La Liga top scorer odds and tips: Can in-form Mbappe catch Lewandowski?

During the summer, the Spanish top flight became the destination for one of the world’s biggest goal-scoring superstars.

Now we’re heading deeper into the second half of the season, a close battle is brewing between two of the great strikers of the modern era in Europe.

Best La Liga top scorer odds & match tips

Robert Lewandowski – 2/5

Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski is the Champions League top scorer favourite, and he's also still the man to beat in the La Liga top scorer race this season.

His 21 league strikes have come at a rate of a goal every 96 minutes so far. He looked like he might run away with the Pichichi at one point, but the veteran striker suffered a slight dip in form around the turn of the year.

Hansi Flick rotated Ferran Torres in for some games, and the team functioned well without the veteran striker. However, Lewandowski has hit form again, with five goals in his last six league games and he was shortened to 2/5 to finish as the top scorer following his latest strike against Real Sociedad.

Betting Tip: Barcelona -2 Handicap vs Osasuna – 7/5

A home game against mid-table Osasuna is up next for Barca in La Liga. Flick may consider resting Lewandowski for this one, with the game falling in between the two legs of their Champions League tie against Benfica.

Even if that's the case, the league leaders have enough depth to still rattle in a few goals and they're available at 7/5 with a -2 Handicap, a winning bet in three of their last six matches in all competitions.

Kylian Mbappe – 9/4

Mbappe has not had the prolific season that many would have predicted on his arrival at Real Madrid. He was particularly wasteful during the opening months of the campaign, but he has really found his shooting boots in recent weeks.

With 13 goals in his last 12 matches in all competitions, including hat-tricks against Real Valladolid and Man City, Mbappe is looking supremely confident. He's onto 17 goals in La Liga and he now stands a real chance of pushing Lewandowski all the way in the Pichichi race.

Betting Tip: Mbappe to score first vs Rayo Vallecano – 11/4

With Carlo Ancelotti showing little faith in fellow summer arrival Endrick, there is little prospect of Mbappe being rested for this weekend's home game against Rayo Vallecano, but he may be withdrawn early if the defending champions can work up a decent advantage.

That suggests Mbappe may not get enough time on the pitch to post big shot numbers or score multiple goals in this game, but he could still be worth a punt at 11/4 to net the opener.

Ante Budimir – 33/1

Osasuna's Ante Budimir has come on strongly since the end of September, and two goals against Villarreal in late November put him on the list of top-scorer contenders.

While he has always been playing catch-up with Lewandowski, the Croatian remains the leading Pichichi candidate outside of the top two clubs. He notched his 14th of the season against Valencia at the weekend, and the experienced striker has netted a stunning 31 league goals since the beginning of last term.

However, with Vicente Moreno's side heading to the Estadi Olimpic to take on the leaders, Budimir may not get many chances to add to his tally this weekend.

Raphinha – 40/1

Barcelona's Raphinha has come to life this season with his form in front of goal, despite not having been a prolific scorer throughout his career. His improved consistency as a goal threat has moved him past double figures and into the hunt to catch teammate Lewandowski.

However, he has not added to his tally since his 13th goal of the season in La Liga against Sevilla four weeks ago. As a result, Raphinha has drifted out to 40/1 to finish as the top scorer, with an improving Mbappe now four goals clear of him, while he trails Lewandowski by a surely unassailable eight.

Betting Tip: Raphinha to score last vs Osasuna – 4/1

The Brazilian has been at his most effective in the latter stages of games this season. He has scored twice as many second-half goals as first-half ones, with the ex-Leeds man frequently exploiting the space that opens up against tiring defences.

54% of his league goals have come after the 60th minute and Raphinha looks good at 4/1 to score the last goal in this match.

Our La Liga top scorer prediction

Since moving to La Liga in 2022, Lewandowski has tended to start quickly, before tailing off in the second half of the season. Given the heavy workload the 36-year-old has already had to deal with this term, a repeat is certainly possible, despite his impressive current form.

He's also more likely to be rested than his only major competitor in this race, with Ferran Torres a viable alternative at Barca. We could see more of Ferran over the next couple of months in La Liga, particularly if Barca make good progress in the Champions League which looks likely thanks to a favourable draw.

With Mbappe starting to look really sharp, and much more clinical up front for Real Madrid, the Frenchman looks the better bet at 9/4 to finish as the top scorer in La Liga.

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