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We managed to land one winner yesterday, but it was a short-priced favourite and overall it was a below-par day.
The unraced Richard Fahey runner was well backed into favourite from 9/2 and won quite easily despite running green. My other selection Braes Of Doune was backed into favourite but could only manage second place. It was a honking ride in my opinion, the horse enjoys a good gallop which I mentioned was guaranteed but at least give your mount a chance. He was given far too much to do in the business end and it was a great effort by the horse to finish as close as he did.
Rizzel's first horse ran a stinker and hardly met a single fence on a good stride. His second horse managed to win, advised at 2/1 with a small Rule 4 in there. The best horse in the race probably didn't win, as the runner-up drifted to his right close to the line.
Cairnzy's Tips
Pfingstberg 3/1 – Wolverhampton 6.40
The quality of racing on offer is extremely poor on Tuesday and we are pretty much stuck with wide-open class 6 events, which is never ideal at the best of times.
My first selection comes in the shape of the David Simcock-trained Pfingstberg who shades favouritism at the time of writing at 3/1. More times than most in these class 6 events the field are normally all out of sorts but an exception can made for my selection Pfingstberg, who brings a consistent profile to this race with recent form figures this season of 3312.
He returned after a 227-day break with two solid efforts at Chelmsford on the AW, which saw him finish third on both occasions and not beaten far into third on either of those contests. The step up in trip from 1m6 to 2m has seemingly brought the better out of Pfingstberg, who got off the mark at Lingfield last month, winning eased down to win by 2 and a quarter lengths. Pfingstberg tends to be ridden prominently from the front and I'll be surprised if similar tactics aren't put in place for this contest as there doesn't seem to be any real pace angle in this field.
Pfingstberg could not follow up on the Lingfield success in his most recent outing at Newmarket last month. He was again ridden prominently by jockey Hayley Turner but was railed in by the eventual winner in the final furlong and was beaten by a neck towards the line. There was no shame in defeat last time out as the horse who won ( Red Force One ) arrived in good form, and was well handicapped going into that contest.
Flicka's Girl 12/1 EW – Lingfield 3.00
Flicka's Girl has drifted in the market quite significantly from her opening price of 8/1 and I'd normally scrap a selection and look elsewhere when seeing such a thing but I'm going to go with my gut and take a risk on her as I feel she's massively over priced at 12/1.
Flicka's Girl was an impressive winner on debut at Wolverhampton, winning with the minimum of fuss by just under 5L. She was soundly beaten on her following outing at Bath but took a massive step forward when finishing second in the Class 2 Chester’s Lily Agnes Stakes, finishing just under 2L behind the winner. She was then thrown in the deep end in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, finishing last of a 24 runner field. She was sent off at 100/1 at Royal Ascot and realistically she never stood a chance at that level.
You can draw a line through her most recent outing at Chester, which saw her finish last of 9. She was badly hampered at the start of that contest and her chances of winning were over before they even began. Flicka's Girl makes her handicap debut on the AW of a mark of 75 which I feel could be underestimating her ability in this contest.
Rizzel's Tips
Trojan Sun 7/2 – Musselburgh 4.50
I am more than happy to take on the exposed older horses with the Jim Goldie trained Trojan Sun.
Trojan Sun is very lightly raced compared to the others in this race, which doesn't automatically mean he is going to win or is better than them, but you'd like to think that he has improvement off his low mark of 57 on just his second starts in a handicap, and also his second run over 2m. He has already finished ahead of Sea Master in his last race and finished ahead of him by 2L and Lord Torranga was a further neck behind in fourth, and that reads well when seeing the distances he was behind others in this race.
Trojan Sun is effectively running off a 5lb higher mark as Paul Mulrennan is taking over from Amie Waugh who claimed 5lbs last time out. The jockey booking of Mulrennan is a positive one, as he is definitely the main rider for Jim Goldie and accumulates most of the yards wins.
It's nice to see that this lad has course form over this far, and given how he was positioned last time, I'd imagine Paul will try and have him closer to the pace than Amie did as he was towards the rear and did his best work late in the race. Now they know he stays the trip, I'd imagine a different set of tactics will be employed. The opposition in this race doesn't concern me, as the level of form they have shown as a collective is poor. Achnamara landed a win for the first time since October 2022 off a reduced mark, and he is likely the horse to beat, but he has gone up 3lbs in the handicap and Joe Fanning takes over from Aidan Brookes who claimed 3lbs, so is 6lb worse off for this race, and I think that will be difficult to do against a lightly raced horse who ran well on his first start over the trip.
