HERE we are again. NFL week 1. What a joy it is to write that. Seems an age ago we saw the ‘Philly Philly’ in the Super Bowl. So much has happened since then, and as much as I would love to cover it all, there’s only so many hours in the day.
The most recent big news is Kalil Mack heading to Chicago in a trade. The true details of why Oakland traded Mack away will likely never surface, as no matter how much cap space he would have taken up, you do not trade away premier pass-rushers like Mack in this day and age, especially so young in his career.
The Raiders will very much feel that loss as he is a one game wrecking machine. That is unfortunate for my side, Green Bay, as we’ll be seeing him twice a year, but hopefully not in week 1 when Chicago come to title town. It does however boost my confidence in the Chargers to win their division and I may have an added stake to the division outright. Their first game is against the Chiefs so it will have some effect on the odds once its over.
Anyway week one gives us some fairly readable games with teams that I fancied when the schedule came out, and a few bonuses have gone in my favour since.
I had the Bills down as one of the teams to have the worst records this year. They barely made the playoffs last season, lost their starting QB tis offseason, their RB could be looking at a suspension or even a prison sentence, waived their receiver who they traded for from the Browns, and as recent as yesterday, traded their supposed starting QB to Oakland.
They face Baltimore who I like as a sleeper to make the playoffs this year. As said above the Bills pipped them at the playoff post with a late Bengals TD last year. They added key pieces to their offense in the off-season with Crabtree, Brown and Snead all being added to the receiver room, as well as drafting two top tight scouted tight ends. The one thorn in their opener is that they’ll be without their best cornerback Jimmy Smith who is suspended for four games for personal conduct.
While that is a tough loss, we can breathe easy as outside of Kelvin Benjamin, the Bills don’t have too much a threat at receiver unless first year Zay Jones can improve on a poor rookie season.
The Buccaneers head to New Orleans in an NFC South matchup. As said with the Ravens I fancied the Saints here long before the news broke out that franchise QB Jameis Winston will miss three games for his Uber driver incident back in March 2016. The spread was 7.5 and has since gone out to 9.5 at the books. I will gladly tease that down to a field goal win even without the Saints two-headed running back pairing of Ingram and Kamara. Saints are a hot favourite for the Super Bowl this year and were only beaten on a fluke, yes @mar10bet, a fluke play to take them to the NFC conference final.
NFL Week 1 Tips (Sunday September 9)
- Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (6pm)
- New Orleans Saints -2.5 (6pm)
- (3-4, bet365) – 4 points
**********************************************
- Baltimore Ravens -2.5
- New Orleans Saints -2.5
- LA Chargers ML (9pm)
- (9-5, bet365) – 2 points
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- Baltimore Ravens -2.5
- New Orleans Saints -2.5
- LA Chargers ML – 9:00PM
- LA Rams ML (Tuesday 3:20am)
- (3-1, bet365) – 1 point
***************************************
- Baltimore Ravens -2.5
- New Orleans Saints -2.5
- LA Chargers ML
- LA Rams ML
- Vikings ML (6pm)
- Packers -2.5 (Monday 1.20am)
- (64-10, bet365) – 1 point
Great write up Jordan as per .
Looking forward to the season been some great tips on here over the years on the NFL will post my ante posts later ,here’s to a profitable season ?
My favourite time of year.
One update for now, I’m trusting a frustrated Falcons squad to get there revenge WK1 win against Eagles. Nick Foles has been inconsistent at best throughout his career, no Carson Wentz for the Eagles this game.
Falcons -2.5.
On top of the early QB issues for the Eagles it looks like the games came to quick for Jeffery too. So I think the Falcons gave enough to win this game but as they’re against a formidable D with some new additions to the secondary I took the under too. Got 46 but it’s 45 now. We’ll see how bad these 15 yard penalties hurt as that might drive the score up but it’s low points till Sunday.
Falcons ML
Under 46 points
16/5 @ bet365
I’m hoping the addition of Calvin Ridley helps things open up against the Eagles, there secondary is known to be extremely aggressive biting on double routes & jumping routes early, which is something New England exploited in the Super Bowl. It was highlighted prior to the game as an area to exploit so we shall see whether or not the Eagles set up in a similar way this year.
Falcons have an extremely fast & athletic defense. Hopefully for there sake they can piece something together again this year otherwise they might not get back again for a little while.
Before the Super Bowl win last year not many pegged the Eagles as a strong winning team either, might be worth taking a look at the season long bet for the Eagles win total to go under.
@jordan Will you be posting your anteposts selections for this coming season or have I missed the thread?
