ANYONE wanting a bet tonight will have to trawl the lower leagues in countries such as Holland, France and Germany if they're looking for value.
It's a fairly quiet week all round although there are some npower and SFL matches to look at on Tuesday so it might be better saving your money for then.
The one side that stands out for me is Go Ahead Eagles at home to Excelsior in the Dutch second division but they are just 4-7 at TitanBet. I'm on it anyway and looking at Go Ahead minus one at 6-4 with TitanBet and over 3.5 goals at 11-10.
Contributors to the site have put some interesting tips and analysis from various games and while Cologne are being backed at Dynamo Dresden I'm simply going with under 2.5 goals and doubling it with under 2.5 at Paulo Sergio's Cluj v Rapid Bucharest.
The Bundesliga 2 clash looks a tight one that could be edged by Cologne while the Romanian game sees two struggling, low-scoring sides meet up.
Milesey and others have posted some good info and stats on this thread so make sure you have a look before deciding to bet.
Super Single
Go Ahead Eagles -1
(6-4, Titanbet)
Double Up
Under 2.5 goals at Dresden and Cluj
Pays a best £27.10 to a £10 stake at William Hill
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
A bet that catches my eye tonight, its from the lowly Blue Square North. Odds look quite generous to me based on recent form.
GAINSBOROUGH to be Worcester @ 6/4
Worcester lost their last 5 games & only won once in their last 10 matches. Scoring just 8 goals and failing to score five times in this period.
GAINSBOROUGH on the other hand have won 6 of their last 10 games, and have good away form with 7 wins from their last 10 away games.
Might double it up with over 3.5 goals @ Evs in the GA Eagles v Excelsior game you mentioned. Double pays £49 to a £10 stake
MONDAY FOOTBALL TIPS
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Arsenal de Sarandí v San Martín de San Juan – 22:10
How Arsenal manager Gustavo Alfaro hasn’t been nicked by a bigger club is an absolute mystery, especially given the high quantity of hirings and firings in Argentina meaning there’s usually a vacancy or two.
In two years at the club he has taken them from lower-mid table nobodies to winning the national title and this week beating one of the tournament favourites, Sao Paulo, in the Copa Libertadores.
Having built on the success of 2012 with some smart signings, Alfaro is aware that he is likely to lose star man Lisandro Lopez to the bright lights of Europe come June and that things are likely to take a bit of a downward turn.
Yet they survived losing Guillermo Burdisso to Boca quite well, and Lisandro’s fee is likely to be a record sum received by the Viaducto.
San Martín were atrocious last season and are currently on a run of no wins in fifteen games. That things haven’t improved is little surprise, with this Western outpost a tough place to attract players to, especially with the centralised nature of Argieball.
They play a good side on Monday night, and suitably rested from their heroics in midweek, Arsenal should triumph over one of the division’s pooorer sides.
Recommended bet: Back Arsenal at 1.78
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GREECE: Super League
Panthrakikos FC v Xanthi
Under 2.5 Goals
—————————————–
In Germany’s Bundesliga 2 there have been Under 2.5 Goals in 6/10 Dynamo Dresden home games and 7/7 FC Koln away matches.
Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 in Dynamo Dresden v FC Koln
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Next Reading Manager Betting:
A week on from the sacking of Brian McDermott and there’s not yet a clear favourite in the market to succeed him – never mind an appointment. Ralph Ellis warns the club will suffer from its owner’s lack of a clear vision.
The Cass Business School is part of the City University in London. According to its website it is “the intellectual heart of business.” It boasts that it teaches academic excellence and forward thinking research.
Among the people to have studied there is Reading’s Russian owner Anton Zingarevich. We can only presume he had a bad cold and was at home in bed the day they did the “forward thinking research” lessons. Frankly it is impossible otherwise to know why Eamonn Dolan was in charge of the Royals in their 1-0 defeat at Manchester United on Saturday, and may yet still be the caretaker when Reading play at Arsenal in two weeks time.
That is nothing against Dolan, who is a fine Academy manager for the club, and may yet become a fantastic first team manager either there or somewhere else. The point is that if he is the right man for the future he should already be in charge – and if he is not then somebody else should have taken over the day after Brian McDermott was shown the door.
Reading’s club statement on the day they dispensed with McDermott after more than 12 years of loyal service made it very clear that Zingarevich was behind the decision. “In our current situation the owner, Anton Zingarevich, felt that a change was necessary,” it said.
Paolo Di Canio had been snapped on somebody’s phone watching the weekend defeat by Aston Villa, the picture found its way very quickly on to Twitter, and everybody sat back and assumed that he would be taking over. On Betfair‘s market to be the next Reading manager he was matched as low as 1.8.
A week on Di Canio is now priced anywhere between 10.5 and 26.0, Nigel Adkins is the nearest to a favourite at 3.9, and there’s no sign of anybody taking charge. It’s obvious now that while Zingarevich felt a change was necessary, he didn’t have a clue what that change should be. As Wolves discovered a year ago, sacking the manager is the easy bit – finding the right man to take over is a whole deal more challenging.
This season both Queens Park Rangers and Southampton have dispensed with their head coach because of bad results. You can debate those decisions, but in each case the owners had already investigated the options and decided what was happening next. You could call it “forward thinking research,” I suppose.
At Loftus Road Tony Fernandes had Harry Redknapp in his sights; at St Mary’s Nicola Cortese knew he wanted Mauricio Pochettino. Either decision might have been right or wrong, but both had been prepared in advance.
It wasn’t as if Reading’s directors couldn’t have foreseen the need for change. From the moment they got promoted they were always going to be fighting to survive their first season in the top flight, and that would mean, at some time, that the manager’s position would be questioned. Surely any good chairman would constantly review the options if he had to make a change?
Would he want to replace the quiet, thoughtful and methodical style of McDermott with a firebrand like Di Canio? Would he take another equally studious coach like Adkins? Would he look abroad for experience and pay fortunes to prise somebody like Dick Advocaat away from PSV Eindhoven? Would he prefer somebody like Roberto Di Matteo who proved his ability to take over in a crisis by winning the European Cup? He should have already known the answer.
Instead it seems like none of that homework happened. Reading have lurched through another game that has come and gone and are now 1.6 favourites to finish rock bottom, in addition to being 1.09 certainties for relegation.
Reading is now Zingarevich’s business and the 30-year-old should have been providing its “intellectual heart”. Instead he’s reacted to a bad defeat with all the logic of an angry fan on a phone-in and made a bad situation even worse.
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Back Sunderland for drop as they sink further towards the abyss
Despite referee Chris Foy’s best efforts, Sunderland were unable to secure a home win against an average side down to ten men for an hour yesterday and at times even looked lucky to escape with a point. Norwich were the team that showed more ingenuity, more thought and more urgency going forward, with a listless Sunderland looking bereft of ideas and confidence both of which are worrying signs ahead of what is now a relegation battle for the Black Cats.
In truth, Sunderland have been largely dreadful for a while now. A big defeat at QPR was preceded by a scrambling point after being 0-2 down at home to Fulham and that was preceded by an entire month without a point being added to the tally. Martin O’Neill’s side have now won just one of their last eight league games and none of their last six.
That last fact is perhaps the most worrying for Sunderland fans given that momentum is of paramount performance as we enter the last act of a dramatic season. Yes they’re currently four points off Wigan in 18th, but Wigan have won two of their last three and have a game in hand. Seasoned watchers of the Premier League will know that being bottom of the form table at the end of March is not conducive to a dramatic end-of-season turnaround.
The lack of ideas shown against Norwich was truly concerning. It’s fair to suggest that ten men can be difficult to break down, but the Canaries didn’t shut up shop and play for the draw. They didn’t need to. Sunderland’s play was predictable, lateral and narrow. Norwich were able to get forward and carve out opportunities of their own. If Grant Holt’s touch had been better after he was able to take advantage of Titus Bramble’s error they would have won the game.
