After some solid days in the last week, yesterday was horrendous.
It started off alright, even though Miss Kodi didn't get a place. She missed the top three by a length or so. From that point, it went south, and very quickly.
Believed was backed into 6/5F, which was a very big gamble from the 3/1 she was tipped up at. I cannot believe the ride Ben Coen gave her. Why he decided to go three wide around the bend, when he could have gone closer to the rail, I'll never know. She was keen in the early stages, and I'm baffled she didn't run better.
Point Lynas 2/1 (2pt) – Pontefract 4.00
For the last 24 hours I have waited to see if Holloway Boy's price was going to drift larger than odds-on, but it never came. I was going to look elsewhere, but when I looked more into it, Point Lynas could easily win this.
At first, I thought the form of Holloway Boy was going to be too much for Point Lynas, but when you realise he rarely wins, I think you've got to take him on. Holloway Boy seems best at Ascot. He won at that track on his debut at Royal Ascot a few years ago, and last time out in a Group 2 he finished a good second. That piece of form entitles him to be the price he is, but away from Ascot poses different questions.
Point Lynas won this race last year, and did it with ease. He is a very dangerous horse when they let him get an easy lead and let him go the pace he wants. In a race with a field size like this, there's every opportunity for him to carry on where he left off twelve months ago.
He has only had one run in Britain this season, and that was in a handicap. He didn't run too badly, but I think he is better suited in races like this, and given that was his first run in a couple of months, fitness must've been an issue. This race has clearly been a target for him, so you better believe he'll be tuned up to 110%, which makes the 2/1 a good price. Apart from Holloway Boy, it's hard to give a chance to the others, including Cerulean Bay, who is a solid handicapper.
Callum Rodriguez tends to ride a lot more down south these days, and Edward Bethell has used other jockeys, but he has ensured Callum is booked for this, as they have a good relationship.
There will be no Lucky 15 on Sunday. There's simply not enough racing on, nor are there enough horses I like the look of.
GambleAware