I don’t bet on NFL but don’t remember seeing them.
No @Jordan has been putting a few up and keeping updated on market moves. Think he even asked for a thread for them. I don’t know why I’m defending him though as I just read the end of his write up ? Vikes fan getting it tight off the cheese head already! I think Princes spirit “entered” Williams to allow Diggs the Minneapolis Miracle. Only in NFL eh!
https://mrfixitstips.co.uk/jordans-nfl-tips-back-a-rams-raid-on-nfc-west/
FOR about 6 months I’ve harped on about how good the price was on the Rams to win the NFC West and now you can barely get better than 4-5 across the board.
As I had mentioned in previous posts (they have been lost in transit to a new computer) they have had one of the better off-seasons with big players added to positions of need. Prices would lead you to believe this will be closer than you think, but I think otherwise. I’ve got the Rams finishing at least 2nd seed in the NFC based on wins, with the 49ers coming second in the West division, miles behind LA!
I have previously posted the LA Chargers to win their division @ 2-1, and best now is 9-5 @ bet365. Losing tight end Hunter Henry won’t help their chances, but for me are still one of the best teams in the league this year with one of the easier schedules.
I’ve had a hunt around other places and feel there is value to be had around the league. Jacksonville and Houston can’t be picked between them to win the AFC South, but for me, both will be going to the post season. They have very favourable schedules, and Houston in particular should be up there as long as Watson stays healthy. Jaguars lost a few offensive weapons, but their main man (not Bortles) will still do the damage on the ground in Fournette. Very rare does a defense that good regress that badly the next season, so they should be there or thereabouts.
Speaking of regressing defenses, the New York Giants went from one of the best in 2016, to worst in 2017. They’ve got rid of everyone in the backroom and with Saquon Barkley in the backfield, you have to be scared when you look at their line-up every week. Eli isn’t hyped up as one of the elite QB’s, but with this offense and most importantly an improved offensive line, I have them having a very decent turn around this season and they hold excellent value to make the playoffs.
The way I see it, the Eagles aren’t going to be as good as last year, Dallas haven’t got a receiver I can name in the top 50 in the league, and Washington traded their long stay QB for an aging vet in Alex Smith. Its there for the Giants to take.
Final pick is Baltimore to make the playoffs. This would have landed last season if it wasn’t for the final game of the season where they let the Bengals score on a 49 yard TD on 4th and 12. every year they bring out a defense that means business, but have seemed to lack those offensive weapons over the last few seasons.
With additions of Crabtree, Brown and Snead, they have added a receiver for every slot on the field, to go with their two first round weapons from the draft. I doubt Lamar Jackson will make much of an impact this year, but tight end Hayden Hurst should. Very much a catch first tight end, Joe Flacco could find his favourite target very quickly.
Jordan’s NFL Tips
LA Rams NFC West Winners (4-5, William Hill)
Jacksonville Jaguars To Make Playoffs (5-6, William Hill)
Houston Texans To Make Playoffs (EVS, bet365)
LA Chargers To Win AFC West (9-5, bet365)
New York Giants To Make Playoffs (4-1, William Hill)
Baltimore Raves To Make Playoffs (13-8, bet365)
La Rams NFC Winners (11-2, bet365) EW (1/2 Odds – 2 Places)
☝️Wouldn’t take the link but there’s @Jordan full write up
Great to see you back boys. Cheers for posting that @mar10bet ??
Prices have moved slightly but if anyone got on when I first posted we’re already ahead of the market on the majority of ante-posts.
Probably won’t have anything for the opener tomorrow. Like to wait on player props to see exactly how teams are playing. We saw how a Wentz-less Eagles perform so I wish you luck lads ??
Said I may add to my Chargers ante-post and that’s now true.
LA Chargers AFC West Winners @ 7/5 @ PP
Div Winners Acca
Patriots
Ravens
Jaguars
Chargers
Vikings
Eagles
Saints
Rams
560/1 ?
Worth a pound. Be interesting to see how close this gets and the cash out involved. Bell not reporting for Pittsburgh for what could be until mid-season is huge in that division, and while the Bengals have made me think they’re better than I thought in the preseason, Baltimore look strong if they can get it right. Obviously the odds reflect the chances but its not the worst 560 shot you’ll ever see posted.
Going to go against the grain here.. I’m not sure the Rams are going to be as dominate as we think they might be. Last team to go superstar “dream team” mode was the eagles and that panned out awfully.
Just not sure I can trust anyone in the NFC west right now to beat them over 16 games, funny how that was the strongest division not too long ago…
@jordan You’d be correct in thinking Ravens/Steelers over Bengals, Andy Dalton can never quite do enough in the big time games. Is this the year Flacco finally plays up to his contract?