The Black Cats look woefully short of quality. Adam Johnson has shown nothing of the promise he hinted at in his early years as a pro, Steven Fletcher has scored three goals since December and marquee January signing Danny Graham has failed to find the net in his six appearances for the club. The fact that Titus Bramble featured at all yesterday tells its own story about how short of quality Sunderland actually are.
It gets worse for the Mackems, too. The next three fixtures involve a home game against champions-elect Manchester United (last six matches – played six, won six, scored 12, conceded one), a trip to Stamford Bridge and then a derby game against a dangerous Newcastle team, rejuvenated by the addition of new personnel. True, two seasons ago Sunderland secured a famous 0-3 win at Chelsea and that will hold some hope for supporters, but they’ll also be acutely aware that the season before that they were on the end of a 7-2 hammering. Stamford Bridge may be chaotic behind the scenes this season, but it has not been a happy hunting ground for Sunderland over the last ten years.
The odds on the red and white side of the north east being relegated have been slashed from 11.0 a couple of weeks ago to just 4.9 today. Expect that to shorten further after their next three games. Sunderland have a fight on their hands, and at the moment there’s nothing to suggest they’ve got what it takes to survive.
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Milesey ( BETFAIR )
We’re off to Germany for our first pick of the week – and focusing on the second tier, as Dynamo Dresden host 1.FC Koln at the Glucksgas Stadion.
The hosts go into this game having won just two of their last five, and will be desperate to build some consistency with the end of the campaign in sight.
Peter Pacult’s side currently sit at the wrong end of the table, in 16th place, and a win would move them out of the dangerzone – and a 1-0 defeat of leaders Hertha BSC at the beginning of the month will have given the home side confidence – but they failed to build on that three points, losing 1-0 to Erzgebirge Aue last time out.
Just one clean sheet from their last five games suggests that Dresden are likely to present their visitors with some chances, and, with Koln in lethal form of late, that could be a key factor in this game.
Pacult will be without Savic, Papadopoulos and Guedea, and they will be big misses to his side in this game – with both sides desperate for the points.
The away side sit fourth in the table, and will be keen to secure maximum points here in order to heap pressure on third placed Kaiserslautern – who are just four points ahead, having played a game more.
Holger Stanislawski’s charges go into this one unbeaten in the league since November – and that consistency has played a huge part in their rise up the division.
And the Cologne side have not lost in six outings on the road – keeping four clean sheets in that time, which indicates that they are more than comfortable keeping things tight away from the RheinEnergieStadion.
A 3-0 defeat of Paderborn last time out will have boosted confidence in the away camp, and I think that they will have too much for their hosts in this clash.
Bet 1: 1.FC Koln (AWAY) @ 2.32
Over to Romania now, as CFR Cluj line up against Rapid Bucuresti, with both sides looking for improvement following underwhelming campaigns.
Cluj sit seventh in Liga I ahead of this clash, and have not won in five outings – scoring just one goal in that most recent seven and a half hours of football.
Boss Paulo Sergio has seen his side win four, draw three and lose three at the Dr Constantin Radulescu Stadium, and that inconsistency threatens to seriously derail their season.
And the home side are without key players Panteli Kapetanos and Ricardo Cadu ahead of this derby, who will be major absentees for the Transylvanians.
Visitors Rapid Bucuresti sit one place behind their hosts, in eighth place, and will be desperate to close a four point margin with a win here.
Marian Rada’s side have lost just one of their last five on the road, and three clean sheets in that time shows just how comfortable the away side have looked of late.
Rapid have won four of their last five against Cluj – and will be keen to maintain that positive record here – at cracking odds of 5.7. I expect a tight and balanced game, despite the odds suggesting otherwise.
Bet 2: Rapid Bucuresti (AWAY) @ 5.7
HOME and AWAY DOUBLE
———————
Bet 1: 1.FC Koln (AWAY) @ 2.32
Bet 2: Rapid Bucuresti (AWAY) @ 5.7
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Milesey, have seen a few people tipping up Cologne but are Rapid Bucharest not a bit risky. Both them and Cluj look poot at the moment though.
It’s one where you pick a team and have a punt, and at 5.7 makes more sense to me then going with the short price on the home team. I’ll be doing the singles and the Double for these games, and if the games go in my favour can always get out of the bet early, so be one i’ll be playing inplay on both games.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Dynamo Dresden v FC Koln
Mon 18 Mar 7:15PM
0-1 8.4
0-2 12.5
Worth a hundred on each in my eyes.
AND……………
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 in Dynamo Dresden v FC Koln
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LAY OF THE DAY
—————
Dijon and Nantes meet tonight in France’s Ligue Two and while the Betfair market is cautious about the chances of there being goals, Paul Robinson thinks we could be in for at least three.
Dijon are seventh in the table after 28 games played and that must be considered a slight disappointment for a club who were relegated from the top flight last year. They are now eight points off the promotion places – although they do have a game in hand – and that’s largely thanks to the fact that they’ve picked up just three points from a possible 12 recently.
While Olivier Dall’Oglio’s team only lost one of those games, three draws in a row isn’t good enough, especially the two against Niort and Clermont who are both battling relegation. It’s goals that we’re more interested in here though and Dijon’s matches have been averaging dead on 2.5 goals this term, with 13 of their 28 having had three or more, including three of their last five at home.
Nantes are flying this season and they find themselves in second place, just four points behind leaders Monaco with a game in hand. They are the third top scorers in the division and have the joint best defensive record so it’s easy to see why they’re doing so well. They come into this match on the back of three successive victories and with Monaco dropping points again on Friday, their incentive to win has got even bigger.
As far as the goals go, five of their last seven have gone over 2.5, with their last three scorelines on the road reading 0-3, 2-1, 1-2. Michel Der Zakarian’s team may only have had 11 of their 28 fixtures go over this season, but as you can see, that is becoming a much more common trend in recent weeks.
Both of these two sides have huge motivation to win this game so I’m hopeful that they won’t settle for a draw, especially if the scores are tied going into the final 20 minutes as happens in many French matches. I’d argue that the recent stats show that there could be goals in this game, so with under 2.5 trading as low as 1.68 I have to make it my lay of the day.
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Dijon v Nantes @ 1.68
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Milesey, funny I’d just decided to put up a double on under 2.5 at Dresden and Cluj. All four sides look like they’re struggling to score.
Make it a nice treble and add Dijon V Nantes over 2.5 goals ;) ;)
Milesey
Milesey, French games I hate. Maybe add over 2.5 or over 3.5 at Go Ahead Eagles. Anyone looked at Shamrock Rovers at Bohemians?
Metalist Kharkiv v Hoverla Uzhhorod
I had alook at this game and maybe going over 3.5 goals @ 2.6.
Milesey
cant beleive ive had a bet on another french game tonight after psg,how many times have french games let me down this year.lines for tonight
gainsborough win
pantrakikos under 2.5
dynamo btts
djon btts
line 2
cruisaders btts
cfr cluj btts
chelmsford btts
worcester btts
pantrakikos btts
line 3
crusaiders
djion
dresden
all to draw 1-1 3 doubles and a treble
whats the bets djion let me down.
HOME and AWAY DOUBLE
———————
Bet 1: 1.FC Koln (AWAY) @ 2.32 * WIN *
Bet 2: Rapid Bucuresti (AWAY) @ 5.7
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GREECE: Super League
Panthrakikos FC v Xanthi
Under 2.5 Goals * WIN *
—————————————–
In Germany’s Bundesliga 2 there have been Under 2.5 Goals in 6/10 Dynamo Dresden home games and 7/7 FC Koln away matches.
Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 in Dynamo Dresden v FC Koln * WIN *
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Dynamo Dresden v FC Koln
Mon 18 Mar 7:15PM
0-1 8.4 * LOST *
0-2 12.5 * WIN *
—————————————-
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Dijon v Nantes @ 1.68 * WIN *
—————————————-
Arsenal de Sarandí v San Martín de San Juan – 22:10
Recommended bet: Back Arsenal at 1.78
——————————————
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Milesey, good night for you so far on not a great card.
Good night all round by the looks of things!