Cash The Cheque 5/1 – Ballinrobe 6.53
With Jack Kennedy back in the saddle after another injury, and already getting a winner on his first start this season, I'd imagine that Ankud will be very strong in the betting and go off shorter than the 2/1 which is on offer at the time of writing. Despite Jack being a huge positive for that horse, I can't help but think Cash The Cheque is a player in this race.
Since moving to Brendan Walsh's stable, Cash The Cheque has run two very nice races, which has seen her win on stable debut and then finish fifth in an eighteen-runner handicap, which looks like strong form for the grade. The last Tipperary race looks solid as the horses in behind the winner were arriving in good form, and though not many horses have run to prove the form, the runner-up has finished second and did well to finish in that spot as he jumped like a snooker table. On that occasion and the time before at the same track when Cash The Cheque beat an odds-on McManus horse, she has been outpaced turning for home, so the slight step up in trip could bring out further improvement. She has raced over similar trips on a couple of occasions for her previous yard, and when she did, she put in her best performances, and with Brendan clearly eeking out improvement in her from her first two runs for him, there looks to be more to come now trying a longer trip.
The Gigginstown favourite won after a 200+ day layoff and beat a horse called Golden Sandbanks. That horse finished 13th in the Tipperary race Cash The Cheque finished 5th. Obviously, horse form doesn't always work out how you expect, but there were no real reasons as to why Golden Banks ran so poorly that day, and he was 25/1 that day, so given how close he got to the favourite, I think you've got to take him on off a 8lb higher mark.
Kilashee 3/1 7.23 Ballinrobe NAP
BOL
Fatal Flaw 7/4 5.20 Ballinrobe NB
Well done with the nap . That’s how it’s done ?
Cheers Daz
Dillydingdillydong 6.10 Wolverhampton 9/4
Few hopefully useful stats for everyone to pick through from my bet today…
James Owen is a master at turning around lowly rated horses from other yards. A perfect example is Destinando who was rated 46 at the beginning of the year. He is now rated 70, and was as high as 73 after winning 6 times for the yard. Destinando has the same as this runner today.
Dillydingdillydong was rated almost identically as Destinando when they got him in April, on 46. He has been rated as high as 74. Really well bred, had shown he possess ability on debut when finishing 3rd. That race went on to throw up a lot of winners, the winner went onto win a Group 2. Obviously had problems with injuries and just not showing his true ability but James Owen seems to have worked his magic. Stepping him up to 1 m 4 f seems to be the key. He won very easily over todays course and distance in a classified race 2 weeks ago. Then beaten a neck in a handicap last week over 1 m 3 f when he was staying on in the final furlong.
Back at Wolverhampton over this 1 m 4 f today. Silvestre De Sousa booked. He has ridden him twice before when with Richard Hannon.
Yard have a decent 19% strike rate with their older horses on the AW this season.
2 of the last 3 runners from the yard have been winners. 3 from the last 6 runners at the track have been winners.
Yard have an eye catching 35% strike rate at the track with 7 wins from 20.
Have went with a 1.5 point stake on this at 3/1 . Still 9/4 available. Very confident bet today.
All the best everyone for today and rest of the week.
Destinando has the same owners as this runner today. ***
Carizzel tips
take your place 11.30 vall nap well done all winners yesterday
Albegone 3.45m 12-1 ☘️☘️gl all
beyond the horizon 12.05 ew vall well done all winners yesterday
storm ahead 12.40 vall NB
wonderouse ways 2.45
Sombrero 4-18 Dieppe ??.
100-30 bet365.
Best today’s favourite the good man recently over today’s distance and gets a 5 pound pull in the weights off that too.
Don’t mean a thing but that’s the theory ?
Tippy tipppzzzz ??
8 shots at goal zero executed ! ?
Hang on tell a lie 1 executed just need the other executed now ?
island mcoo 7.25 ew
Glory call !!! You know I was on that one ??