La Liga top scorer odds and tips: Can in-form Mbappe catch Lewandowski?

During the summer, the Spanish top flight became the destination for one of the world’s biggest goal-scoring superstars.

Now we’re heading deeper into the second half of the season, a close battle is brewing between two of the great strikers of the modern era in Europe.

Best La Liga top scorer odds & match tips

Robert Lewandowski – 4/6

Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski is the Champions League top scorer favourite, and he's also still the man to beat in the La Liga top scorer race this season.

His 25 league strikes have come at a rate of a goal every 89 minutes so far. He looked like he might run away with the Pichichi at one point, but the veteran striker suffered a slight dip in form around the turn of the year.

Hansi Flick rotated Ferran Torres in for some games, and the team functioned well in his absence. However, Lewandowski has hit form again, with nine goals in his last nine league games, including a clinical finish against Atletico Madrid which sparked a brilliant Barca comeback win.

With Barca facing a crunch Copa del Rey semi-final second leg back at the Estadio Metropolitano this Wednesday, there's a good chance that Ferran will rotate back in for Saturday's league game against Betis.

Kylian Mbappe – 6/4

Mbappe did not initially have the prolific season that many predicted on his arrival at Real Madrid. He was particularly wasteful during the opening months of the campaign, but he has really found his shooting boots in recent weeks.

With 18 goals in his last 17 club matches in all competitions, including hat-tricks against Real Valladolid and Man City, Mbappe is looking supremely confident again. He's onto 22 goals in La Liga following a brace against Leganes, and the Frenchman now stands a real chance of pushing Lewandowski all the way in the Pichichi race.

However, given the Barca striker has netted three times since the international break, Mbappe has still drifted slightly from 11/10 to 6/4 in the race to be La Liga's top scorer.

Betting Tip: Mbappe over 2.5 shots on target vs Valencia – 19/10

Mbappe's average of 4.5 shots per game is the highest of any player in the Spanish top flight this season. His conversion rate was very low earlier in the campaign, but he's hitting the target much more frequently now.

The 2018 World Cup winner has had 22 shots across his last three games for club and country alone, hitting the target at least three times in each match. He looks good at 19/10 to repeat that feat against struggling Valencia this weekend.

Ante Budimir – 100/1

Osasuna's Ante Budimir has come on strongly since the end of September, and two goals against Villarreal in late November put him on the list of top-scorer contenders.

While he has always been playing catch-up with Lewandowski, the Croatian remains the leading Pichichi candidate outside of the top two clubs. He notched his 15th of the season against Getafe just prior to the international break, and the experienced striker has netted a stunning 32 league goals since the beginning of last term.

Betting Tip: Budimir to score a header vs Leganes

The Croatian international is a real physical presence up top for Osasuna and he has scored a number of key headed goals over the past two seasons.

Budimir averages 4.0 aerial challenges won per game this season in La Liga, a record bettered by only three players in the entire league.

Tough games against Barcelona and Athletic have restricted his opportunities over the past week, but he should have more joy at Butarque against relegation-threatened Leganes on Monday.

Raphinha – 100/1

Barcelona's Raphinha has come to life this season with his form in front of goal, despite not having been a prolific scorer throughout his career. His improved consistency as a goal threat has moved him past double figures and into the hunt to catch teammate Lewandowski.

However, he has not added to his tally in La Liga since his 13th goal of the season against Sevilla in early February. As a result, Raphinha has drifted out to 100/1 to finish as the top scorer, with an improving Mbappe now nine goals clear of him, while he trails Lewandowski by a surely unassailable 12.

Betting Tip: Raphinha to score anytime vs Real Betis – 6/5

Following a busy international break with Brazil, Raphinha hasn't featured in either of Barca's last two games, so his league goal drought is not really a sign that he is out of form.

The ex-Leeds man has still netted three times in his last three Barca appearances overall, with all of those goals coming against Benfica in the Champions League. After a welcome rest, Raphinha should return to the starting lineup against Betis, and opportunities should come his way in a fixture that invariably serves up lots of goals.

Our La Liga top scorer prediction

Since moving to La Liga in 2022, Lewandowski has tended to start quickly, before tailing off in the second half of the season. Given the heavy workload the 36-year-old has already had to deal with this term, a repeat is still possible, despite his very impressive current form.

He's also more likely to be rested than his only major competitor in this race, with Ferran Torres a viable alternative at Barca. We could see more of Ferran over the next couple of months in La Liga, particularly if Barca continue to make good progress in the Champions League which looks likely thanks to a favourable draw.

With Mbappe starting to look much more clinical up front for Real Madrid, the Frenchman looks the better bet at 6/4 to finish as the top scorer in La Liga.

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