Time to look at tomorrows card to see if anything stands out
mr fiztips i really appretiate ur good work thanks
AL I lived in Gainsborough for 8 months last year and they are a decent outfit who lost out in a playoff final last year. I’d expect them too come away with at least a point from tonight’s game at a poor Worcester side and double them up with Mr F’s pick Go Ahead Eagles
Went for a single on GAINSBOROUGH @ 6/4 & doubled it up with over 3.5 goals in the GO AHEAD EAGLES V EXCELSIOR game @ evs. Double pays 4/1
Tom Tomsk and Rotor Volvograd are worth a look in the Russian leagues. League lesders Tomsk have have lost just twice all season and are undefeated at home winning 8 and drawing 3 from 11
Tomsk,Volgograd and Go Ahead Eagles pays 2.54/1 with Skybet
DENMARK.
AL, thanks for the Gainsborough tip.
3 out of 3 yesterday and a 11.27% profit on my €500.00 bankroll for this Danish series after 13 games. The profit are 17.39% higher than if I had placed my bets at level stakes.
Just spend 30 minutes looking at tonights game and deciding to go Sonderjyske +0.25 and under 2.5 goals … just to see the game cancelled.
The Dane, well done yesterday. just my luck i was away doing the Alloa half marathon yesterday and could not get near a computer to place a bet
interesting stats as regards the level stakes
robert miller, thanks. Half marathon this time of year?!
I’m actually ahead of schedule re return so the differents between staking plan and level stake betting should have been (and will be in the long run) bigger.
The Dane.
Robert, you wimp. Why didn’t you do the whole race?
i,m gettin slow in me auld age Paul!!!!! done 5 ultra distance events last year the longest being the Glasgow to Edinburgh canal path race of 56 miles
Robert, that’s impressive. I might try that canal path next week – when my new 4×4 arrives!
Xanthi won the last 3 away games, floating around at 3/1 this morning for the game this evening. Panthrakikos, the Team they are playing have only won 1 game in 8.
FC Koln is another team that is at a decent price, 11/10 for them to win this evening. Unbeaten in 13 games. Playing a team 3rd from bottom in the league.
3/1 for Xanthi to win.
11/10 for Koln to win.
7/1 for the double. Seems a very good price for two teams that should win based on the form guides.
Andy, I’m familar with the Cologne run, I’ll have a wee look at that one.
Andy did the same but didnt want to jinks it by puting my bet up as every time i do it seems to loose. Been on a bit of a loosing run lately so this bolsters the coffers a bit
Not much on today due too internationals but had a look through and here’s what I’ve came up with
Worcester v Gainsborough Blue Square North
Worcester lye in 13th place against the 7th place team Gainsborough. Worcester have lost 6 in a row failing too score in the last 4 and have just 4 wins in the last 20 of which 3 where against teams near the foot of the table.Worcester have won just 1 in their last 11 on home soil. On the other hand Gainsborough are a team that performs better on the road with their counter attacking style of play. They have won 4 and lost 2 from last 6 on the road and those 2 losses came against Chester and Halifax who occupy 1st and 4th in the table.
AWAY WIN 11/8
Go Ahead Eagles v Excelsior Dutch Jupiler
The home side are in 7th place in the league and have lost just once at home in the league which sees then sit just outside the playoffs with a realistic chance of a good finish and a shot at promotion. Excelsior lye in 16th place with just 4 wins all season,all of which came on home turf. The Eagles have twice as many points so far and I fully expect them too ease too victory here today against a team with just 3 points on the road.
HOME WIN 6/10
Dynamo Dresden v FC Koln German 2nd tier
16th place Dresden entertain high flying Koln today in a 2nd tier German league match. The home side have been poor all season and have just 3 wins in the last 17 league game of which they failed too score in 9 of those. They are in the relegation playoff position and just 6 points from the foot of the table. Koln are in 4th place and victory here today will see them close the gap on 3rd place Kaiserlauten who are in ghe promotion playoff place too just 1 point. They too their success this season has been a tight back line who have conceded just 6 in their last 12 and only 23 all season. They have lost just 1 in the last 19. The downside 2 their game is they don’t score as many as they should but they should nick a low scoring away win today too help in their push for promotion.
AWAY WIN 23/20
FC Brasov v Uni Cluj Romania
9th place Brasov entertain 14th Uni Cluj. The Romanian league is definitely a league for home victories and poor away records. 5 teams in this league have lost just once or less in over 10 home games apiece and only the runaway leaded Steau have a better than 50% strike record on the road. Brasov have W7 D1 L3 at home scoring 20 and conceding 13 and are on a run of 3 consecutive home wins but only 1 win on the road. Cluj have a terrible away review of W1 D3 L6 from 10,scoring just 8 times and conceding 22. They have lost 4 of the last 5 on the road and drew the other, scoring 1 conceding 8.
HOME WIN 1/2
Tom Tomsk v Neftekhimik Russian SUPRA
League leaders Tomsk entertain 4th place Nefte with a strong home record of 8 wins and 3 draws from 11, they have scored 23 and conceded 11 in these matches and come into this game with a 14 point advantage over their rivals. They have Ron 8 of the last 10 while drawing 1 and losing 1. Nefte have played 11 on the road and have won just 4 times while drawing 3 and losing 4 conceding 15 and finding the night just 12 times.
HOME WIN 4/9
Rotor Volgograd v Shinnik Yaro Russian SUPRA
Rotor are in 5th place and a victory today against a poor away side in Shinnik will lift them into the play off positions. Rotor have played 11 at home winning 8 and losing 3, having scored 15 and conceding just 8 times. They have won 4 consecutively at home and should make that 5 today with a bit too spare. Shinnik are awful on their travels having played 12 and winning just once, they have drawn 3 lost 8 while only finding the net 9 times. They find themselves just 4 points outside the relegation places and need 2 start picking up points soon but I can’t see it starting here today with a blunt attack meeting a mean defence.
HOME WIN 8/13
Mr H, as I said earlier Go Ahead were the ones that stood out for me. I’ll looking at posting a double, possibly with the other Cluj at home to Rapid Bucharest but still having a trawl.
paul ive still not heard from admin about bet365 free £10 bet horse racing comp from 8/2, can I get the email address to send username??
also will the prizes for tipster comp all be gettin sent out at the end? Cheers
Craig, good to hear from you again. Passed through Bathgate the other day and was thinking about you. Nearly got off the train and launched a search party. Admin have all the free bets in hand, as we’ve said the bet365 ones can take up six weeks if you just the miss the cut-off date. I’ll get them to email re the tipster contest prize.
Still ragin at PSG costing me £1020 last nite but doing a Treble today :-
Koln @ 23/20
Xanthi @ 10/3
Gainsborough @ 6/5
£35 returns £720
i share your pain mate,psg done me for just over £800 was gutted.when they went 2-0 up i was going to lay the draw and st ettiene as well.but i thought no psg wont lose 2 goals,this betting game kicks you right where it hurts.
your bet looking good m8
Go ahead eagles n100pd single
Tom Tomsk 3-1 up after 35mins :) promising start 2 the day after Spurs and Barca (win both halves 8/13) burst me yesterday
Tom Tomsk 4/5 2 win 2nd half and its 3-1 HT ;) get on it
hard to tell Paul with it only 2 games into the season one thing I do know but Bohemians got the better of Shamrock last season
Had a look earlier Paul and had a small fancy for a Shamrock Rovers team who had the best away record in the league last season winning more points on the road (27) than at home (25) but Bohemians have won the last 2 on the H2H 1-0 away and 4-0 at home. Rovers finished 16 points in front of them
Watching sky sports news and they were quoting Messi league stats this season….. 28 league games and scored in 24 of them with a total of 42 goals… Wonder what it feels like too be so good lol
Bohs v Shamrock Rovers is a Dublin derby, not sure how the league is going so far but i’d say there’ll be a few goals today and possibly a few bookings
Think I’ll leave the Bohemians game alone. Shamrock look pretty short.
