Saturday’s Racing Tips – Shadow Of Light can upset the applecart at Newbury

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We were left with only two selections on Friday as my sole selection was announced as a non-runner during the day. Rizz ensured we ended the day in profit with Caballo De Mar running out a nice winner at advised odds of 4/1.  

Callum Shepard gave Caballo De Mar a proper good ride in the finale, and he's starting to become a real favourite of ours in the jockey world. If he continues to ride like he has been doing, then surely it's only a matter of time before he lands a top spot in one of the bigger stables.

Frost Of Dawn plugged on without looking dangerous and looked in need of the run given she had only been seen the one time this season. She wasn't beaten far in the end, and she could be worth another chance next time given she takes a step forward for the outing.

Cairnzy's Tips

Shadow Of Light 5/2 – Newbury 3.15

For my sole selection on Saturday, I've gone for a play in the competitive renewal of the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes.

The current market leader, Powerful Glory from the Richard Fahey stable, has generated significant hype coming into this race and it's understandable given his impressive debut victory at Pontefract last month, where he dominated his rivals by over 5 lengths. However, I've concerns over the form of his debut run and I feel it may not be as strong as it initially appeared. The second-placed horse, Sands Of Indi, was soundly beaten by over 6 lengths in a Class 5 race, and most of the remainder of the field have also been comfortably beaten in their subsequent outings. While Powerful Glory's debut was visually impressive to the eye, the depth of the race he won may not be as substantial as the margin of victory would suggest, and at 2/1 I feel he can be taken on in this race.

The horse I like is Shadow Of Light for trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey William Buick. Charlie Appleby's youngster has done little wrong in his three career runs and there could be well more to come from him of a mark of 108. He won with the minimum of fuss on debut at Yarmouth before taking a further step forward to win again at Newmarket by 2L. Shadow Of Light is seemingly held in some regard by Charlie Appleby as he was then pitched into the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes in his most recent outing, which saw him finish three-quarters of a length down in second behind the winner Cool Hoof Luke. The Gimcrack Stakes form is by far the best on offer with the third-placed horse coming out and winning a Group 3 in his following outing ( Symbol Of Strength reopposes here ) while the fourth-placed horse Big Mojo had already won at Group level previously and has since finished a good second behind the well regarded Aesterius.

Rizzel's Tips

Alfa Kellenic 11/2 – Ayr 2.25

It's not normally my go-to tactic to have the favourite in a competitive handicap like the Ayr Silver Cup, but I really do like Alfa Kellenic and I think she is a filly who is still progressing, so 11/2 is more than fair.

Craig Lidster's fastly improving filly has been tremendous for connections this year and has gone from being rated 70 at the start of the turf season to now being rated 93. She is a horse who will relish the strong gallop in this race as she stays on strongly in her races, as we've seen from her C&D win in the Gold Cup trial in July and then staying on strongly over 7f in a £52k handicap at York a month ago. She has a 5lb penalty for that win at York, but 3lbs of that is negated by William Pyle who is a regular rider for Craig Lidster and has had a decent season so far with 18 winners at a strike rate of 11%.

The form of her most recent run at York has been franked by a couple of the runners in behind. The runner-up has since finished third in a Group 3 and the fourth was second in the same Group 3 at Doncaster, both producing much better RPRs than their ratings, so fair to say that Alfa Kellenic beat some well-handicapped horses from that York race. I think being drawn high is the place to be, similar to the Gold Cup, so her stall of 22 looks to be ideal. Obviously, this isn't going to be an easy race as you've got plenty of hardy old handicappers who have been around the block and are running off reduced handicap marks like Summerghand who is an old favourite of mine.

Billyjoh 14/1 EW Four places – Ayr 3.35

With the amount of pace in this race, I think it could be wise going for a horse who can stay slightly further but also has the pace to go the gallop, and that's how I landed on BillyJoh for the Ayr Gold Cup.

In recent years it has been won by horses drawn towards the middle or high numbers, and I think the winner will come from those types of stalls again today. There is a lot of pace, predominantly from the high stalls with the likes of Silky Wilkie, Jordan Electrics, and Lethal Levi to name a few who like to go from the front and set a strong pace. Billyjoh has been drawn in stall 18 so should get a lovely target to aim at for the entire race, and with those who set the pace should be able to drag him into the final furlong where he can hopefully mount his challenge and go past. Having the pace advantage in big field sprint races is key. We saw it with last weekend's Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh which saw Bradsell win another Group 1, but was favourably drawn next to the strong pace, whereas his main market rival was on the other side and had a lot of catching up to do when the race got into the final furlongs.

Billyjoh has shown that he is capable of running big races in big field handicaps, with some very good efforts produced this season at the big meetings. He has been second at Royal Ascot, been placed in the Steward's Cup and has been placed in other good races along the way. He hasn't managed to get his head in front since February, but he's had some hard luck stories in there. He often finds trouble in running but tends to run well despite suffering the interference. He stays 7f as we saw at Royal Ascot, but he has the pace to stay with the others if they go a good gallop as he was perfectly fine with the 6f on fast ground at Goodwood. I think he is more than capable of running a big race and hitting the frame at the very least, as long as he doesn't get impeded.

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