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We ended September with two nice winners but October started out as miserable as the weather. We effectively only paid for 10% of our bets last month which will be hard to reproduce but hopefully we can bounce back quickly with three solid enough picks and one more riskier at the bottom.
Attacanter Racing
Bill's Baar 5/1 four places – 15.55 Catterick
George Scott's Sherbourne has just had two paragraphs deleted in favour of chancing this selection, from a trainer who has two win over the obstacles yesterday. He is a name that should be known by most by now and I thought his was likeable enough.
Bill's Baar is yet to win since gaining a rating, but it is still early day's, he isn't obviously well weighted at present but should be capable of making an impact now dropped into a Class 5 contest. The nose 2nd from the Class 4 at York looks fine enough, the 3rd and 4th have won since, the 5th and 6th have ran OK.
I've picked pictures of consistency before which have let us down but this one should remain competitive back down to 7f. The downhill course could well suit and the difficult conditions should be manageable given two 2nds on heavy.
As I finish writing, prices are gone, Sherbourne is now 11/2 whilst my selection is 5/1, annoying. Broken Spear is getting low in the weights but hopefully we'll catch him next time.
Rwenearlytheredad 7/1 four places – 14.55 Musselburgh
Declan Carroll's four-year-old has a relatively pleasing profile despite not adding to his three wins from last year in seven attempts so far.
His previous two efforts have been an upturn in form and now returned to the scene of his last win rated 4lbs lower, his potential warrants inclusion with an extra place adding some insurance.
Keep Me Stable was 2nd in that race by a neck, he's now 3lbs better off with the yard's stable apprentice – these connections had a decent 18 months for what they are.
The 4th last time at Ayr is acceptable enough to suggest we have place claims, Braes of Doune has been a consistent runner whilst the 2nd Sir Garfield won today.
There will be others in with equal if not greater chances but I am happy with this one, the trainer has done OK here over the years, 6 winners from 32 runners is 12th best since 2020. Grant Tuer has two here today, unfortunately one is in this race, his winrate is 25%
Hierarchy 6/1 – 15.45 Nottingham
Northern Spirit and Fantasy Master have been running well in decent races this season, they finished 2nd and 3rd in this last year, only losing to a decent Haggass horse, both of them won last time out which hopefully opens the door for a better treated runner to have an impact.
I was half tempted to go for more of a punt, there are a few to choose from but I am going to chance the standout female jockey of the last 12 months, Saffie Osbourne, despite the Millman yard having a winner yesterday,
There is an inspection in the morning but I wanted to have a crack at this race, I thought it looked quite safe to side with the selection given he's 6lbs lower than his last win, at this time last year and has shown signs of life recently.
Soft ground looks fine, it'll be a true run race and hopefully enough are faltering allowing us to pick up the pieces in what should be an easier finish than his trip to Hamilton. It's a Class 2 in name only, typically decent Class 4 winners are contesting it, it is a skinny enough selection but enough's been shown to be confident in a decent showing.
Tarbat Ness 11/1 four places- 15.23 Catterick
I have been on a few of John Berry's in races of this nature and that is what's drawn me to this one. Over C&D at this time last year, the selection finished 2nd twice, one on heavy which is expected on Wednesday.
He was soundly beaten both times but he was well clear of the third, he hasn't won for a year and is still 3lbs above that, from the bottom of the weights he should be able to have an impact in ideal conditions, he isn't overly liked from early market inspection but has less to prove than most.
John Berry has a ‘big name booking' in PJ McDonald but we'll hope that it's a spare, although SDS was booked last time. Gina Mangan is responsible for 6 of the yard's 8 winners this year, they shared a winner in a Class 4 event at Ripon on Saturday for today's owners. They're perhaps unlikely to get a 9th win today but we can hope we're readied enough to hit the frame although it looks as though the horse may continue to slide.
*Advised Bet – Eachway L15*
WHAT IS A LUCKY 15 BET?
A Lucky 15 bet consists of 15 unique bets, covering every possible combination that comes from backing four selections. The 15 bets are broken down like this:
– 1 fourfold accumulator
– 4 trebles, with each treble omitting one of your selections
– 6 doubles, again covering every possible combination
– 4 singles
The attraction of a Lucky 15 is that it offers many more ways to win than a standard accumulator. A Lucky 15 uses both your acca and your singles as well as producing trebles and doubles that reward you for correctly calling 2/4 or 3/4 of your selections. To cover the 15 separate bets, a Lucky 15 uses your stake 15 times. If you were to place £1 on a Lucky 15, you would be staking £15 in total across the various bets.