4-3 Tomsk … Squeaky bum time as per
And now down too 10 men :( twats lol
Thought I post this link if its ok, Couple good tips to pass on
http://www.tvbet.co.uk/singles-bar-selections-monday-18th-march-non-league-gem-found-tonight/
Took his advice yesturday and made nice profit, so will follow his tips tonight on a quiet night betting for me.
Good luck if your having a bet
They must have seen my tips on these last night! ha
haha wrote in last night saying ended up goin to ma pals house in whitburn for man u chelsea 2nd half and never stopped drinking til early doors Saturday where it aw caught up wi me haha. no be drinkin in nxt wee while anyway haha a disgusting state to get ursel in no getting into pubs at 11 in the mornin. famous last words ‘I’m aff it’ :)
I stayed in Shotts for 10yrs Craig, spent many a Sunday morning spewing at the side of the parks in Whitburn,Bathgate etc in the Sunday leagues with the Thistle
haha a wee pick me up before the game widve sorted u out :). shotts only bout 10 mile or suhin past whitburn eh, couldn’t even mind whitburn on monday and next hing a know its Thursday, that mad dogs got alot tae answer for 9 empty bottles md plus 6 3litre bombs were in ma house and was a struggle tae get it out and there was only 2 of us. lost charger left wallet in whitburn and lost 3 days sumwhere haha
4-3 Tomsk :) good start too the day
Aye it’s not that far away mate. MD? get yersel away from that sissy beverage and switch 2 the monks juice :) or wreck the hoose juice as its better known and you will lose a few weeks never mind days haha
What about Roberto Martinez saying his player McManamans challenge on the Newcastle defender Haidara was just a striker trying too win the ball over enthusiastically? Have a word Roberto, the tackle was a disgrace and if the FA had any balls they would ban you for the rest of the season like the French FA did with Nice’s Valentin Eysseric after his atrocious challenge on St Ettienes ex Rangers midfielder Jeremy Clement. This would send out a message too all those players who jeopardise opponents careers with such tackles that it won’t be tolerated
Mr h get a grip. It was a very bad tackle but if you start banning guys for mths cause a a bad timed tackle then you can forget about football. You have to have players with passionto win or you wont win a thing. Give hime a 3 game ban and move on!
haha defo wreck the hoos juice :) canny drink that anymare, went throu a spell wen thats aw a drank a few yr back but end up gettin lifted for daft hings amd no worrh the hassle, was sticking tae beers so dinny end up in a nick but md goes down to easy and ur on ur 3rd bottle before u know it
A badly times tackle? Wind yer neck in mate,studs up with a straight leg into the knee/thigh is anything but mistimed tackle. If that’s your idea of a badly timed challenge I suppose you think Tyson was whispering sweet nothing’s into Holyfields ear
Mr H, it was a hoorendous tackle and he shouldn’t be diving in recklessly like that. But I’m pretty sure he didn’t mean to hurt the lad. He’ll be banned but don’t crucify the boy for one bad tackle. Hopefully he’ll learn from his mistake. But how the ref missed it I’ll never know.
Mr F I don’t even think the ref booked him for the deliberate handball just after it. If he didn’t mean too hurt the lad then why make such a challenge? In my opinion if you make a challenge like that your not playing the ball and endangering the opposition players safety. Di Canio got an 11 game ban for a petty push on a ref and McManamsn will get 3 games for a tackle that verged on assault. which is worse?
Mr H, I don’t think it was pre-meditated but it was an awful tackle.
It surely warrants more than the normal 3 game ban they are quoting though. Resembles Simpsons challenge on Durrant all those years ago and he was never the same player after that
Fave Whelan just stated that it was a fair challenge? Do they drug test chairmen
Dave not fave lol. ‘ the ball was 15″ off the ground’ then why did he hit him above the knee if the ball was only 15″ from the ground?
Mr H, I think you’ve made your point now. At the end of the day it’s a horror tackle and the boy will pay for it whatever comments are being made by his club who are bound to be supportive.
Volgograd at Evens if anyone is having an in play bet, sounds a bit risky to me
In other words shut up is what you mean? I won’t apologise for having an opinion whether you or anyone else agrees or not. End of subject from me
Mr H, no I didn’t tell you to shut up and that’s unfair to suggest it. I just said you’ve made your point several times and not many disagree with you. But it’s a tipping site and I don’t want it to be dominated by one player’s bad tackle. If there are bets on how long he’ll be banned fair enough, let’s talk about that. I’m off to the office shortly and will see if anyone’s sent any out.
I’ll take 6 games ;) ;)
——————————-
Wigan’s Callum McManaman is expected to be banned for at least three matches for his challenge on Newcastle defender Massadio Haidara.
The Football Association is set to take retrospective action on Monday afternoon following the controversy in the Magpies’ 2-1 loss to Wigan.
Referee Mark Halsey did not see the incident, paving the way for the FA’s governance department to step in.
Haidara has suspected knee ligament damage after the studs-up challenge.
Milesey, it’s gettig quite near to a decision being made then but did you see any prices on the length of the ban?
Mr f. Why does the fa have the right to ban him big time. But they dont have the right to give hibs the goal that was scored last wk! I know its different leagues but surely its the same principal!
Alex, it’s totally different. Banning the player doesn’t change the result of a game. You can’t alter a score because a ref missed something, it’s just not practical.
i think am going for
brasov draw
xanthi 1st half draw
dresden 2-3 goal to be score in 90 mins
If you start that then where would it end Alex. Handballs,offside goals,inside or outside the box decisions. That’s for a 3rd eye or goal line technology which we hear isn’t affordable
But thats what am asking! Where do you draw the line! Bet they make a issue of this tackle and really hammer him! Plus he is not a big time player! So he has no chance!
the Newcastle player dived :)
Craig are you from Bathgate?
You draw the line at game changing decisions….penalties,goal line calls etc but retrospective punishments for violent conduct don’t fall into that catogery as the decision is always made after the match anyway. You could argue about whether it could be used for the red card side of the challenge but its more the punishment for the offence that’s up for debate unless your Dave Whelan who reckons it was a fair challenge lol
Well scotland are going to have to wait a long time for changes as we dont have the cash to put it in place! So we can kick lumps out of each other for yrs and get away with it!
from linlithgow stevie but bn staying up here for about the last 7 years or so
No Alex, Scotland won’t get goal line technology but we still use video evidence too hand out punishment for incidents not seen by the officials. Your confusing 2 different issues here
I’m going to have a go at either Linfield +1 8/13 or Linfield with draw no bet at 11/10. It’s live on Sky tonight.
The Linfield boss is unbelievably under pressure after a rare trophyless season at Windsor Park. I say ‘unbelievably’ as he is the same manager that has won 6 league and cup doubles for the Blues in 7 seasons. He is a very proud man and with the game live on the telly, against a Belfast rival, he should be able to rally the troops for this one.
Many consider this Linfield squad to still be the best in the league and with a hurting, under pressure manager at the helm I think we’ll see a big performance from them tonight.
I’ll be backing them with the draw taken out of the equation, one way or the other.
The Chief .. was reading ur post there on the link u left for “Tv bet”, I was gna sign up to it, as his knowledge cld come in handy (hopefully? ) lol
But b4 I do this, is it a free subscription?
This Metalist game seems pretty rubbish after all the recent results, it’s like teams decide to hide the ball when i put a bet on lately :-)
John, that’s brilliant. You might not make me money but you make me laugh.
ah yeah right next to bgate Craig..ive lived there for 32yrs but the gfriend stays in Cambuslang so may be time to move west :-)
Xanthi 1 up at HT.
only bet tonight linfield crusaders over 2.5 goals 13/20 betfair..might double this up with mr fix its go ahead eagles -1..that over 2.5 should come in
Xanthi 2 up now, hope they hold on and don’t throw the game away. Got them doubled with Gainsborough draw no bet.
Rosario Central 19/20 n Koln 23/20 the nite..singles/double
Go Ahead Eagles 2-0 up, 2nd was a pen. Could easy have scored 2-3 goals in the last 10 mins since I started watching on bet365’s live stream
AL, looking good. Come on the Go Aheads.
