Cairnzy reached out on Sunday evening, offering to do Monday's Racing thread. It was well-timed, as I didn't fancy anything that day.
His runner had to settle for third place on his second start.
It was the right call to take on the favourite, who was sent off at odds of 5/6, but it was one of the larger priced horses who got the victory.
Mehmas Engine was a little keen in the early stages. The jockey asked him to go wide to make his effort, but didn't find much when they got into the straight. He might be one to have a go on again when he finds himself in handicap company.
Smokeringinthedark 9/4 (1pt) – Newcastle 4.00
I found that the horse who is likely to be on the best handicap mark in this race is Smokeringinthedark. The main problem with backing this horse is that he is very inconsistent, but I think that is because he is heavily reliant on his perfect ground.
His best runs have come on good to soft ground, and when he doesn't get that type of ground, his performance drops off. It's strange that he can't reproduce the same level of form on slightly worse or better ground, but if a horse has a liking for good to soft, then that's what they need to try and find him.
His penultimate run was a very good effort. He finished second in a Class 2 race at Musselburgh, won by Fasol. Bold Light was further down the field, and today, he gets a fairly large swing in the weights. That does give him a chance of flipping that form around, but I thought he was comfortably behind my selection on that day.
My fancy is the least exposed runner in the race, and we don't know what his ceiling is based on when he gets good to soft ground. There are some decent horses in this race, mainly aimed at Fingal's Hill, but that horse is high in the weights. Rare Edition would be a huge player if he were to bounce back to his novice form of a few years ago, but we've not seen that in a long time.
It's a concern that the yard isn't in good form. Nicky Richards has had no winners in the last fortnight, and my only fancy for yesterday was one of his runners at Ludlow. Considering that was a rare runner at that track, and he put in a poor display for the same owners of today's horse, it isn't ideal.
GambleAware