River Run Free continues to run rent-free in my head.
That's the second time I've tipped him up, and the second time he has been atrocious. I honestly cannot believe the run he put in on Friday, especially at Leicester, where he was brilliant the last time he was at this venue.
He was backed in from 15/8 into odds on, and was beaten after three furlongs. This game really does make you confused.
Spring Serenade drifted out to 22/1 from 5/1 and also ran a stinker. She was pulled up, and it looked quite premature by a jockey who didn't have an idea on what to do. He positioned her weird throughout the race, then rushed her up the inside before turning for home, then instantly pulled her up.
Invincible Nao 9/1 (1pt) – Sandown 3.35
It will definitely feel like Groundhog Day for many who read this daily when they see Invincible Nao being tipped up once again.
I've tipped him up two or three times this season so far, and I'm fairly confident on the back of his last effort, so I said I wouldn't tip him again. However, the more I think about it, I think he isn't capable of mixing it in a Class 1 handicap race, and will definitely feel more at home against weaker horses.
The runs before that run at Ascot last time out were good efforts, and it shows that when he can put it all together and get everything in his favour, he can win.
I am positive that three miles is his ideal trip, and given he has already won at this track once this season, and has run well on his other trip, he has to be given another chance.
The one I am most concerned about is Nicky Henderson's runner, who is 1/1 over fences and is unexposed as a chaser. We haven't seen him for a little while, which would be concerning if you were a supporter of his. Normally, when a horse wins on their chasing debut off a relatively low handicap mark, connections will want to take advantage of their good form and go for another.
Just Over Land 5/1 (1pt) – Sandown 4.10
This time tomorrow, we could be saying it was obvious that Mr Hope Street was on a very good handicap mark, and odds of 7/4 were massive. He has a good piece of form if you take it on face value, finishing a few lengths behind The Jukebox Man and Iroko. I've seen this before, and they don't always prove to be on good handicap marks, and are flattered.
I'm going to stick to an old friend of mine, Just Over Land, who has won me twice this season. He shouldn't have won at Fontwell, as he was hugely inconvenienced by a faller, but stayed on powerfully to win. The time after at Chepstow he shouldn't have won again. He pulled the jockey's arms out for 95% of the race, and still managed to have enough energy to deny the runner-up.
Last time out, he was running from out of the weights in a Class 1 handicap at Cheltenham and still managed to run a corker by finishing fourth. This is an easier assignment, and now being back in the weights, he has another good chance of getting a win.
The 7lb claimer has struck up a nice partnership with the horse, and takes off a healthy amount of weight. His jumping is normally very economical and if he can settle, he has to be better than his odds of 5/1.
GambleAware