Saturday’s Nap went close, but not quite close enough, with Maids Head being well supported before running a decent race to finish second.
Hopefully a new week sparks a turnaround of fortunes in terms of results.
| Hexham - 14:20 |
Final Edgar |
17/2 |
Ahead of Tuesday’s action, I’m quite interested in the opener at Hexham. Final Edgar catches the eye, and as I write this on Monday evening, odds of 17/2 look a little too large for my liking.
No win since shedding his maiden tag at Sedgefield back in February of last year, the relatively lightly-raced gelding has gone close on a few occasions, while he’s trickled down the weights to what may just be a lenient mark based on the pick of his form.
Trainer has a record to note at this venue
Are trainer records the most important thing? Almost certainly not. However, eye-catching trainer records shouldn’t readily be ignored either. Mark Walford definitely has an eye-catching record at Hexham.
In the last 12 months, Walford has won with nearly 20% of his Hexham runners. Over his career, he’s won with a little more than 20% of his runners at the Northumberland track.
Narrowing the search further, in the five seasons prior to this one, with male horses aged eight or younger, as this fella is, Walford had a very notable strike rate of 39.13%. This stat alone makes odds of 17/2 (= 10.5% implied probability) look rather chunky.
Not only does Walford have a record to note here, but Final Edgar has delivered a couple of efforts that suggest he’s worthy of slightly shorter odds ahead of a race such as this.
The gelding finished a close-up second over a similar trip at Carlisle last year, while he also finished second at Sedgefield and third at Perth. For each of those three efforts, he was rated 112. He’s now rated 103 and in a lesser race.
Moreover, back in late January, we saw the seven-year-old go very close over a slightly lesser trip at Carlisle, where he was beaten by just a head, finishing second (of 12) from today’s rating. A reproduction of that sort of form in what is absolutely a less demanding contest would surely see him go much closer than the early odds would have us believe.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 105 Naps) has a running P/L of -£68.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
February 2025 = +£20.00
GambleAware