Any idea on Saints/Patriots/Vikings/Jaguars as division winner odds?
Hi all,
NFL starts tonight so every team starts with hope ,in an open year think up to 10 teams could get to the dance and win the super bowl.
Always put 4 ante posts selections up so here goes for me the NFC is the stronger conference so three of my selections
Green bay 12/1
New Orleans 16/1
Atlanta20/1 all general
Green bay Rodgers stays fit in contention
Plus great signings in the secondary
New Orleans D Brees plus Ingram,Ginn and a good D
Atlanta excellent offense and up grade to D
My Afc selection is Houston 25/1
Unlucky with injuries last year but Watson j j watt merciless
All back make then dangerous.
Division double
Green bay 5/4
Houston 7/4 coral
Good luck all
Couple of RAB season bets from Skybet
Houston
Chargers
Ravens
To make playoffs 6/1
Plus
A Rodgers regular MVP
And E Elliot most rush yards
33/1
Small change that one
Good luck
Games pretty much going as First though with 2 great D’s and Foles struggling but maybe a bit lower than expected. Got on under 49.5 @ 20/23 before Atlanta’s 4 & out in the red zone and seriously tempted to play the over now as these teams both look like they’re starting to tire. Over 29.5 seems doable so taking a nibble at 5/6 and heading to bed as this is just too late for an 08:00 start.
Looks like the falcons spent the whole pre season not practicing red zone offense again LOL.
Very early days for them but In the super bowl season they would’ve scored in the red zone.
Couldn’t agree more @harleec7. Turns out moving Sarkisian from the stands to the sideline isn’t enough ? I think we still have 2 strong contenders here but. Decent start but Sunday shall be good. Defo doing some RedZone on Sky this Sunday over the live games to get a feel for the teams. Never thought I’d say this but “I’ve missed you Scott Hanson” ?
One thing that looks sort of confirmed is the Falcons D is looking strong injuries permitting. Matt Ryan doing nothing to prove Ramsey wrong with his MVP year being down to coaching rather than performance levels.
my beloved Patriots kick off on early sunday so my initial focus will be on them, might play the redzone on my laptop ! definitely can’t wait for it though.
Neal ACL. Fe players took some knocks. Already have chances diminished. Julio likely won’t see 16 games at this pace. I’d start fading. Favoured Saints and Panthers over them this year.
One thing Rams have over most teams is a young coach who knows how to manage players rather than shout stuff on a Sunday.
Seahawks, lost loads of players, have no offensive line still, second at a push but I’d take LA both games.
49ers, on the rise but don’t have the roster to beat LA over two games and have a tougher schedule.
Cardinals, look better than expected in preseason but again, maybe knick a win at home, one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this year. Three road games in four weeks at the Chargers, Falcons and Packers midway through the season.
Hills have every team in the 6pm games to score a touchdown at 11/4 ,I think it’s the wrong price
Afternoon chaps
Early Cleveland +6
Colts -2
Baltimore -6
49ers + 9.5
Acca pays 6/1
Late chiefs +6
Denver ML
Carolina ML
Arizona ML
Acca pays 6/1
Very late/Min
Chicago +7.5
Jets +7
Oakland + 4 acca pays 6/1
Well Vikes D get it done again but big disappointment with Saints & Chargers. How can Chargers put up so many yards and still get beat ??♂️ Mixed bag with bets tonight but going to try on the over in the Packers game. There’s a buzz about the Bears now with getting Mack on top of the new targets for Trubisky. Nagy will be offensive and we don’t really need to expand on Rodgers. So I see points but I also see a close game. Close enough to take the points on Chicago.
Bears +6.5
Over 45 points
11/4 double @ bet365
2 points
Good shout mar10bet you called it.
Rodgers what can you say amazing ,
In the NFL probably maybe 5/6 wow quarterbacks who constantly do it week in weekout .
True franchise QB
Didn’t get time to post my picks soon enough yesterday.
Today is pretty straight forward in my eyes. Rams -4.5 vs Raiders has to be on paper a shoo in, the defence is damm right nasty not sure I can trust amari cooper to be consistent all game against Talib let alone Peters as well.
Raider will want to establish a ground game but how does Lynch and whoever else have success against Donald, Suh & Brockers?
Detroit -7 vs Jets.
Again pretty straight forward Sam Darnold against Matt Patrica defence, nothing quite compares like real game time experience and expect Patrica to throw out his usual tricks, been a Patriots fan for many years, his versatility with schemes is extremely good.