4-1 now, easy money on the over 3.5! Gainsborough 1-0 up with 40 mins gone. Double it looking good, could be a decent night!
Your -1 on Go Ahead Eagles looks a cert now aswell!
Al, happy with that and Dresden hopefully looking an under 2.5 game as well.
Just noticed that, looking good 0-0 after an hour & Cluj 0-0 at half time
Gainsborough now 2-0 up at half time
Disaster, lumped a nifty on GHA -3 when they went 3-0 up and excelsior score within 5mins. Anything I tip you would do well too avoid lol
Mr F was trawling through tinternet and came acros your Masterclass section you did a while back and i was thinking maybe these sort of threads should all be in one place where you can instantly click them and get the info in a seperate page on the home page or summun ?
1plus2, now and again we move them up but to be honest site has got so busy that I’ll sit down and discuss these kind of things with admin. Also the comments situation and the likelihood of turning in into a forum. Also planning to ask people what kind of markets, bets, contests, etc they want to see.
Bury 2.54 v Stevenage Borough 3.10, the draw 3.40
Bury look far too short for Tuesday’s match here considering their recent record of one win in their last eight. On the plus side the Shakers were much better on Saturday against Colchester – creating lots of chances but losing 2-1. Manager Kevin Blackwell got booed off, which raises the question what exactly do the Bury fans think should be happening?
Blackwell has no money and a squad so bare that ‘Old Mother Hubbard’ would be pretty disappointed. They
could welcome back veteran Efe Sodje and Nicky Ajose, and the latter’s presence in front of goal will be a big boost.
The Shakers have the worst home attack in League One, whilst Opta highlight their fragile nature at the back – conceding 36 goals in the second-half of matches this season (joint-highest in the division).
Stevenage are the intriguing ones at the price. Saturday’s 4-0 win over Sheffield United would make them far shorter than the 3.10 on offer this Tuesday. However, they are really inconsistent and their form has been dipping, along with their impotence in front of goal.
However that all changed with Dani Lopez on Saturday. The 22-year-old bagged a really classy hat-trick in that 4-0 win with some high calibre finishes. The Spaniard looks just the player Borough have been lacking recently, and I fancy him against a poor Bury backline.
Lopez was playing for Barnet on-loan the week before, and he hit a hat-trick there too. Let’s all root for D-Lo.
Recommended bet:
Lay Bury @ 2.56
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Gainsborough 2-0 at Ht great tip Al. On that aswell as Paul’s -1 Eagles and Milesys FC Coln could be a good night. Great night if Coln can nick it!
Hi there. Nrw to this. Took your bet of go ahead eagles -1 and gainsborough double, £1 singles £3 double. Was wondering though what -1 means?
Matchloz, it means Go Ahead have to win by at least two goals so for example 4-1 is 4-2. Hence the bigger price.
-1 means you take 1 goal off the team you selected.
So in effect Go Ahead Eagles won 3-1 on that bet so your bet came in.
Had the full time score been 2-1 Go Ahead Eagles, then you would have lost the bet as with the -1 the score would be 1-1
Get in cologne :) nice double with Gainsborough if they both hold out
c,mon dresden a wee goal
-1 means the other teams with a goal lead, ps super tips tonight mr f
Gareth, it’s a good night if the Dresden and Cluj games stay under 2.5 goals. Not much that caught my eye tonight except Go Ahead but did a bit of digging and hopefully will come up trumps.
Matchloz it means the team u bet on basically start 1-0 down so have to win by 2 goals or more. Don’t worry this ones in by far :)
Oh ok. Thanks. Hows it looking so far
Matchloz, everything I tipped tonight is up at the moment. Go Ahead finished 4-1, Cologne 1-0 with about 10 to go and Cluj still 0-0 with about 20 to go.
COLOGNE !!!
No James haha most are on Koln :)
Lookin like a nice wee away win for koln 1 up
2-0 Koln :) get in. Just Arsenal S tonight for a 4 timer if Gainsborough can keep their 2 goal lead
2-0 game over! Might lump on Arsenal Sarandi later. What’s people’s thoughts Milesy persuaded me earlier when he tipped then but fancied the 7-8 Ko to start with?
3-0 crusaders happy days..thanks for the go ahead eagles tip mr f
Mr fix it. U sound pretty damn good at this. U must be a very rich man. Any tips on the lotto ha ha. I bet with bet fred and sky bet. Do u ever show there odds? Also im a swindon fan and think they are good away from home, expect a hard game with yeovil but think swindon should win this
Matchloz, sometimes I’m good, sometimes I’m bad. I go mainly on form, stats and past meetings but there are so many matches that are tough to call and there are of course a lot of shock results. Will look at tomorrow’s games in the morning.
Badham I’m on Arsenal S on Milesys tip too, I went with his superior knowledge
Great tipping Mr F….how does it feel 2 be the Messi of the tipster world?
Mr H, today Messi tomorrow it could be messy.
Great tips tonight – well done everybody after PSG collapsed and that late Blackburn equaliser yesterday…
Had a nice double on GA Eagles win (didn’t risk the -1) and Koln based on really sound tipping here, but could easily have been persuaded by AL’s Gainsbrough tip – what a spot that was, sir!
And could also have gone for Xanthi based on a lot of sound assessment…
Wish i had, of course.
Great stuff MR F, you should have added Make Dijon V Nantes over 2.5 goals, and had a nice treble there ;) ;)
Milesey
Milesey, not keen on French games as you know.
Anyone know how gainsborough are doing?
WINNING 3-0 about 5 minutes to go.
Milesey
Looking good then, so should I now invest on arsenal de sarandi?
Milesey how confident about the Argentinian Arsenal tonight if you don’t mind me asking? Have no clue about them. Just checked last few games h2h and all that and it looks a go just want a bit of reassurance. Don’t worry ill hold u in no way responsible haha just need that final push.
“”San Martín were atrocious last season and are currently on a run of no wins in fifteen games. “” think that sums it up really for me…. ;)
Milesey
Arsenal Sarandi have been heavily involved in the Copa Libertadores/lot of rapid midweek games/various success..got lamped 5-2 at home by Ronaldinho’s Mineiro a few weeks ago but have steadied the ship with a draw n win since then to give them a chance of qualifying. They should win tonight..assuming they play a full team and aren’t looking over their shoulder at upcoming CL matches…8 point behind Lanus and its only a 19 match second part of season..gthis is their 6th game tonite…will they catch Lanus at top?..NO…cos they seem by far the best team and don’t have CL involvement to cope with. On the positive side Arsenal don’t play CL again til 4th April so should be up for it tonite!?…
A Metalist, GoAhead Eagles and Gainsborough treble helped stop the rot.
Going to be the over on the New Orleans Hornets game tonight and the under in the Miami Heat game
I had a deep sea diver on Go Ahead -1 (win), Koln (win), Dijon btts (win), Argie Arsenal (still to play) and Rapid (drew 0-0) for £450 at Paddy Power. Looks like Rapid have gubbed it, close but no cigar. Good tipping tonight Mr F and Milesey.
Thanks to Mr. Fixit and AL for Go Ahead Eagles and Gainsborough and a 40.42% profit on that series :-)
The Dane.
No worries, we’re all here for the same reason, to beat the bookies!
You got any tips for tomorrow? Just away to have a look at the fixtures now
Rosario 2-2 now ..haha..sweet when the cash out works in yer favour :-)
Muzza, yav been awfy quiet? whacha been up to??
Just busy Guido. Watching Coronation St ……….. Hahahahahahaha :-)
Me 2 Muzz…hope Sunita no get fried in the fire?..dunno if I’ll sleep now until Wed when all is revealed…guts be churning til then ya know? ;-( Fair play tho Emily Bishop as vigilant as ever, her nose for smoke alerted the authorities…hopefully in time eh??!! ;-)
Thanks to Mr Fixit, Al, Andy, Milesey, Guido and everyone else who tipped a winner today. Excellent night of success, even greater considering it was a crap Monday night schedule.
Great tips today guys! A good night for me.
