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Azuinthejungle was relatively well supported yesterday, meaning that we beat the closing line, though we didn’t collect, with the gelding running an OK race, without ever threatening.
| Musselburgh - 12:35 |
Travel Candy |
7/1 |
Wednesday’s Nap is another early one, with the first at Musselburgh the race in focus. The horse in question is Travel Candy, who I very much like the look of at early odds of 7/1.
The mount of Harry Russell drops back down to the minimum trip having run with credit over six furlongs last time out.
Profiteer is naturally well fancied in the early betting after his recent wins, but he’s hardly well handicapped at this point and is far from sure to successfully give weight away all round. As far as I’m concerned, his skinny odds allow something like Travel Candy to be a little generously priced.
Has the form to feature very prominently in a race such as this
Prior to her fourth over six furlongs at Redcar a week ago, the filly finished a close-up second over five furlongs at the same venue, staying on well to take the runner’s up spot, doing so in a race that contained more depth than this.
Far from out of place on softer ground, this filly, who is clearly well handicapped sitting 10 lbs below her last winning mark, won over five furlongs at Catterick last season, doing so from much higher in the weights. She’s also yet to finish outside of the top two over five furlongs on ground worse than good.
Brian Ellison is definitely a trainer well versed in successfully targeting races at Musselburgh, especially in recent times. During the current calendar year, he’s sent 19 horses to the Scottish venue, picking up four winners and five seconds. That’s a win strike rate of 21% and a win/place strike rate of 47%. Such numbers alone make 7/1 (12.5% implied probability) look on the large side.
Factor in her 50% strike rate at Class 6 level and ahead of a modest contest, this is a filly who looks worthy of support all the time 7/1 is on offer.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 58 Naps) has a running P/L of +£80.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
