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It's fair to say I got it completely wrong with It's Maisy, and she should have been overlooked at the prices.
I was never comfortable with how she was going throughout the race, despite not coming under pressure. It just seemed that the jockey was never happy on her, and she weakened very quickly.
When a horse has the stamina edge of the field, and is dropping down in trip, the last thing you expect to see is them tiring. I can understand them lacking the pace and being outsprinted, but the horse finished legless and went backwards rapidly.
The other horse on the day, Love Me, was given no chance by the rider. Every jockey in the race, except for the front two, got it completely wrong.
The front two went off 15+ lengths ahead of the third (Love Me), and they weren't to be seen again. The jockeys in behind got the speed totally wrong, and it's a shame, as Love Me did stick it out. Even if she were closer, she wasn't going to beat the winner, who is progressive.
Move With The Beat 7/2 (1pt) – Hereford 3.05
A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that I would not be touching another Christian Williams for the foreseeable future. It's too hard to know when you're on a horse with a chance with that yard, and he has the favourite in this race.
Knowing how Christian lines his horses up for successive wins from low handicap marks, it wouldn't be a surprise if his horse were to win again. However, his horse is going up in trip, and it's not guaranteed that he'll enjoy it like he did over two miles last time out.
There is a fair amount of pace in this race, so he's going to need a fair bit of stamina if he were to win.
Move With The Beat was my play against the favourite, and I thought he put in a nice effort on stable debut over three miles at Exeter last time out.
There were five fences omitted at Exeter, and when that happens, the race often turns into more of a stamina test than if the fences remain. On his comeback from a layoff, that wasn't ideal, and he got tired late on. But he jumped well over the fences, and this drop in trip might be beneficial.
The winner from the Exeter race has won again since, and I think the others in and around the places will win races over the next few months.
Union Avenue 11/2 (1pt) – Hexham 1.25
Since the start of the year, I've always said I was going to stick to my gut instinct as it has cost me from tipping up winners in the past. So with that said, from a huge layoff, I'm giving a chance to Union Avenue on its hurdling debut.
James Moffatt is a cracking trainer based in Cumbria. He does extremely well with the limited ammunition he has, and despite him starting the season off slower than usual, I think he has a smart horse on his hands with Union Avenue.
Whether or not Union Avenue will be winning first time out this season, I'm not sure, but that's due to fitness.
However, if he is ready to fire first time out and is good over his hurdles, he is a very big price in this race.
It's an interesting race, as we have Tashkhan also making his hurdling debut. That horse brings good flat form to the table, and if he transitions nicely he is a big player. The problem with that horse is that his flat form has tailed off massively, and he isn't the same horse he used to be.
Union Avenue was a useful bumper horse, winning twice and running nicely in a Listed race before finishing middle of the pack in a Grade 1 at Aintree.
Based on his bumper form, we know he's a smart horse, and we know he handles the soft ground.
GambleAware