I was never confident that Tom Desjy was going to get the job done based on how he looked in running, but he did better than I thought.
When tipping him up, I was confident that he was going to be well-ahead of the handicapper. The opposition wasn't that strong, and they were exposed chasers, so to see him struggle is a big shock.
Tom Desjy was on and off the bridle, and the jockey never looked happy with him. He was staying on when they turned for home, but never looked like he was going to get to the eventual runner-up. He made a shuddering mistake late in the race, which gave him no chance. If that didn't happen, who knows what would have happened?
The eventual winner must have traded very short in running as he was at least eight lengths behind when jumping the last, but he powered home to win just before the line.
Mermaids Cave 5/1 (1pt) – Uttoxeter 2.35
I was interested in the top weight trained by Nicky Henderson, but her profile is very in and out. I don't know much about the 7lb claiming jockey in the saddle, and not seeing Nico isn't very inspiring. At the prices and on a falling handicap mark, Mermaids Cove was the stand out for this race.
My selection started the season as a 122-rated hurdler, but she has seen her rating fall to 113. She has previously won off 115 under Alex Chadwick in a similar event last May at Huntingdon, so we know that she has the ability to win off this mark.
Her form has been okay for the last few starts, with the nearest chance of winning coming last time out in a claiming hurdle at Catterick. That was over two miles, which is a trip I think is too short for her. She was staying on at the finish, so the return to a longer trip should be better suited.
There are a few in this race who are less exposed, those being Blue Marvel & No No Fizz. The latter arrives with a recent win in a similar race, but her handicap mark has gone up as a result. I don't think the form is anything to go crazy about, so I think it's best to take her on. Blue Marvel was backed into favourite on her handicap debut last time out, but was only good enough to finish in third. Money will likely be strong on her again, but based on what we've seen, she can't be backed.
I would love to get involved in the flat racing, but it's far too risky at this time of the year, when horses are making their returns. There are a couple I like, but I'll keep them to the Lucky 15 thread.
GambleAware