Thursday’s Racing Tips – Today could be the day for Racingbreaks Ryder at Windsor

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Nascimento was a nice winner on Wednesday, winning at advised odds of 5/2. The horse drifted out to 4/1 before the off. If you got the best odds guaranteed on that one then you'll be twice as happy with the result.

My other selection Orbaan was never really involved throughout his race. I don't think Danny Tudhope did much wrong on him, and it was a case of the horse just not showing up on the day.

Both of Rizzel's selections were underwhelming, In particular Sakti who couldn't land a blow when laying down her effort. She had to be taken wide before challenging the leaders but she didn't pick up as expected and ultimately it was a disappointing run. Sea Of Roses was also disappointing however the race was won by a 50/1 shot, who on paper stood no chance… that's racing for you!

Cairnzy's Tips

Racingbreaks Ryder 15/2 EW – Windsor 7.00

Here I am again going back on my word on that ‘ I'm not backing that horse again' phrase that I tend to throw about now and again, but I'll give Racingbreaks Ryder another chance here on the back of his encouraging run at Goodwood two weeks ago. To quickly touch on the Goodwood run, I thought it was a cracking effort. My selection was only beaten by just over one length to Blue Prince, who had been knocking at the door in his runs prior and was a well-handicapped horse. Billyjoh who was only a quarter of a length ahead of Racingbreaks Ryder in second is rated in the mid-90s and was sent off favourite for that contest at 4/1.

There's no doubt that connections will be extremely frustrated with this one, as he's proved that he's well up to winning of his current mark. He's definitely a horse who needs things to fall correctly for him in running, and tipping him up at Windsor will come with its risks as it can tend to favour front runners who dictate from start to finish. With that said, if there's a pace collapse up top and things fall apart from the front then his hold-up tactics will be of a benefit and he's more than capable on his day of picking up the pieces in the business end. My selection is drawn in stall 13, which will allow him to fall back of the pace and find cover. Furthermore, this step back up in trip to 1m looks a good move if going by the fact he stayed on strongly at Goodwood last time out, suggesting he had more left in the tank.

Bet365 are offering 4 places for this race so I've opted to go each-way at 15/2 which looks like a smart enough move given it's a competitive enough affair.

Lieber Power 10/3 – Windsor 6.30

These racing league races are ultra competitive and more times than most are hard to find the winners in but I fancy the chances of Andrew Balding's Lieber Power who did extremely well to peg back the progressive Walter Hartright at Chepstow last time out. Walter Hartright was actually tipped by myself on the thread to win that race and it was heartbreaking to watch Lieber Power eat up ground in the manner he did to deny my selection the five timer.

Lieber Power looks like a horse who could stay further in time but he's turned a corner for connections since being upped to this sort of distance with two wins and runner-up effort from his last three outings. A 5lb penalty for his recent Chepstow win asks more of him but he arrives here in great form and I don't think he's in the hands of the handicapper just yet. I expect Oisin Murphy to sit of the pace in this contest and pick up the pieces as they go for home.

From the remainder, Galactic Charm is of interest and he's fancied in the market as he shades favouritism at 5/2. He's in receipt of weight in the contest, however, this represents a significant hike in class from a class 5 to a class 6 and he also shoulders a 6lb penalty for his recent 5L victory. Believe The Stars for Sir Michael Stoute was another that I looked at, that one is lightly raced and looks interesting upped in trip under jockey Hayley Turner.

Rizzel's Tips

Sahara Dancer 10/3 – Chepstow 2.45

I know backing unraced juveniles isn't for everyone and might appear to be a foolish move, but when there is a field which doesn't appear to have an above-average horse, I think you can often take a chance on an unraced 2-year-old to come in and do the business.

Generally, for this to work the horse you are backing has to have a good pedigree and come from a yard who knows what they're doing with their younger horses, and I think Sahara Dancer fits both of those. Archie Watson sends a couple for this race, but Hollie Doyle in on board the newcomer Sahara Dancer and it's not a surprise to see her swerve the ride on the other Watson horse who was fifth on debut. Sahara Dancer is by Sands Of Mali who was a very good juvenile when he was racing back in 2017. He managed to win the Gimcrack (Group 2) and then continued his form into his 3-year-old campaign by winning the Group 1 on Champions Day at Ascot. This is his first crop of juveniles as a Sire and he seems to be plodding along nicely and has already produced a Royal Ascot winner.

Sahara Dancer is related to Rhythm N Hooves who is also with the Watson stable and he made a nice start to his career, albeit as a 3-year-old, but he managed to win at Royal Ascot in a 5f handicap, so it shows there's a good pedigree with the Archie Watson debutante and plenty of speed to boot.

The stats for when Archie sends his runners to this track are impressive. He has been operating at a 20% for all of his age groups at this track, but when you whittle it down to his 2-year-olds, it gets extremely good. In the last five years, he has been operating at a 31% which has produced a +£22.21 to £1 level stakes. He is also 2/3 at the track this year with the same age group.

Flight 11/4 – Salisbury 3.35

For my second selection on Thursday, I am going with another juvenile runner.

Flight from the Ollie Sangster yard is my fancy for this £20k pot to the winner Class 2 event which is full of your typical unexposed 2-year-olds, with the noticeable appearance of a rare Salisbury runner from the Aidan O'Brien yard. Instantly, the eye will be drawn to the Aidan runner as it's odd to see him sending over a runner to this track during the middle of the week. I'm putting this up just after his other runner at Salisbury on Wednesday has just run and that horse came last of three, so it does go to show that you can take his horses on even though on pedigree and on pure reputation on the yard it can be a risky and daunting task.

I am a big fan of the Flight form from her Newmarket run last time out just over a month ago. I recently stated how strong I thought it would work out in the future when I put up Duty First at Ayr the other day, who ran out a very comfortable winner for the Archie Watson stable. Duty First was back in fourth from the Newmarket race and Flight was in second. The third-placed horse, Bintabuha also runs in this race but has at least two lengths to find with my selection and I think that might be a tad difficult, even with natural progression from these younger horses.

Flight has been well-fancied on both of her starts to date. She was 13/8 on debut and was 2/1F last time out when she bumped into a very smart-looking horse from the Godolphin yard who has since confirmed that promise when carrying a penalty in a novice event at the same track. Ollie Sangster is a very good up-and-coming trainer who is doing very well with his juveniles, proven by his horse Simmering who was second at Royal Ascot and then won a Group 3 at the same track last time out. The fact that connections have been strong in the market with Flight suggests she is stacking up well to his Ollie's good horses at home, and given her pedigree you'd like to think that this extra furlong will suit her.

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