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Not Just Yet lived up to his name at Wolverhampton yesterday, getting going far too late to ever land a blow. Onto Sunday.
| Kempton - 17:10 |
Stanley Pincombe |
11/1 |
I’m focusing on the final race at Kempton today, a Class 4 hurdle over two miles and five furlongs. I’m going to start by saying that the early market is all about Far Sight, who made a winning return to action three days ago. He’s now a big favourite here, but I’m not entirely convinced he’ll take up his place, and if he is pulled, the marketis naturally going to take a very different shape.
For now, that runner is in, and his very short price allows Stanley Pincombe to be priced at a chunky 11/1, which as far as I’m concerned is far too big.
No stranger to winning second time out after a lay-off
Chris Gordon’s runner, who has won on both good ground and good-to-soft, won second time out after a break not once but twice during 2023, which is a positive sign given that this is his second run following a recent break of 153 days.
Moreover, the gelding returned to post a decent effort at Fontwell last time out, finishing third over a lesser trip, running as if this step back up in distance would suit.
After all, this is a horse who won well over an extended two miles and four furlongs at Plumpton around this time last year, so today’s distance should be no problem.
It’s also worth mentioning that his recent third at Fontwell came in a slightly stronger race than this. At the very least, that contest contained more strength in depth. With the step up in trip and extra fitness in favour here, it’s not difficult to see him stepping forward.
This horse also ran well in a better race than this at Taunton in April, while Gordon is a trainer that not only does reasonably well at Kempton, but he also does quite well when putting son and claimer Freddie Gordon in the saddle. The only other time that Freddie Gordon has ridden this horse yielded a victory.
As I’ve said above, the price will all hinge on Far Sight taking up his place, but as things stand he’s due to do that. Even if he does run, I’d question whether Far Sight can give weight away all round and win just three days after his latest effort, so don’t be surprised if Stanley Pincombe, who is generously priced in my book, features very prominently.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is -£30.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
