It was a profitable first day at Epsom for the Derby festival, but it should've been a lot better.
Call Margot definitely should have won, and it would have been a big win at 28/1 advised odds. I don't think the jockey is to blame, and it's more the instructions that connections gave Sam James. They seem very content with having her held up from off the pace, and it caused problems yet again. She finished off with a rattle and should've won.
Seagulls Eleven was very game in the finish under Oisin Murphy, who was strong in the saddle. It looked like last year's winner was going to get it over the line, but Seagulls Eleven kept finding.
Stem didn't look in love with the track and never got going.
Alcantor 4/1 (1pt) – Epsom 1.30
Based on how Stem ran yesterday on his first run at Epsom, it's always a gamble going for a horse who has never encountered this track before. However, with the rain that has landed, I think he is worth giving a chance.
Alcantor was a very solid horse when he was trained in France, and particularly on soft ground. He made a fairly underwhelming start to live under Joseph O'Brien, but he was weak in the market before the race started, and it looked like a pipe-opener. The yard has started the season off strongly, and I think the drop back to 7f and getting his ground gives him a solid chance.
The favourite is starting to get very short. His form from last year is very strong, but his form has come on quicker ground, so I think you've got to take him on, and the most obvious candidate is Alcantor.
La Brodeuse 3/1 (1pt) – Musselburgh 3.28
I think if La Brodeuse was given a slightly kinder draw, she would be around 2/1, but from stall 7, it gives a few more questions.
It's not a ridiculously wide draw, but Musselburgh is a track that favours front-runners. If she doesn't break well from the gates, she could find herself in a bit of trouble, but based on how she ran last time, she should be fine.
She ran well to finish second on her stable debut on the all-weather last time out, and there was decent money for her. If she has come on for that run in terms of fitness, I think she is the most likely winner of this Listed race. Her stablemate is the joint favourite and has some solid form, but over a furlong shorter. Based on how she sees out her races, I think she is better over six furlongs.
My selection was ahead of Havana Pusey last time out, and that horse has the fitness edge over her, so I can't see a reverse in the form. The Richard & Peter Fahey runner is interesting with the weight-for-age allowance, but they've gone down the jockey booking to give Barry McHugh a chance on this horse, which is a bit alarming.
GambleAware