Have to agree with Mr F about the French league. Far too unpredictable. Despite getting 9 out of 10 predictions right today I missed out on just under a grand as Nantes busted loads of 4, 5 and 6 team accumulators I had. Had them on double chance based on tip from bettipsuk.co.uk which has been very reliable recently.
Striker, in a funny way maybe less matches helps ya focus better, ya know?? I’ll take a chance on Arsenal Sarandi shortly 4/5..hoping they give it their full attention..finger be close to the cash in button just in case. eg Watched Boca last night..pure pish..no appetite to push it could tell they weren’t goin at it aside from first 15 mins when they went ahead. Cashed n got dosh back after an hour…finished 1-1 absolutely nothing happened in 2nd half
£43 up today and will be another £106 if Arsenal S come up trumps tonight. Brasov and Volgograd had 0-0 draws, if they had won I’d be sitting £840 richer but hey ho any profit is better than a loss so it’s onto tomorrow’s card and another search to best the bookies :)
I had
Gainsborough
Chelmsford
Koln
Cremonese
GAE
Casablanca all won
Waiting for arsenal to win for for a 44-1 shot to come in.. What’s the best way to play tho for a guarneteed profit.?
Cheers
Jeez Steve..thats a mixture yav go there..a trip around the globe!!! Lay Arsenal Sarandi…meaning if its a draw or SMSJ win your covered….
Back the draw and other team to win Steven equal stake out till ur happy with the winning whichever comes in.
Thanks for the info Guido hope I haven’t pushed it tonight. Fingers crossed !!!
1 Nil Arsenal 8mins ;)
Milesey
1-0 Arsenal Badham..npws the time to LAY Steven!!! :-)
Arsenal S up 1-0 after 8mins :) idesl
Ah cheers guys I know I looked at all
The tips and put them
Together really with thanks to mr F ,milesey and more. Have now backed the opposing team to win or draw at evens. Cheers
I don’t get this lay bet at all, it’s Swahili too me
Trade the bet out then ;) ;)
Milesey
arsenal 1 up
Good start! Guys question what site does everyone use for there stats and stuff like that been getting into betting lately but been using flashscore as its the only one I know?
Badham, Soccerway’s pretty good but there are others.
Steven wat I normally do if I’m waiting on 1 team is back the other team to win with scores
So u do 1-0 to opposition an put £20
2 -0 to opposition £20
2-1. And 1-1.
U should get good odds for outsider team score bet. U might stake £80 but that way u cover ur ass.
Me neither Mr H ha
Don’t know your green books from your back-to-lays? Still think dutching is splitting the bill at dinner? Worry not, here are all the terms you need to know to get your head around In-Play betting and its strategies.
Whether you’re visiting the In-Play section of betting.betfair right here, reading some threads on the Betfair Forum or hearing experienced punters chatting away, you’ll come across some betting terminology that you may not be aware of. So here are a few explanations of what a few of the key words mean.
When you place any sort of bet, whether pre-match or In-Play, you have to decide what your stake is. This is the amount of money you’re prepared to wager, effectively the amount of money you’re prepared to lose. It’s also sometimes known as your liability.
Now that you’ve decided you want to turn your hand to In-Play betting and know all about staking, you might fancy a spot of trading. If you read about the history of Betfair, the background of its founder or how the idea came about for a betting exchange, you’ll hear plenty of references to the stock exchange. So it’s no surprise that backing and laying bets In-Play with a view to making a profit is known as trading. Just like the city trader who buys and sells stock at different prices, the In-Play punter trades betting prices. The goal is the same – to make a profit.
By now you’ll know the difference between a back and a lay bet but we sometimes talk about back-to-lay bets and lay-to-back bets. The former means that you’re deciding to place a back bet but intend to lay it off In-Play at a shorter price. A lay-to-back bet is the exact mirror image of this sort of bet. You’ve laid something with the intention of backing it later on at a bigger price. If both these scenarios turn out as you predicted, you should be able to secure yourself a green book.
Your book is your position on the market, or in other words how much you win or lose on all the different outcomes. On Betfair the amount of money you stand to win on one or more selections is displayed as a green number. Maybe you’ve ‘dutched’ your bets (placed more than one on the same market) and have different amounts of profit on different selections or maybe you’ve had just the one lay so that you have the same amount of green on all selections, bar the one you’ve laid. The selection or selections that you lose on have a red number displayed next to them. Just like with your potential profit, your potential loss may vary on the different selection depending on the bets you have. If you manage to successfully trade your initial position (by backing at longer odds than what you originally laid at or laying at shorter odds than what you backed at) then you’ll see that the numbers on all outcomes will turn green, which means that you win on all of them or at least don’t lose on any of them. Hence your green book.
When you first open an account with Betfair you’ll be offered a free bet to get you started but here we’re going to discuss a free bet in a trading sense. Let’s say you’ve backed Everton to beat Chelsea at home at odds of 3.5 for £10. That man Tim Cahill scores with a header for the umpteenth time in his career to put the Toffees 1-0 up and at half-time they’re trading at 2.0. You decide that first and foremost you don’t want to lose your stake but that you’d rather have whatever green position you have on the market on Everton, rather than Chelsea or the draw. If you lay Everton for £10 at 2.0 you’re getting your stake back, don’t lose any money on Chelsea or the draw but keep a green position of £15 on Everton. It’s effectively, a free bet on them.
Just like in the stock exchange, you sometimes get very volatile match odds markets. That means that the In-Play odds change dramatically throughout the course of the match because the game has a lot of twists and turns. In truth, football markets aren’t nearly as volatile as a closely-contested tennis match, a limited-overs cricket game that goes to the wire or even a horse race where at different stages, several of the horses look set to win. But that doesn’t mean you don’t get them at all. They tend to happen in matches that have a lot of goals. A few weeks ago Blackpool travelled to West Brom and took an early lead and went favourites. West Brom then hit back with two goals of their own and themselves went favourites. Blackpool equalised with just ten minutes on the clock and with time running out, the draw went favourite. In the end West Brom scored a third just before the final whistle and Blackpool couldn’t find a reply. It was a good result for West Brom but it was also a great result for In-Play traders. If they had continued to lay whoever went favourite throughout the course of the match or backed the outsider at different stages, their book would have more green on it than a tropical forest.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
I tried that dutching malarky a few years back but could never seem to get the same odds as were being advertised by the dutching sites i was going to.
Dutch betting is a very powerful way of increasing the probability of a win scenario. It means betting on more than one outcome in the same event to make money, by Dutching the bets.
Why Use The Dutch Bets Method.
It increases the probability of winning, because you are spreading your stake over more than one runner.
When Is The Best Time To Use Dutching?
If you have more than one fancy in a race and can’t decided which to bet on. You have a choice to either leave the race alone totally, or Dutch your bet ’spreading your stake between the 2 runners you like.’
On a rare occasion as members know we do have the odd dutched bet in a race with The BetPlan.
Does A Dutch Bet Reduce My Returns?
Yes it does, because you are spreading your stake between more than one runner so your return will be lower if one wins, due to the loss on the other runner (but remember one must win). Both horses can’t win and if there is a dead heat then your odds will be reduced.
Can I Dutch My Bet On More Than 2 Horses?
Of course you can, but remember although your chances of winning may increase by having more horses running for you. The overall return on investment will reduce because your stake will be spread over more runners.
How Do I Calculate How Much To Put On Each Horse?
There is a formula to work out the spread of stake, but most people now use dutching calculators.
Here are a couple of links to the better race calculators that are free to use.
UK Horse Racing calculator
OddsChecker Calculator
Do I Always Have To Stake To Get The Same Return On Every Horse?
No, there are a number of ways to alter your stake, depending on how you feel about the runners. You could just cover stake one or a number of runners. This means if you really fancy horse A, but are worried about horse B.
Then you just reduce the amount on horse B to win back your stake only, then increase the percentage on your main fancy horse A to win more profit. In other works an insurance policy on horse B.
Are There Systems I Can Use On Dutching?
There are many systems that have been built around dutch betting over the years, because of the higher percentage strike rate. Some are better than others I will at a later date follow this subject and give you a few systems you can use, so watch this space.
