VERY little to say about Sunday’s main double. The New England Patriots have never lost at home against a rookie QB. That’s 8-0.
While Deshaun Watson shows flashes of brilliance I will still take it lightly how he could only beat a Bengals defence with his legs and will face a much different side the Pats. They have a few concerns on the offensive front with Hightower the one to watch on defense but Belichick will have a good gamep lan regardless.
Last week I mistakenly thought the Bengals shutout at home in week 1 was a fluke but little did I know they’d be firing their offensive coach in week 3 without a TD scored.
That doesn’t bode well against with problems on their offensive line to boot. I doubt the Packers will hold them from scoring, but Dalton v Rodgers in Lambeau? No contest. The Packers had concerns after their loss in Atlanta but Nelson has been good in practice with Cobb being day to day.
Thursday night football sees an NFC West contest between the Rams and 49ers in the Cali Bowl. While this game is tough I think the Rams have a lot more going for them right now. The pressure has been taken off Gurley with the addition of a franchise QB in Goff and finally ditched Jeff Fischer for a younger, man-managing Sean McVay.
Cooper Kupp was highly touted after his combine performance and has shown a chemistry with Goff early on. It’s a small line for a side essentially on home turf, with higher aspirations, more talent and no injuries,which the Niners have real problems in their secondary.
Jordan's Week 3 Tips
- New England Patriots -6.5 (Sun, 6pm)
- Green Bay Packers -2.5 (Sun, 9.25pm)
- (7-10, bet365) – 10pts
- LA Rams -2.5 (Fri, 1.2am)
- (19-20, Bwin) – 4pts
Still looking at other lines but I’m getting on this one early.
Todd Gurley o28.5 Receiving yards 1.72 @bet365
Gurley has been a huge part of the rams offense so far running and receiving. His last 2 games he’s had 48 and 56 receiving yards. Today he goes up against the 49ers who gave up 38 receiving yards to a fairly similar RB Christian McCaffrey last game. I feel like Carlos Hyde could have a big game too with the Rams allowing 229 rushing yards last week against the redskins. Might post another prop later.
Echo your thoughts on Hyde but his line is too big in what I think will be a loss for the Niners. They’ll have to throw if they want to win. Cooper Kupp TD Wincast @ 3/1 @ William Hill is worth a point. Caught a TD over the middle in week 1, with Niners safeties questionable, he could be in for a big night.
Gurley ends with 36.
Still don’t understand why Cooper didn’t just play it safe and take the touchback, Rams should’ve ran away with the game.
With you on the rams Jordan expected a 6 or handicap so getting -2.5 is good price. To be fair 49ers played well last week but they always seem to get themselves up for Seattle more than any other team. Rams should have scored more against Washington but they will be under nowhere near same pressure tonight
Tonight’s bets
Rams -2.5 10/11
Alternate spread rams -5.5 6/4
Anytime scorer Todd Gurley 6/4
Good luck tonight
Sickening to see the Rams chuck that lead and my bet away but that’s the NFL. Double or nothing on the weekends main bet.
So many defensive injuries going into this weekend, should lead to some decent props.
First four game Sunday. Looking forward to it. Have already posted about the main double so will just re-add it at the bottom, but a couple of prop bets to tempt you in some of the tv games.
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London Game Prop
Javorius Allen (Baltimore Ravens) Over 76.5 Rush & Rec Yards @ 5/6 @ PP – 3 points
The first London game of the year see’s the Baltimore Ravens and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are
used to playing in London, but they still don’t look to be a decent team again this year, and maybe they won’t be with Bortles under center. Terrance West missed a few days of practice this week, but will likely play a reduced role while Allen takes the lead role again.
Early Games – 6:00PM
Mike Gillislee (New England Patriots) Over 13.5 Rush Attempts @ 5/6 @ PP – 6 points
Vice-versa on the Texans giving up the yards on the ground as the Pats have. They will also need to gently take care of their offense this season if they want another Super-Bowl appearance, and they’re already hurting. Gillisle should get his yards on the ground, especially with Rex Burkhead out. He’s carried the ball 15 times, while Burkhead has been active…
Jay Ajayi (Miami Dolphins) Over 104.5 Rush & Rec Yards @ 5/6 @ PP – 3 points
Ajayi has been held out of practice all week with a knee injury, until being listed as a full participant today. He might be limited, but if given the same kind of role as last week (25 carries) he should stream-roll the Jets defense who has given up 185 rushing yards over their first two games.
Lamar Miller (Houston Texans) Over 76.5 Rush & Rec Yards @ 5/6 @ PP – 3 points
Houston, despite likely having another growing season, have been running the ball fairly balanced, taking the pressure of their rookie QB. A week 3 loss is more or less in the books (we hope) but that doesn’t mean they won’t move the ball at all. Hightower is still questionable, and with the Pats giving up plenty of scrimmage yards to the backfield over the first two weeks, Miller should have a decent game. He’s gone over this total in the first two weeks with an offensive line made of sand, so I don’t see why it can’t happen again.
Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions) Over 264.5 Passing Yards @ 10/11 @ Skybet – 3.3 points
I took Ebron’s line on Monday night but despite racking up the majority of the line in the first half, the Lions abandoned the run game against a poor Giants offense. They will not be allowed to abandon the run against the high powered Atlanta, who although are only giving up an average of 242 pass yards per game, will likely take the W despite a 2-0 start for both teams.
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Late Game
Phillip Rivers (Los Angeles Chargers) Over 269.5 Passing Yards @ 10/11 @ Skybet – 3.3 points
Rivers will be trying to avoid going 0-3 (which would essentially end the Chargers post-season hopes) but will face one of the Super Bowl favourites. Big ask? Maybe. While suggesting the Chargers could keep it close (the line-makers, not me) Rivers will have to take this game into his own arm. Kansas despite scoring all over teams, have been letting the yards gained through the air. Brady threw for 267 in week 1, with Wentz throwing for 333 last week. the Chargers are throwing the ball 67% of the time, which should also hold true tonight with a likely loss on the cards.
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Main Double
New England Patriots -6.5
Green Bay Packers -2.5
7/10 @ 365 – 10 points (Can now get 7/10 with the Packers on the ML with their injury concerns. Expect Nelson to play, and as long as 12 is playing, Green Bay have a chance, more so at home). Can add the Carolina Panthers Over 1.5 TD’s for a 6/5 Treble.
Good luck gents.
Just For Fun
Ravens ML
Falcons ML
Broncos ML
Patriots -6.5
Dolphins ML
Panthers ML
Eagles ML
Steelers ML
Buccaneers ML
Packers ML
Chiefs ML
68/1 @ 365 – 1 point
Nice post Jordan.
Was just about to post about Allen’s rushing yards too.
I think Fournette could go overs as well with Williams out for the Ravens.
Will have a look at the props now and see if there are anymore that stand out.