Joyce vs Hrgovic prediction: One last dance?

Joe Joyce and Filip Hrgovic square off at the Co-OP Arena in Manchester this Saturday night, and there’s plenty on the line for both heavyweights. Each comes into this bout off the back of a loss, meaning that what happens this weekend will have a significant impact on their career trajectory. Will Joyce spark a late-career charge? Or does Hrgovic get himself back into contention? Read on for our Joyce vs Hrgovic prediction. 

Tale of the tape 

Joe Joyce comes into this clash as one of the more recognisable names in heavyweight boxing. The 39-year-old Brit has been around for a long time and fought some of the biggest in division.

He’s had plenty of success over the years as well. Between 2020 and 2022, Joyce strung together a brilliant run that saw him knockout Daniel Dubois, Carlos Takam and Joseph Parker, rising to No. 1 in the world.

Things have not been so bright since then, however, with back-to-back stoppage losses to Zhilei Zhang, followed by a decision defeat to Derek Chisora most recently, giving Joyce an overall record of 16-3-0 as a professional.

For Hrgovic, his path has been a little more linear. The Croat has been steadily building his name in the division, compiling 17 wins as a pro with his highest profile win coming against Zhang in 2022.

But mid-2024, his ascension took a hit when a cut handed him his first loss as a pro against Daniel Dubois. He hasn’t fought since then, and will be eager to improve his record of 17-1-0 this weekend. 

Joyce vs Hrgovic hot tip: Back a late stoppage for Hrgovic

Boxing betting sites favour Hrgovic heavily in this clash, but we aren’t so confident.

Yes, Joyce is aging, and some cracks are beginning to show. But Hrgovic was far from convincing in his outing against Dubois as well.

However, all things considered, our money is on Hrgovic ending this one late. Chances are he’ll be wary of the punching power Joyce has, and will have taken note of how much the Brit’s ability to absorb contact has deteriorated. 

Expect Hrgovic to be busy with the jab, avoid any rash exchanges early, and finish off a vulnerable Joyce between in the late rounds. 

Joe Joyce vs Filip Hrgovic: Key stats 

• Hrgovic holds a two inch reach advantage, despite both being the same height
• Joyce typically sits around 15 kg heavier than Hrgovic
• Both enter this bout having lost their last fight
• Hrgovic is seven years younger
• Joyce has won all but one of his fights by knockout
• Of all the fights these two have been involved in, 86.5% have ended in a knockout

Fight odds and win probability 

Here are the current Joe Joyce vs Filip Hrgovic odds:

Joe Joyce: 3/1 (4.00) – Implied probability 25%

Filip Hrgovic: 3/10 (1.30) – Implied probability 77%

*Joyce vs Hrgovic betting odds from Boylesports, subject to change.

Keys to victory 

Some fights require a miracle for the underdog to win, but we don’t think that’s the case here. There is a solid path to victory for each fighter, and it’s as follows: 

Joe Joyce – Get it done quick

Joyce has made a name for himself as a bit of a punching bag. The journeyman can take a hit, stick around, then win when his opponent tires or lets their guard down.

But that’s not the case anymore, and his two losses to Zhang made that abundantly clear. So, Joyce needs to take a different approach rather than relying on his deteriorating chin.

There’s no denying he has punching power, and age rarely changes that. Instead of trying to out-work Hrgovic, he needs to up the aggression, and aim to end this one early. Yes, it’s a risk, but so is eating Hrgovic’s jab for 12 rounds. 

Filip Hrgovic – Tire him out, finish him off

Just as Joyce needs to change his approach for this clash, so does Hrgovic. The Croat is typically an early fight aggressor, and loves to come out of the blocks fast to overwhelm his opponents.

We don’t think that’s his best bet of winning this fight, however. By all means, it may work, and we’d look silly if he wins this one by KO in round one. But he would look sillier if he walks into a big shot from Joyce early in the fight unnecessarily. 

Better for Hrgovic to tone things back a little, and aim to chip away at Joyce’s resistance steadily over the first half of the fight while making sure he doesn't get entangled in any risky exchanges. Then, when his opponent is worn down, up the ante in the second half and search for a knockout.

Sure, this relies on Hrgovic having improved his stamina from past fights, but we expect the 32-year-old to have done exactly that, knowing what game plan is best suited to fighting Joyce at this stage of his career.

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