful lot can happen here late on, if enough payers are still in-contention. I didn’t bag the winner last year but, as detailed here, two of my pre-event selections traded at odds-on on day four, without winning. The baton changed numerous times before Santos took command and it’s just the sort of place where you don’t need to do a lot wrong for it to all go pear-shaped. If you have a selection hit the front early on Sunday, air on the side of caution and lay some back would be my advice.
Market Leaders
Defending champ, Ricardo Santos, heads the market and given the quality of the field, rightly so. He’s been in fair form for most of 2013 and he comes here fresh off a top-five finish at the China Open but nobody’s successfully defended this title and favourites don’t have a great record either. He went off at 75.0 last year and I can’t believe he’s value at 60 points lower.
American Peter Uihlein, the 2010 U.S Amateur Champion, is admirably learning his trade on diverse foreign shores on the Challenge Tour with the intension of improving his game before returning home to aim for success on the PGA Tour. He’s some talent and we’ll hear plenty about him in years to come but he looks short enough here on his course debut.
Former winner and third favourite, Robert Jan Derksen looks the best of the short-priced players but neither he or fourth best, the woefully out of form Simon Dyson hold any real appeal.
The only other player trading at less than 40.0 is Andreas Harto, who, as detailed above, was a selection last year at a considerably bigger price. Nobody putted better than the young Dane twelve months ago though and although I’ve backed him a few times already this year, I’ve done so at huge prices at venues where he can bring his length into play and I can’t see any value in him this week.
Selections
Having produced a string of big-priced winners over the years, this is a notoriously tricky event to bet on, so getting too involved before the off wouldn’t be idea my of a good plan but I did manage to find three players to side with before the off…
Simon Wakefield has a decent bank of form here and on his day’s he’s a player of some note. He once traded in single-figures at the Open Championship (2008) and he was the runaway winner of the 2010 European Tour School.
He’s shown bits and pieces of form this year and he has plenty of course form too and he could just be the wily old fox I spoke of earlier. Fingers crossed.
I was hoping that Emilio Grillo would be here this week. It looked like his kind of venue, he’s been in reasonable form, he looked primed for a win and Argentineans have a good record at this event. So in his absence, I’ve backed two previous event winners from Argentina…
Daniel Vancsik absolutely hacked-up here in 2007, winning by fully seven strokes, and according to this article he’s looking forward to returning. I took 151.0 about him in the Betfair Fixed Odds market on Monday.
Tano Goya won the event two year later, but at Porto Santo Golfe and the fact he’s never played here is a big negative. He’s a very big price compared to the High Street though and his performance last time out in China was encouraging.
Selections:
Simon Wakefield @ 110.0
Daniel Vancsik @ 150.0 (Fixed Odds)
Tano Goya @ 150.0
Milesey
Recommended Bets
Back Burnett to beat Cornet @ 2.66
Back Navarro to beat Petrova @ 1.96
Back Stephens to beat Pennetta @ 2.52
Back Robson to beat V. Williams @ 2.46
Back Vesnina to beat Vinci @ 3.00
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Yesterdays results
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Burnett N. (Ita) 2-0 Cornet A. (Fra)
Williams V. (Usa) 0-2 Robson L. (Gbr)
3 matches being played today………………………………
Milesey
ATP – SINGLES: Rome (Italy), clay
Benneteau J. (Fra) 2-0 Almagro N. (Esp)
I put my LAY in at 1.22 ALMAGRO, then went on BET365 and backed BENNETEAU @ 5/1 and SMASHED IT !!
Milesey
tournament winner Selections:
Back to lay Del Potro at 22.0
Back to lay Gasquet at 126.0
Dimitrov G. (Bul) 0-2 Gasquet R. (Fra)
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result
Stephens S. (Usa) 2-0 Pennetta F. (Ita)
Milesey
Petrova N. (Rus) 1-2 Suarez Navarro C. (Esp)
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Recommended Bets
Back Burnett to beat Cornet @ 2.66 ** WIN **
Back Navarro to beat Petrova @ 1.96 ** WIN **
Back Stephens to beat Pennetta @ 2.52 ** WIN **
Back Robson to beat V. Williams @ 2.46 ** WIN **
Back Vesnina to beat Vinci @ 3.00 ** LOST **
4 OUT OF 5 IN THE WOMENS TENNIS :) :)
Milesey
ATP – SINGLES: Rome (Italy), clay
Del Potro J.M. (Arg) 2-0 Kuznetsov A. (Rus)
tournament winner Selections:
Back to lay Del Potro at 22.0
Back to lay Gasquet at 126.0
Milesey
You have such a great record here – you select so many winners! Is there anywhere on this website where all your tips are listed together? Instead of having to trawl through all the comments :)
Very good stuff nonetheless.
Owner occupier now trading around the 5/1 mark,good enough for me