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It was always a risk going against the eventual winner in yesterday's race, as she was the most likely winner if she stayed the trip.
It's a pain that she won, as I tipped her up earlier in the season, and she didn't manage to win, as she was in desperate need of the run. She has since won a couple of races, and yesterday's win was the most impressive victory she has had so far.
Moviddy jumped well apart from one mistake, where she corkscrewed the jump and lost a lot of momentum. That wasn't ideal, but the way the winner got the job done, it wouldn't have made a difference.
Wicked Thoughts 7/2 (1pt) – Taunton 3.45
At first glance, I liked the look of Gyenyame as I watched his last race and thought he was in good form. He is in good form, but I think he is prone to an improver, as are all of the others in this race.
Wicked Thoughts doesn't have great winning form from his win two runs ago, and was poor last time out, but he's unexposed, and more should be to come. It's quite evident that good ground, or something similar, is what works best for Wicked Thoughts. I think a few of the opposition also enjoy running on this type of ground, but they are far more exposed.
I thought Good Friday Fairy is better over a shorter trip. A Definite Getaway is making his return from last May, and doesn't look like he is ahead of the handicapper, and the same can be said about Morfee. I do think Ede'iffs Rock is a player in this, but this is a tougher race than he's used to winning, so he should struggle.
Wicked Thoughts is only having his third chase start for Paul Nicholls, and he returns with the yard finding their rhythm again. He has some strong pieces of form over hurdles. If he can progress further and match the form he showed when running well behind Moon Rocket & Newton Tornado over hurdles, he should still be ahead of the handicapper.
Shadowfax Of Rohan 11/10 (2pt) – Southwell 2.30
I'm not going to spend too long on this selection, as I think he should win and win cosily.
I tipped up Shadowfax Of Rohan last time out, and he was backed into around 1/2F (including a heavy rule 4), but was beaten by Marty McFly.
Despite the fact that he got beaten and had to settle for the runner-up spot, he jumped well and did little wrong in defeat. It turns out, the winner was still ahead of the handicapper and has since been a winning tip for the thread the other day at Carlisle.
That form is the best on offer, and even though he is a short price, he should be very tough to beat.
GambleAware
Naval Tribute 2.52 Lingfield Wednesday 2/1
Hi everyone. Hope everyone is well. Well done Cairnzy and Rizzle with their winner today. Lovely to see as always!
Little time to myself for a rare change so I’ll share my bet for tomorrow.
Naval Tribute for the James Owen yard. Last time out, at Kempton ,was actually the time this should have been backed. First time in a handicap, upped in trip, and the most significant indicator for us punters was the first time application of cheekpieces. This was gold for punters seeing those three factors.
I’m pretty sure anyone desperate enough to read anything I’ve ever highlighted on here will know this is a pointer that needs following. It’s been around 14 months or so now anything this yard sends out with first time head gear on you need to take a close look. I don’t have the stats to hand as I’m away from home but since last June the yard have around an unbelievable 30% strike rate with this trend. Winners, off the top of my head, Kilma 16-1 at Yarmouth, Goldymone 100/30 Newcastle, Little Miss India 11/2 Southwell, Naval Tribute ( last run) 9-1, and many more. Many are very well supported so prices for many have been much bigger the day before. It’s around 18 winners from a little over 50 runners.
Hopefully Cairnzy and Rizzle will have been highlighting these so I’m possibly wasting my time even posting this. And apologies if they were posting it also!
Tomorrow, at Lingfield, they’ve sent him up in trip once again which I’m certain should see more improvement, and the cheekpieces are back on. Only his 5th run tomorrow so this is a lightly raced five year old so he can surely defy the 3 lb rise. Really confident bet tomorrow. Have just kept to the 1 point win. Hard to get too excited at the odds considering the price we all got last time.
Another big factor for expecting a good run is Kieran Shoemark taking the ride. He has a very impressive 40% strike rate for this yard with 6 from 15. He has a very similar strike rate riding favourites as well, which he’s certainly going to be tomorrow.
All the best guys. Take care I’ll try to get on from time to time as it looks like there’s no other punters posted today so far. Hopefully me posting will encourage others with some useful pointers to post.
I’ll re post this tomorrow but if I forget can someone please do it as there’s useful bits there for punters whether the horse wins tomorrow or not