Does Dutching Make More More Than Other Types Of Bets?
Used properly and with practice dutch betting can be very profitable, but like anything else the better you get at it the more money you make.
Allegedly this style of betting was named after Al Capone’s accountant (Dutch Schultz) who invented it and who I’m I to argue, they did make a lot of money. However it might have been because the bookie wouldn’t argue over which runners were bet on.
Milesey
Ah damn should as sleet it 2 mins nevermind big win on the cards!
Left not sleet
Bad ham try Soccervista and 24futbal, that’s the ones I use for stats
Cheers for Gainsborogh Al, and Eagles Paul, -added Koln, for a nice treble! A goal short for 5 team over 2.5 goals! Not bad for a quiet Monday card!
Trade in/cash in if uve got the option Steven/if your account provider offers it…take yer money…if yav gotta 5/6 team acca there, take it in run…sign up to Betfair/guaranteed to be able to cover yersel in such circumstance…some bookies sites wont gie ya option ya know?
Quality Milesy,I’ve saved that info for a thorough read tomorrow as after 2 botes of Devons finest monk juice it’s a bit mixed up for now but I’ll make sense of it tomorrow :) between Mr F and yourself we all have a head start against the bookies. Keep up the good work and it’s all appreciated big much sir
Me F what about a like/dislike option on posts?
Mr H – stick with this site for a few weeks…ull soon see opinions/barneys…. :-)
Mr H, what’s not to like? if you don’t like, don’t read!
Cheers for posting that Milesey!!
MR F , you ever heard of https://smarkets.com/ , i have never ever come across these before, but seem to be based in London ? you know anything about these ? seems to be a market similar to Betfair, was just finding info on lays for people and came across it.
———————————————————
Lay Bet
An important part of Sports Arbitrage betting is understanding how lay bets work. The difference of a regular bet (also known as a back bet) and a lay bet, is that on a back bet you bet on a team/player to win. If you were to place a lay bet on the same team/player, you bet on that team/player NOT to win. You can place a lay bet on exchanges such as Betfair, Betdaq and Smarkets.
Lay bet example
Let’s take a football match as an example, and lets say Manchester United is playing Liverpool.
If you were to place a regular back bet at Pinnacle on Liverpool, you will win your bet on Pinnacle if Liverpool wins the match.
If you place a lay bet at Betfair on Liverpool, you will win your bet on Betfair if Liverpool does NOT win the match. If Manchester United wins or the match ends in a draw, you have won your lay bet.
In other words, laying Liverpool is the same thing as backing both Manchester United to win or draw.
Using lay betting in Sports Arbitrage
By combining a lay bet at Betfair or Betdaq with a regular bet on another bookie, you have effectively made a 3-way game to a 2-way game. Even though there are three outcomes of the game itself, you have bet so there only are two outcomes of your bet. If the lay bet odds is smaller than the back odds, you have yourself an arbitrage!
Lay betting terms
The terms associated with a lay bet can be quite confusing at first, but once you get the hang of it, it’s pretty straight forward.
Backer’s stake: This is the amount you want to win. Let’s say that your backer’s stake in the lay bet example above was €100. Because you layed Liverpool, you will win €100 (minus commission, explained below) if Manchester wins or the match ends in a draw.
Commission: Exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq charges a percentage of your winnings. This percentage is by default 5% at Betfair, but the more you turn over at Betfair, the more discount on the commission you receive.
Backer’s odds: This is the odds of your lay bet. The higher the backer’s odds is, the higher the risk (liability) will be.
Liability: The liability of a lay bet is correlated with the stake and odds. A selection where the backer’s odds is 7 means that if you lose your bet you will lose 6 (7-1) times your stake.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
MIlesey, never heard of those guys you were on about. Maybe they’re doing something similar to BetButler, offering best price but taking a commission on bets.
2 nil to the ARSENAL ! ;)
Milesey
Ya goin to Bury 2moro Milesey?..too far? Ya confident of a win by that post earlier?
I’m Laying Bury, so a stevenage WIN or Draw would do nicely ;)
Milesey
if ya haven’t already cached in Steven..I would defo now! :-)
When’s my pal Kabbaas out again?…must be soon
Kabbaas (IRE)
ch g 2010 Pivotal (GB) Dorrati (USA)
Owner
Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum
Trainer
R Varian
Last Win Southwell Sun, 10th Feb, 13
1/12Fav, C Catlin
Days Since Last Win 36
Last Run Southwell Thu, 28th Feb, 13
2nd, 4/6Fav, C Catlin
No idea when out again, it was listed for an entry tomorrow at Southwell on the fibre sand, but was pulled out last week.
Milesey
Maybe hez swallowed a mouthful AGAIN!!
When ever people ask for trading advice, the standard response is BACK HIGH, LAY LOW !
Don’t you ever forget that GUIDO
BACK HIGH / LAY LOW
Write it on a piece of paper and stick it on your laptop, you ever forget the golden rule then your in trouble.
BACK HIGH / LAY LOW
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
You’ve engrained in in my head Mr Milesey!! BACK HIGH LAY LOW!! ;-) Im gonna cash oot on Arsenal now…cant be assed staying up til the end…potentially loosing out on 16 quid odd on payout on 4 score staked at 10/11…ill live with it. Night night Mr Miles n co. :-)
Get in! Cheers Milesey same as Mr H gona take this info in tmo and set up a Betfair account on the way to work! Anything I can do to get u commission?
Cheers mate,
I don’t earn commission from the site, https://promotions.betfair.com/uk-sb-sport-25nl-ppc?rfr=70001&sid=1620&mpch=ads
The fixed odds is as good as any bookie online, and you can place any multiple you wish, but the exchange is where you make some nice profit, and can back / lay, trade, cashout.
Milesey
SMSJ almost equalised when it was 1-0..hit the bar/good save by keeper…
2-1 in the arsenal game… too close now
Just as i say that 2-2
2-2 in the Arsenal game now, IT ALL GONE T*TS UP
Milesey
Tonite made up for PSG costing me £1020 yesterday.
Treble :-
Koln
Xanthi
Gainsborough
£35 returned £717
6 fold :-
Koln
Kharkiv
Cremonese
Go Ahead Eagles
Gainsborough
Cambuur under 2.5
£15 returned £447
£1164 . . :-)
Deano, a couple of nice wins there.
Tips from you guys came threw. Thank you :-)
Aaah oh well it is what is from here!
Four guys are sitting in a pub, passing some time by watching horse racing on the TV. There’s not a lot of luck about, except for one guy who seems to be winning nearly every race he dabbles in.
“Joe, what’s your secret, how are you picking so many winners?” his friend asks.
“It’s easy, I normally just stick a pin in the paper” replies Joe.
“But how come you’ve got it right nearly every time?” his friend wants to know.
“Well, today I decided to use a fork!”
Backing more than one selection in a race is frowned upon in certain gambling circles: “If you don’t have 100 per cent confidence in your selection, don’t have a bet” … or so the mantra goes.
The reality however is not so simple. Horses are mere four legged animals and very often throw the script out the window. Near misses, close finishes and above all, hard luck stories come thick and fast in this game.
Sometimes it’s good to have a back-up plan, and having three or four horses running for you in a race can drastically reduce the chances of something going wrong. The cynics will sneer and point out that picking a few horses in a single race obviously gives you a better chance of winning, but a lower return … yet isn’t winning the whole point here? Who cares if it takes two, three, four or even five horses to achieve that win.
Unfortunately, It’s not as simple as picking three or four horses with a pin (or fork!), sticking a tenner on each and hoping for the best. Races that are likely to prove profitable must be identified and just as importantly, the amount bet on each horse is calculated so that the same amount of profit is achieved should any of the horses win the race. This approach is known as ‘dutching’ and legend has it that the strategy was first created by Al Capone’s accountant “Dutchy” Schultz, hence its name.
Dutchy was patient and knew the strategy wasn’t a get rich quick scheme, but as an accountant, he appreciated regular, steady profit. Some things haven’t changed much – patience and discipline are still required in order to become successful at dutching.
