Small Fry gave it a good go to try and reel in the winner in the Geelong Cup, but didn't have enough time.
The winner was making his first start in Australia after being sold out of the Gosden yard, and was previously owned by the King. He benefitted by being slightly closer to the leader, and Small Fry was catching him with every yard, but the trip was a little too short. I think he has a superb chance in the Melbourne Cup, as long as he doesn't get butchered by the draw.
Luna Celeste ran her usual solid race, and I thought she showed her versatility on the soft ground. The winner has clearly turned a corner and is in great form.
Sir Carnegie 5/2 – Carlisle 2.27
Running off a very low weight and having been consistent throughout the summer, it made perfect sense to back Sir Carnegie for today's contest.
You'd have to say that Dare To Shout is the best handicapper in the race, but he has to prove that he can still make winning returns at the age of nine. Apart from Dare To Shout, Sir Carnegie sits on the best handicap mark. He is running off a mark of 104, but Shane Fenelon removes 5 lbs, and that puts him below his last winning mark of 101.
Not only is his handicap mark now below his last winning mark, but he will be carrying 9st 11lbs which is a lot lower than his nearest rival and the main two rivals in the market carry 11st 6lbs and 12st. Breizh River does stay this far, but carrying 12st makes it difficult and the other two horses in the market aren't on the best of handicap marks, which made me fairly confident that Mickey Bowen's horse was the one to be on.
Burdett Road 5/1 – Carlisle 4.12
If we were deep into the jumps season, I think you would have to be barmy to back against Golden Ace. However, it's the start of the season, and based on how badly the favourite was on her first run last year at Wetherby, I'm inclined to take her on.
Rubaud will love the conditions at Carlisle, but I wasn't convinced by his performances last year and he is carrying 11st 8lbs against some decent horses. Wilful is the interesting horse in the race, who might be up to improving a lot this year. He won the County Hurdle last season and put in good performances elsewhere, but he might need the run. That left me believing that Burdett Road had a solid chance at good odds.
Burdett Road was a good hurdler when he first transitioned across, but he was then aimed at flat race targets. He didn't cover himself in a lot of glory during the summer, but his run in the Ebor was a good effort, and we know that he will be the fittest horse in the race. He was only a length behind Rubaud last year when that pair met in a Listed race around Kempton, and he gets further weight off him this time around. 5/1 seems a fair price, and I'm a big fan of the trainer.
GambleAware