Pacific Mission 5/1 (3pl) – Epsom 2.05
I can see the angle of betting on Sparks Fly, she is a soft ground lover and handles the track, but 9st 11lbs makes it a tough task. As for the rest of the field, I'm not convinced, especially the second favourite, who should have been sold after finishing second in a French classic.
Pacific Mission is an unexposed three-year-old who gets all the weight from the older horses, and it's a big chunk due to the distance. She is rated 109, and gets over a stone from the favourite, which means if they were to run to their ratings, the favourite would have to run to 124 to win. Obviously, horse maths doesn't always work out like that, but I do think my selection has a solid chance.
She was second in a Group 1 at Del Mar last year, and was second in a Group 2 at Doncaster on good to soft. We don't know if she'll handle softer ground, but being by Lope De Vega, you'd like to believe she will. 5/1 seems a fair enough price, in a fairly ordinary race.
Convergent 13/2 (2pl) – Epsom 2.40
Taking on one of the best horses in the world probably isn't the smartest of ideas, but I've always been a believer in Convergent. Sometimes, he throws his own races in the bin before giving himself the chance. He can pull too hard in his races, and if he does that in this race, he's got no chance. However, if he is settled, I think there is a possibility of hitting the frame at the very least.
I think he is best on soft ground, and 13/2 seems a decent enough price. I think he will drift, as EVS on Calandagan is deemed as a very good price, so as he shortens, my selection will drift. It's a shame there are only six runners, as it does mean the EW market isn't as good. However, he has shown he is in good form this year, and has some solid form in Ireland last year, so I'll take my chance.
Stormy Impact 14/1 (5pl) – Epsom 3.15
This could be a carbon copy of the Call Margot run in the three-year-old Dash race on Friday, but I'm going to go with my gut with Stormy Impact, who won for me at this meeting last year.
This is going to be run at a stupidly fast pace, especially with Eclairage running from the front. I was very tempted to give a chance to the Irish raider, who could potentially last home at a track like Epsom, but I'll be hoping he doesn't, and that he sets it up for a closer.
Stormy Impact got going extremely late to win the three-year-old variant of this race last year, and I'll be hoping for the same. The soft ground should make this a stamina test over the five furlongs, especially with the fast pace, and I think that will suit Stormy Impact. It all comes down to whether he can get the breaks when needed under Warren Fentiman.
Action 16/1 (3pl) – Epsom 4.00
I think you're always in with a chance in the Classic races when you're on an Aidan O'Brien horse, even when you're on one of his supposed ‘lesser' chances. Aidan has some serious ammunition in this race, and Action seems to be going under the radar quite a bit.
Wayne Lordan has swept up a lot of big wins in the last 10 years when riding the horses that Ryan overlooks, and there's nothing to suggest that this can't be another. Action seems far too big a price to ignore, and the softening ground has to be in his favour.
He was second to Hawk Mountain in a Group 1 last year on heavy ground. That horse was second in the French Derby last weekend, and Action was staying on over the mile trip that day. This season, he hasn't got his head in front, but he could be coming to boil, and the Derby trip could be what he wants.
He is by Frankel, and out of a mare who has produced Lambourn, who won this race 12 months ago. Stall 11 isn't ideal, but Wayne is a good enough jockey to overcome that, and the first time cheekpieces could be there to spruce him up.
GambleAware