To explain further, we can look at an example:
Let’s presume you feel that two horses have an exceptionally good chance at winning, but can’t decide which one to bet on. Instead of picking one, we can dutch the horses. The first step is to note the prices. In this case;
– Horse A is 3.0
– Horse B is 5.0
Next, you must decide how much you are willing to risk IN TOTAL for the bet. In this case, we shall assume that the total amount you are willing to risk is £100.
The last step is to split up the stake between the two horses, and place £62.50 on horse A, and £37.50 on horse B – Therefore, the total cost of bet is £100.
The outcome?
If horse A wins, you gain £125, but lose the £37.50 staked on horse B. Total profit should horse A win: £87.50
If horse B wins, you gain £150, but lose the £62.50 staked on horse A. Total profit should horse B win: £87.50
So as you can see, it does not make a difference which of your horses win, as you gain £87.50 either way. At this point, I should note that the above maths do not have to be worked out manually – simply type ‘dutching calculator’ into a search engine, and you’ll find a calculator that will work out the stakes for you. Needless to say, using traditional odds when dutching can become a bit of a nightmare, so decimal odds are a must for their flexibility and extra price variations.
Picking which races and horses to dutch is up to you, but with a bit of research, it should be relatively easily to find an edge. Last season for example, I noted that in non-handicap flat racing, the winner came from the top three in the betting roughly 70 per cent of the time. Therefore, dutching the top three in the betting would produce a 70 per cent chance of a winning bet. I decided to go one step further, and only bet if the overall potential profit was at least 25 per cent of my stake. I also excluded lower class races. The results are by no means scientific, but after 100 dutches, I had 64 winning races, and a profit of nearly £710 (using £100 per dutch). Granted, it’s a relatively small sample, but it proves that a simple approach can often pay dividends.
Dutching wont provide instant riches, and plenty of patience is required while waiting on suitable opportunities for bets. If you’re looking to get rich quick, this approach is not for you – try the lotto instead!
For those willing to put in some research however, dutching can provide steady, regular profits if a sensible, systematic approach is employed.
http://www.betfair.com/sport
Milesey
Cheers for all the info Milesey. One thing i don’t understand about laying is, say you laid a team at 1/5 for £10, and then that team won, do you lose £10 or do you lose £50 (as I heard you effectively become the bookie to people who backed that team to win)?
What is lay betting?.
01 Welcome / BF Education / 21 March 2011 / Leave a comment
“I bet you won’t get a bullseye”; “I bet you won’t finish all that”; “They’ll never win if he plays.”
We all make statements to friends like this every day. What you’re actually doing is ‘laying a bet’: betting something won’t happen.
Betfair have made lay betting possible.
For example have you ever thought Roger Federer was way too short to win an event, but couldn’t decide who was going to win the tournament?
Problem solved – by laying Federer, you are effectively backing the field to beat him. Much easier to cheer the whole field!
Like anything too good to be true, there is a catch. Should your selection win, you’ll pay the backer his winnings, which could be a lot more than the stake. Just be careful how much you decide to lay.
Laying bets sometimes causes controversy because you are betting on someone/something losing – but it has always happened that way.
If you back one horse to win a race, then by default, you are betting AGAINST every other horse in the race – you can’t cheer them all to win!
Betfair simply make the process simpler, cutting out the bookmakers’ margins.
In many sports or markets, such as a tennis match or under/over 2.5 goals in football, betting on one side is exactly the same as laying the other option.
How do the odds work for laying?
Imagine two everyday scenarios – flipping a coin and rolling a dice.
You and your mate each put a fiver on the coin toss. One calls Heads, the other gets Tails, and whoever wins gets £10.
You backed Heads for £5 to win another £5. The odds you received were evens or 2.
Or looking at it another way:
You laid Tails. You let your mate have £5 on Tails to win another £5, at odds of 2.
Either way, if it lands Heads, you win a fiver, if it lands Tails, you lose a fiver.
In a two-horse race, backing one side means you are laying the other.
So what happens when the odds aren’t even, or there are more than two options?
Think of a standard dice (or die). Pick a number. Your mate will pay you every time it lands on six.
What odds should it be?
It can’t be evens or 2, because that’s not fair – you’ve got much more chance of losing than winning.
Chances of winning – one
Chances of losing – five
The true price of this bet is five to one, or in decimals, 6 (potential profit plus your stake).
So your mate agrees to pay you the true price if you roll a six. You put down £1, he risks £5.
If your price is 5/1, what price is he getting for his bet?
He has five chances of winning, and only one chance of losing. So the odds are 1/5 or in decimals, 1.2.
If you’ve noticed the similarity, well done. It’s simply ‘flip the fraction’ to work out the other side of the bet.
True odds (such as 5/1 v 1/5) represent an efficient market.
This occurs when all the money going into the market equals all the money being paid out in the market – there is no leakage or profits being taken.
Efficient betting markets rarely exist outside of betting exchanges – bookmakers need to reap a profit in order to run a business.
Betting should all come down to weighing up the risk versus the reward.
Laying at 2 will win you more if you are correct, but it is more likely to happen than laying at 6. But laying at 6 will cost you more should that result occur.
Backing at 2 is more likely to happen, but you won’t win as much compared to backing at 6. And if you have bet to win a certain amount, then backing at 2 will cost you more if the selection doesn’t win.
When laying a bet, you can only win the other person’s stake.
Liability explained
Your liability is the amount you could lose in your worst-case scenario.
When backing it’s simply the stake which you place. When laying however it’s the amount it will cost you if your selection wins. Either way, it is how much you are risking.
Ensure you monitor how much you are liable for.
Be very watchful of where you put the decimal point. If you want to lay a bet at 4.2 make sure it is just that and not 42… otherwise it will be an expensive mistake should your selection win.
One thing’s certain though, Betfair will only let you risk as much as is in your account and at the best available odds.
If you lay multiple selections in a field your liabilities don’t accumulate, your bets offset each other providing the market only has one winner.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
get in arsenal !!!!!!!!!!!
booooooooooooooooom
Milesey
Boooooooom indeed can’t believe it! Final whistle please then bed! Nice one for taking ur time out tonight Milesey.
NICE 1 MILESEY
TOOK ALL YOUR TIPS TONIGHT
CHEERS
Nice one lads………. night all.
Milesey
Milesey, Arsenal S finish off a good night. At least Muzza will be happy.
Big wins al round with that arsenal result GET IN!! :)
Seen you’s all talking about Arsenal & backed them at 7/4 when 2-2 . . Get in lol
Great nite
thanks for the tips,i took gainsborough 6-4 koln 11-10 gah eagles -1 6-4 and cfr under 2.5 8-13 for 6 pound,helped me out big time as im skint thanks.
Brendan, nice one. You can buy me a pint next time you’re in Clydebank or get Milesey a white wine spritzer if you’re passing through Stevenage.
I’ll have an Irish Car Bomb and Mr F will have a horse’s neck ;) ;)
Milesey
A Horse’s Neck is made with brandy (or sometimes bourbon) and ginger ale, with a long spiral of lemon peel (zest) draped over the edge of an old fashioned or highball glass
Milesey, it’s an education this site. Going for a couple of beers later but reckon I’ll be kicked like a horse if I ask for that in my local.
Milesey, Irish Car Bomb – that’s lemonade with a drop of Guinness.
An Irish Car Bomb is an American beer cocktail that is drunk as a bomb shot, similar to a boilermaker. It is made with Irish stout, Irish cream, and Irish whiskey.[1]
To make the drink, whiskey is floated on top of Irish Cream in a shot glass, and the shot glass is then dropped into the stout. Once mixed, it must be drunk quickly because it will curdle.[2][3] While Kahlúa was part of the original recipe, it is often excluded from the drink today. Some refer to that original recipe as a Belfast Car Bomb
im from belfast and ive never heard of that drink ive seen plenty of car bombs but never drunk any,im off the devils butter milk for lent il maybe order one in a couple of weeks.cheers
there is a pint in the pump 4 u boys no probs thanks again