Man City v Burton

Carabao Cup semi-final 1st leg, Wednesday, January 9. KO 7.45pm. Live BT Sport 3

THE dream is about to turn into a nightmare for Burton who face the Man City juggernaut for a place at Wembley.

Nigel Clough's men have done incredibly well to join City, Spurs and Chelsea in the last four but the best side they've beaten on their way were Burnley.

They also defeated weakened Aston Villa and Nottm Forest at home and on the road edged out an out-of-sorts Middlesbrough to reach the semis for the first time.

For the League One side to now travel to the Etihad is a massive step up against a squad of superstars.

Pep Guardiola's men beat Championship side Rotherham 7-0 in the FA Cup at the weekend despite making eight changes and while Burton will defend for their lives a similar scoreline wouldn't be a surprise.

The fact it's over two legs means Pep will want this over and done with at the first attempt so he can play as weak a team as possible at the Pirelli.

On paper Rotherham are better than Burton but for Clough's men this will be the biggest game of their careers and maybe they'll save face with a three or four-goal defeat. All depends on how early they concede.

With Sergio Aguero back up front the likeliest scores are 4-0 and 5-0 and I would be surprised if Burton netted even a consolation as it will be all about parking the bus. City to win to nil is just 2-5 with Marathonbet.

So where's the value then considering City are no bigger than 1-20 at Betfred and Burton 80-1 with McBookie. Even a draw is 28-1 at betfair so it's like David's second string v Goliath.

To score first Aguero's 9-4 at betfair and he'll be popular as will Aguero to score 2+ at 13-8 with Betfred. An alternative first scorer could be Kevin de Bruyne at 8-1 with bet365 as he continues his comeback from injury.

On the handicaps City -3 pays 21-20 with Coral and I'll have to go with that. Minus two is fine for accas at 4-9 and if anyone believes Burton will put up a serious fight they are 19-20 with Coral +4 and 11-5 at Paddy Power +3.

For the super ambitious City -5 pays 4-1 at 888sport and City -6 is 8-1 with the same firm.

Every chance of a penalty here as City will be camped in Burton territory and they are 12-5 at bet365 to score one.

Recommended Bets

  • Aguero to score first (9-4, Betfred)
  • City -3 (21-20, Coral)
  • City to score a penalty (12-5, bet365)
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