Matt Stafford is a franchise QB, Lions are a play off team and will be looking to build on this.
Side note name me on Jets WR/TE not named Terelle Pryor without googling :)
Ram -4.5 with Raiders -7 double for me tonight.
Couldn’t agree more @harleec7. I think Raiders are in for a long season and rookie QB up against the Lions is too much to ignore. I’ve took the straight ML double but only paying 9/10 now.
Also has Gruden been away too long and a bit of a dinosaur ? I can’t help but think he’s going to run the ball first. Be it his “philosophy”, Rams pass rush or what looks like one of the best secondaries. I like Carr and think he’s a great gun slinger but I just can’t see him getting any change out the Rams or allowed to throw for 236 yards so taking a score prop too.
Rams ML
Lions ML
9/10 @ bet365 – 5 points
Carr under 235.5 total passing yards
8/11 @ bet365 – 5.5 points
What happened with the Lions ? I was burned last night ? at least we’re seeing some pointers for week 2 now.
Wow eating my words or what.
First play of the game pick six for Darnold – It was going all so well.
Oh well onto Thursday’s game which I like as more of an Under.
Bengals scored 34 on the road but more importantly trailed by 13 points midway in the 3rd then scored the final 24 points of the game so the next game could come quick enough and it’s TNF! Ravens score 47 and although it was against a poor Bills team they were probably the team of week 1.
Ravens & Bengals have both established a passing and running game so there’s no one dimensional play here. A.J Green went 6/92 yards and a TD while Mixon had 95 yards and a touchdown rushing for Bengals. Ravens had 6 TD’s (3 rushing & 3 receiving) with Flaco looking good.
Add in Jimmy Smith out till week 5 for the Ravens and it’ll make life far more easier for A.J Green tonight.
These 2 also know how to beat each other on the road with the last meeting putting up 58 points so I see a competitive scoring game here.
With all that said I’m not buying these are 2 defensive teams and with the total dropping to 43.5 now I’m taking the over.
Ravens @ Bengals over 43.5
10/11 @ bet365 – 5.5 points
Hi gents. Apologies for last week. Disappointing when you pick two teams to win, one team flies in while the other scores 40 and loses. Thats NFL and in hindsight the total was the play in New Orleans. Hoping to get our first steal of the season in Baltimore. AJ Green will likely see double coverage as he always does against Baltimore, and I’m intrigued by the Bengals first round pick from last year John Ross. He caught a Td on a fade route on the goal line which is unlike him, but this guy has serious speed which he showed at Washington and in the pre season. 30.5 is a yardage he could achieve with one over the top pass.
No big money just making a Thursday night more interesting.
John Ross (Bengals) Over 30.5 Receiving Yards @ 4/5 @ 365 – 2.5 points
Sorry, were in Cincinnati ?
Unlucky last night Jordan. Couldn’t stay awake so don’t know if he had chances or not. Still onwards and upwards. So where we at for THE game of week 2? Was really impressed with the Packers D keeping Chicago close enough for Rodgers to take the win but he looked like he got through the 2nd on adrenaline. That knee looked bad enough to be concerned this week at least. Just need Cousins to get fully in the grove now as the rest is a well oiled machine for the Vikes. Should be a great game.
@mar10bet genuinely can’t call it. Rodgers will play, there’s no way he’ll miss this game but your defence is scary wherever they are. Rodgers is going to have to get that ball out quick. Will be a very good game.
Week 1 was not one to remember with the Chargers losing at home to Kansas who look an offensive juggernaught in the win. LA are on the road this week, but lucky for them they are playing the team I had down for the number one pick in next years draft in Buffalo, who were demolished in Baltimore. Peterman was benched early on, and while Allen was an improvement, he still only needed the game with a 57 passer rating. He might be better on home soil, but if the Chargers want a division win they are going to have to win games like these.
Double that up with the another LA team to wipe the floor at home to the Cardinals who looked awful with Bradford under centre at home to the Redskins week 1. LA found it tough until late on in Oakland but got in their groove to win with ease. A division game should see a tougher contest but I can’t see the Cardinals putting up many points against this defense.
LA Chargers -2.5
Rams -6
4/5 @ 365 – 5 points
LA Chargers -2.5
Chiefs Over 1.5 TD’s
49ers ML
Rams -6.5
23/10 – 1 point
Redskins ML
Falcons ML
Jets ML
Saints -2.5
LA Chargers -2.5
Chiefs Over 1.5 TD’s
49ers ML
Rams -6.5
Broncos ML
37/2 @ 365 – 0.5 a point