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Having been tipped at 4/1, Mereside Diva was well supported yesterday, going off as the 9/4 favourite, so we were ahead of the curve in that sense. Unfortunately, beating the closing line was the only achievement as the filly finished fourth having never really threatened to win.
| Yarmouth - 15:45 |
Little Miss India |
5/1 |
On Tuesday, I’m interested in the 15:45 at Yarmouth, a Class 6 handicap over ten furlongs, ahead of which, Little Miss India catches the eye at early odds of 5/1.
Second in a better race over this trip at Sandown last time out, the three-year-old has done enough, at least in my value-seeking eyes, to be a shorter price than 5/1, especially given the less than impressive credentials of those currently ahead of her in the early market.
Has a less demanding assignment here
Far from the deepest field, one of the key things I’m drawn to here is the fact that Ian Williams’ runner has been keeping better company than this. Not only that, but her opponents here have all been running in races of this nature. Whereas this is definitely a step down for the mount of Rossa Ryan. This should not be ignored.
Last time out, she finished behind a 67-rated winner, while the horses in third, fourth, fifth and six were rated 65, 69, 72 and 72. These waters are clearly calmer. Racing from a mark of 61, she’s the second highest-rated runner here.
I also like the form of her effort at Leicester on good-to-soft back in July. On that occasion, she finished fifth (of 13) in a competitive novice race over this trip. The four horses to finish in front of her that day have all gone on to be rated much, much higher than anything in this race, with three of those four winning since. The horse she beat into sixth has since won a better race than this from a mark of 70.
As I’ve suggested above, the filly performed with credit on good-to-soft, so I’m going to trust that she’ll handle soft. I may be wrong, but given the other positives and the odds on offer, that’s a chance I’m willing to take.
Last but certainly not least, I very much like the booking of Rossa Ryan, who in the last year has a 50% strike rate for Ian Williams, who clearly turns to the top jockey when he really fancies one.
All in all, too many boxes are being ticked here for 5/1 not to go down as a value price. Such odds should definitely be taken.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£20.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
