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Tramore was called off yesterday due to the weather and as a result, we were left with 3 selections. All three ran considerably under par with the slight exception of Doha, who was given a shocking ride by Hector Crouch.
Wednesday's racing looks tricky and the quality of the meetings is pretty poor but we've selected four horses from four seperate meetings that hopefully go well.
Cairnzy's Tips
Banderas 4/1 – Kempton 5.40
Although a frustrating horse to follow, Banderas looks a fair price at 4/1 in what looks a wide-open contest. My selection takes a drop in grade for this race and hopefully, a combination of returning to the AW with William Buick on board can see him bounce back to form.
He showed some nice form as a three-year-old, finishing third on the AW at Southwell behind Saint George who finished second to Gregory in last year's Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. He also went down by a head to Klondike who recently won a listed race at York under a cool ride by Ryan Moore.
Banderas made his seasonal return in April when running over 1m4 on soft ground at Ripon. He finished one and a quarter lengths back in fourth which wasn't a bad effort given he was returning from a layoff. That race was eventually won by Sea King, who I tipped up to win yesterday, and he did, so the form of that effort now reads quite well. Chillingham who finished third has also gone on to run well and place in some decent class 2 handicaps.
Banderas then ran at Doncaster, finishing third on ground that was far too quick for him. Finishing third was a good effort in the grand scheme of things as he was ridden off the pace that day and had no chance of winning from where he was positioned.
His most recent outing at Thirsk was a strange race, they crawled around the course that day and when the pace quickened he simply didn't pick up. He had shown better form before that run and for that reason, I think it's better to ignore that performance.
Kinako Mochi 10/3 – Yarmouth 4.40
This is an interesting race and one that has the potential to be informative for future flat races in the season. Some unraced types look interesting however it's hard to look past the two at the head of the market. The Gosden-trained Morrophore who currently heads the market, showed signs of promise on debut despite running green. The Gosden yard has had more downs than ups this season and I'm finding it hard to trust their runners at the moment. I decided to take Morrophore on with Kinako Mochi, who could represent some value at 10/3.
Kinako Mochi showed clear signs of ability in her two runs to date, securing second place at Kempton over six furlongs on debut as a juvenile on the all-weather surface. She returned to the AW at Lingfield where she once again clinched second place, this time racing over seven furlongs.
The transition to turf remains untested territory for her but I'm confident she can transition what she's shown on the AW to the grass with no issues.
Rizzel's Tips
Dancing Tango 4/1 – Fairyhouse 6.30
This Group 3 over 1m 6f for fillies and mares is a competitive race on paper, but I'm going be siding with Dancing Tango to deliver the goods under Dylan Browne McMonagle.
Joseph O'Brien sends three horses for this race but based on the jockey bookings, Dancing Tango is the one to be on as Dylan has been his main jockey this season, with more than three times the amount of rides to the nearest jockey. On form, you'd have to say that Dancing Tango has the best chance, not only of the Joseph O'Brien trio but the rest of the field as well, with maybe the exception of Trevaunance from a couple of years ago.
For me, Dancing Tango has been crying out for this longer trip for quite some time. She has only run over this distance once, which came as her seasonal reappearance this season, where she probably needed the run, as her run the time after was a much-improved effort (over shorter), but it was on heavy ground and even though she has shown a liking to soft ground, it's not the same and on her first run in 200+ days, it's not an ideal start. She finished runner-up to an improving Dermot Weld gelding who was a close second in a Group 2 last year. The front two pulled clear of the third, suggesting the front two are much better than the Listed company they were racing in.
Dancing Tango has always finished her races off very strongly over the 1m 4f trip, so she definitely deserves another shot at the longer trip today. Last time out she had a sustained battle with a horse who had form over 1m 7f, so she showed she had a strong enough engine to push him to the line.
Trevaunance has got some strong pieces of form to her name, mainly in France over shorter trips and they weren't recent. I'm not sure she would want this type of stamina test, but with Shane Foley on board, they must fancy their chances even though I thought Scarlett O'Hara would be better suited by the conditions.
Big Bug 11/2 – Lingfield 4.30
For Wednesday's racing, you're going to need horses who handle very tough conditions as the British weather has been atrocious and the ground is now soft at the majority of the tracks. Lingfield was already soft ground and they are expecting more rain to land, so you're going to see many horses withdrawn in the morning.
Big Bug has already proven herself on soft ground when finishing as runner-up at Redcar at the back end of May. Not only has this 2yo filly of Advertise proven that she handles the ground, but the form has worked out better than anyone had expected. The winner of the Redcar race has finished fourth in a Group 3 at Chantilly in France, the fifth-placed horse won next time out and the fourth-placed horse was placed on her next start.
It wasn't a true showing from Big Bug last time out on good to firm ground at Bath as she stumbled out of the stalls, which instantly put her on the backfoot which is not ideal in a sprint race. She still ran with credit to finish one length behind Forever My Prince who is in this race, and given that the horse just named was leading for a part of that race, Big Bug did well to get as close as she did. With much different conditions today and an extra half-furlong, I fully expect a switch in that form.
come on you spurs 2.30 well done all winners yesterday
Bama lama 5-50 ffos las
11-8 top 3 finish BETFRED.
Finished 33132 in similar races recently and won on this day last year at Chepstow
Lovely winner Elvis…Got 7’s…Cheers
On the nose ??
Glad you were on kf.
Just the 11-8 place only for me lol but it’s my only bet today so had a good stake to make it worthwhile.
Great, Good Man…
Nice work parsnip !!!
With the racing so far this week being as bad as the weather, I’ve been looking ahead to the July meeting at Newmarket which starts tomorrow.
I’m putting up my selections now as I’ll be busy tomorrow and won’t have time.
1.50 Space Legend 2/1
Too many question marks for my liking about Ancient Wisdom. Yes the yard are going well but so is the Haggas stable and I think SL is still improving. He’s by Sea The Stars who has sired the winner of this race 3 times in the past. My only concern is will he settle in such a small field stepping up in trip.
2.25 Electrolyte 5/2
Sticking with Wathnan racing for this race too.
6 of the last 8 winners ran at Royal Ascot with 4 winners coming from the Coventry, 3 of which were runner up in the Coventry which Electrolyte was (beaten a nose).
Both Whistlejacket and Electrolyte will be fine on the softer surface but whilst Whistlejacket isn’t technically a U.S. bred horse, him Sire is and no U.S. bred has ever won this race from 18 attempts so I’ll stick with my selection.
3.00 Imperial Guard 5/1
This horse was available at 12/1 yesterday morning but I left it for some reason which I’m still trying to work out. I did get 6/1 which is only slightly better than what he is now but at least its better.
Trainer (Andrew Balding) is the most successful trainer in the race having won it 4 times previously and the horses dam Sire is by Bated Breath who is the most successful Sire in the race. Would have preferred a double digit draw as 8 of the last 10 have won from a double digit draw. The 2 horses that won from a single figure draw happens to be from the the Balding stable but that’s just coincidence.
3.35 Hamish 1/1
Hard to find a case for anyone else in the race. Arrest will have his preferred ground but so does Hamish and is rated 3lbs higher than Arrest.
Also, Arrest, Time Lock and Outbox are all by Frankel who has yet to Sire the winner of the race albeit from a small sample size (0-6) but I would still like to see that he’s managed to Sire the winner before backing one of his and the Marco Botti yard is horribly out of form so can’t have Giavellotto either.
BOL