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Very rarely do I feel a horse is not going to win after jumping the first when being the subject of a big gamble, but that's how I felt with Union Avenue.
Something didn't seem right with Union Avenue from the start.
We got a head-on camera at the start of the race, and he looked all over the place. It sounded like there was a strong headwind at Hexham, which definitely played a part in his weakening quickly.
He was leading, and when you're giving every other horse a streamline, it's not the correct tactic. However, he looked like he was using the wrong front leg to travel, and it just seemed off. Given he went off at EVS and was backed in from 11/2, they must've been very confident.
On the back of that, I'll be prepared to give him another try in the future.
The other runner on the day refused to race. Hopefully, your bookmaker gave you your money back, in free bets at the very least.
Malfoy Manor 5/2 (1pt) – Warwick 2.55
There are a fair few chasers in this race that I've backed over the last couple of years, so it wouldn't surprise me if one of them comes back to haunt me.
I am taking a bit of a risk giving Malfoy Manor a chance, as he wasn't great on his stable/chasing debut last time out, but he's in very good hands.
Dan Skelton can work wonders with horses like this. Horses that are unexposed and low-rated in the handicaps are Dan Skelton's bread and butter.
I thought it was interesting that they are coming up to three miles after he struggled last time out with his wind. He has since had a wind-op, and they have opted for a tongue tie. Both of these should give him a much better chance of seeing his races out.
He is unknown over this trip, apart from his PTP runs, but confidence must be high that they are sticking him up to this trip on the back of the wind-op.
Below The Radar 11/4 (1pt) – Taunton 2.05
There are many safer options than chasing debutante Below The Radar, but I will always go with a horse that could progress further over the safer option.
Below The Radar would have been set chasing as his target this season, so I don't think you can look negatively at his comeback run over hurdles.
Whenever a horse makes a return over hurdles and then goes straight over fences, you know for a fact that it was a fitness run. In all fairness, his run in a Class 2 handicap hurdle was a solid effort in a competitive race.
This lad has a chasing pedigree, and with the Nicholls yard in better form now, I think you've got to give him a solid chance off a decent enough handicap mark.
GambleAware